據(jù)新華社，印度新聞信息局12月29日發(fā)布的年終經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)估報(bào)告顯示，印度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）當(dāng)前已超過日本，成為世界第四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，有望三年內(nèi)趕超德國(guó)。

India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy with a size of $4.18 trillion, and is poised to overtake Germany to become the third-largest by 2030, the government has said.

圖源：NDTV

這篇題為《2025年，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵之年》的報(bào)告寫道，印度是全球增長(zhǎng)最快的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一，并具備保持這一勢(shì)頭的良好條件�！坝《菺DP達(dá)4.18萬(wàn)億美元，超過日本成為世界第四大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，且有望在今后兩年半到三年內(nèi)取代德國(guó)，躋身世界前三。到2030年，印度GDP預(yù)計(jì)將增至7.3萬(wàn)億美元�！�

"With GDP valued at $4.18 trillion, India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, and is poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next 2.5 to 3 years with a projected GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030," according to a government release providing a snapshot of reforms in 2025.

據(jù)印度時(shí)報(bào)，官方最終要以國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）2026年發(fā)布的年度GDP核算數(shù)據(jù)為準(zhǔn)。

A final confirmation will depend on the data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the first half of 2026 when the final figures for 2025 will be released.

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織此前預(yù)測(cè)，到2026年，印度GDP將達(dá)4.51萬(wàn)億美元，日本GDP同期預(yù)計(jì)為4.46萬(wàn)億美元，屆時(shí)印度將超過日本。

今年8月，美國(guó)因印度持續(xù)購(gòu)買俄羅斯原油對(duì)其加征巨額關(guān)稅，引發(fā)外界對(duì)印度經(jīng)濟(jì)擔(dān)憂，但印度政府對(duì)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景仍保持樂觀態(tài)度。報(bào)告說，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，體現(xiàn)了其“在全球貿(mào)易持續(xù)不確定性下的韌勁”。

New Delhi's upbeat assessment comes despite economic worries after Washington in August hit New Delhi with huge tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil.

India said continued growth reflects its "resilience amid persistent global trade uncertainties".

記者8月21日在印度首都新德里拍攝的街景 圖源：新華社

不過，從其他一些衡量指標(biāo)來(lái)看，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)前景可能“沒那么樂觀”。世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年印度人均GDP僅為2694美元，為同期日本人均GDP（32487美元）的十二分之一，是德國(guó)人均GDP（56103美元）的二十分之一。

報(bào)告顯示，印度14億人口中，超過四分之一群體介于10歲至26歲�！白鳛槭澜缟献钅贻p的國(guó)家之一，印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景取決于其能否創(chuàng)造高質(zhì)量就業(yè)崗位，從而有效吸納不斷增長(zhǎng)的勞動(dòng)力，實(shí)現(xiàn)包容性和可持續(xù)性增長(zhǎng)�！�

Government figures show that more than a quarter of India's 1.4 billion people are aged between 10 and 26. Creating enough well-paid jobs for millions of young graduates is an upcoming hurdle, but the report offered a rosy outlook.

"As one of the world's youngest nations, India's growth story is being shaped by its ability to generate quality employment that productively absorbs its expanding workforce and delivers inclusive, sustainable growth," a note in the review said.

來(lái)源：新華社 印度時(shí)報(bào) NDTV AFP

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