凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的提名，一度引發(fā)市場(chǎng)劇烈波動(dòng)。Warsh說(shuō)過(guò)什么？以下是他本人言論匯總，由“流動(dòng)性筆記”整理，供讀者參考。

全文約12000余字

沃什，放言變革美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的人

美國(guó)時(shí)間周五早盤，白銀現(xiàn)貨暴跌

一、2006年：入職確認(rèn)聽(tīng)證會(huì)

"I hope that my prior experience on Wall Street, particularly my nearly 7 years at Morgan Stanley, would prove beneficial to the deliberations and communications of the Federal Reserve." （我希望我此前在華爾街的經(jīng)歷，特別是在摩根士丹利近7年的工作，能對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的審議和溝通有所裨益。）

二、2007年：危機(jī)前夕

2007年3月「Market Liquidity」演講

"The benefits of greater liquidity are substantial, through higher asset prices and more efficient transfer of funds from savers to borrowers. Historical episodes indicate, however, that markets can become far less liquid due to increases in investor risk aversion and uncertainty." （流動(dòng)性充裕的好處是實(shí)質(zhì)性的……但歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，市場(chǎng)可能因投資者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡和不確定性上升而變得流動(dòng)性嚴(yán)重不足。）

"While policymakers and market participants know with certainty that these episodes will occur, they must be humble in their ability to predict the timing, scope, and duration of these periods of financial distress." （雖然政策制定者和市場(chǎng)參與者確知這些事件會(huì)發(fā)生，但他們必須對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)這些金融困境時(shí)期的時(shí)機(jī)、范圍和持續(xù)時(shí)間保持謙卑。）

2007年9月 Albany大學(xué)演講

關(guān)于成長(zhǎng)背景：

"I learned much of what I need to know about the real economy in my first eighteen years here." （我在這里（紐約州上州）的前十八年學(xué)到了理解真實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)所需的大部分知識(shí)。）

2007年11月「The End of History?」演講

"If the end of economic history were at hand, what would it look like? You would almost assuredly find strong, synchronized global economic growth; favorable inflation readings and anchored inflation expectations; low global risk premiums and low term premiums; muted volatility across asset markets..." （如果經(jīng)濟(jì)的歷史終結(jié)即將到來(lái)，它會(huì)是什么樣子？你幾乎肯定會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁、同步的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；良好的通脹數(shù)據(jù)和錨定的通脹預(yù)期；低全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)和低期限溢價(jià)；各資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)率低迷……）

"In my view, recent financial turmoil should not be considered an accident of history. Rather, it is History's latest reminder to policymakers and market participants alike that we ought to be humble in our convictions and cautious in our deeds." （在我看來(lái)，近期的金融動(dòng)蕩不應(yīng)被視為歷史的意外。相反，它是歷史對(duì)政策制定者和市場(chǎng)參與者的最新提醒——我們應(yīng)該對(duì)自己的信念保持謙卑，對(duì)自己的行為保持謹(jǐn)慎。）

"Market confidence ultimately begot complacency." （市場(chǎng)信心最終滋生了自滿。）

三、2008年：金融危機(jī)

2008年3月18日 FOMC會(huì)議（貝爾斯登獲救前）

"I think, most fundamentally, that the business model of investment banks has been threatened, and I suspect the existing business model will not endure through this period." （我認(rèn)為最根本的是，投資銀行的商業(yè)模式已受到威脅，我懷疑現(xiàn)有的商業(yè)模式無(wú)法度過(guò)這一時(shí)期。）

2008年3月 FOMC會(huì)議

關(guān)于通脹：

"On the inflation front, there is little reason to be confident that inflation will decline." （在通脹方面，幾乎沒(méi)有理由相信通脹會(huì)下降。）

2008年5月21日「The Federal Funds Rate in Extraordinary Times」演講

"This may be the most pronounced time of testing for central banks in a generation." （這可能是一代人以來(lái)對(duì)央行最嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn)時(shí)刻。）

"The Fed is not omniscient. Neither are our tools uniquely and perfectly suited to ensure that the ills of yesterday do not recur. Nor can we guarantee that our policy response alone will set the economy on a steady and obvious path to unequalled prosperity. We run serious risks if we overstate our knowledge or overplay our hand." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不是無(wú)所不知的。我們的工具也不是獨(dú)一無(wú)二、完美無(wú)缺地能確保昨日的弊病不再重演。我們也無(wú)法保證僅憑我們的政策回應(yīng)就能讓經(jīng)濟(jì)走上通往無(wú)與倫比繁榮的穩(wěn)定明確道路。如果我們夸大自己的知識(shí)或過(guò)度出手，就會(huì)面臨嚴(yán)重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。）

"Look no further than the financial wizards in the financial sector recently who were convinced that risks were manageable and returns exponential. Milton Friedman reminded us long ago, and Edmund Phelps more recently, of the 'consequences of conceit.'" （看看金融業(yè)最近那些自以為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可控、回報(bào)呈指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)的金融奇才就夠了。米爾頓·弗里德曼很久以前就提醒過(guò)我們，埃德蒙·費(fèi)爾普斯最近也提醒過(guò)我們"自負(fù)的后果"。）

"Even if the economy were to weaken somewhat further, we should be inclined to resist expected, reflexive calls to trot out the hammer again. Policy actions should reinforce the notion with stakeholders that further hammering needs to be done, but it needs to be accomplished by the financial institutions themselves." （即使經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步走弱，我們也應(yīng)傾向于抵制那些預(yù)期中的、條件反射式的再次祭出大錘的呼聲。政策行動(dòng)應(yīng)向利益相關(guān)者強(qiáng)化這樣一個(gè)觀念：進(jìn)一步的錘打工作需要做，但它需要由金融機(jī)構(gòu)自己來(lái)完成。）

"In my view, only when private financial agents resume their role as the primary source of liquidity in markets will proper credit market functioning and support for economic growth be restored." （在我看來(lái)，只有當(dāng)私人金融主體恢復(fù)其作為市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性主要來(lái)源的角色時(shí)，信貸市場(chǎng)的正常運(yùn)作和對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的支持才能恢復(fù)。）

2008年9月 FOMC會(huì)議（雷曼倒閉后）

"I'm still not ready to relinquish my concerns on the inflation front." （我仍然不準(zhǔn)備放棄對(duì)通脹的擔(dān)憂。）

Bernanke對(duì)此的反應(yīng)（第二天給Don Kohn的郵件中發(fā)泄）：

"I find myself conciliating holders of the unreasonable opinion that we should be tightening even as the economy and financial system are in a precarious position and inflation/commodity pressures appear to be easing." （我發(fā)現(xiàn)自己在安撫那些持不合理觀點(diǎn)的人——他們認(rèn)為即使經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融體系處于危險(xiǎn)境地、通脹/大宗商品壓力似乎正在緩解，我們也應(yīng)該收緊政策。）

2008年11月「The Promise and Peril of the New Financial Architecture」演講

"During the past several months, this domestic housing-centric diagnosis has also been subjected to a natural experiment. Among U.S. financial institutions, asset quality concerns are no longer confined to the mortgage sector." （在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月里，這種以國(guó)內(nèi)住房為中心的診斷也經(jīng)受了一場(chǎng)自然實(shí)驗(yàn)。在美國(guó)金融機(jī)構(gòu)中，資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量擔(dān)憂已不再局限于抵押貸款部門。）

四、2009年：危機(jī)后

2009年4月6日「The Panic of 2008」演講

"The encouraging news, I should note, is that panics end." （我應(yīng)該指出，令人鼓舞的消息是，恐慌會(huì)結(jié)束。）

"It is difficult for the strong to thrive, let alone survive, when they reside in a neighborhood that is being decimated. And when panic conditions persist and long-held articles of faith lose their following, markets often react indiscriminately." （當(dāng)強(qiáng)者居住在一個(gè)正被摧毀的街區(qū)時(shí)，他們很難繁榮，更不用說(shuō)生存了。當(dāng)恐慌狀況持續(xù)存在，長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的信條失去追隨者時(shí)，市場(chǎng)往往會(huì)不加區(qū)分地做出反應(yīng)。）

2009年6月「Defining Deviancy」演講

關(guān)于"正常"的定義：

標(biāo)題本身就很有意味——"定義偏差"，暗示危機(jī)改變了人們對(duì)"正常"的認(rèn)知。

2009年9月25日「Longer Days, Fewer Weekends」演講

"If policymakers insist on waiting until the level of real activity has plainly and substantially returned to normal — and the economy has returned to self-sustaining trend growth — they will almost certainly have waited too long." （如果決策者堅(jiān)持等到實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平明顯且實(shí)質(zhì)性回歸正常……他們幾乎肯定會(huì)等得太久。）

"There is a risk, of much debated magnitude, that the unusually high level of reserves, along with substantial liquid assets of the banking system, could fuel an unanticipated, excessive surge in lending." （有一個(gè)規(guī)模尚有爭(zhēng)議的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，即異常高的儲(chǔ)備金水平，加上銀行體系的大量流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)，可能會(huì)引發(fā)意想不到的、過(guò)度的貸款激增。）

"The second anniversary of the onset of the financial crisis—and about a year from the darkest days of the Panic of 2008—is no time to declare victory, scarcely the moment to hand out medals." （金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)兩周年——距離2008年恐慌最黑暗的日子約一年——現(xiàn)在不是宣布勝利的時(shí)候，也幾乎不是頒發(fā)獎(jiǎng)?wù)碌臅r(shí)刻。）

"The final recounting of economic history, I submit, will judge that winning the battle against the Panic of 2008 was a necessary but insufficient condition to win the peace and ensure a strong foundation for economic prosperity." （我認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)史的最終記載將會(huì)判定，贏得與2008年恐慌的戰(zhàn)斗是贏得和平、確保經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)的必要但非充分條件。）

"'Whatever it takes' is said by some to be the maxim that marked the battle of the last year. But, it cannot be an asymmetric mantra, trotted out only during times of deep economic and financial distress, and discarded when the cycle turns." （有人說(shuō)"不惜一切代價(jià)"是標(biāo)志著過(guò)去一年戰(zhàn)斗的格言。但它不能是一個(gè)不對(duì)稱的咒語(yǔ)——只在深度經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融困境時(shí)期祭出，而在周期轉(zhuǎn)向時(shí)就拋棄。）

五、2010年：QE2辯論

2010年2月3日「Regulation and Its Discontents」演講

"The Panic of 2008 that exacerbated the recession is the result of a multitude of flawed private and public practices, with regulatory error being only one part." （加劇衰退的2008年恐慌是眾多有缺陷的私人和公共實(shí)踐的結(jié)果，監(jiān)管錯(cuò)誤只是其中一部分。）

"Reforms must encourage robust competition. Market entry and market exit can be a more effective means of developing a stronger, more resilient financial system. The too-big-to-fail problem could be mitigated if smaller, dynamic firms seized market share from less nimble incumbents." （改革必須鼓勵(lì)強(qiáng)有力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入和市場(chǎng)退出可以成為發(fā)展更強(qiáng)大、更有韌性的金融體系的更有效手段。如果規(guī)模較小、充滿活力的公司從不那么靈活的在位者手中奪取市場(chǎng)份額，"大到不能倒"的問(wèn)題可能會(huì)得到緩解。）

2010年3月26日「An Ode to Independence」演講

"There is no such thing as being a little bit independent or a little bit credible. So, central bankers must be constantly vigilant, especially during times of fiscal expansion." （不存在'有點(diǎn)獨(dú)立'或'有點(diǎn)可信'這回事。因此，央行家必須時(shí)刻保持警惕，尤其是在財(cái)政擴(kuò)張時(shí)期。）

"Even if the central bank can does not mean the central bank should." （即使央行能做到，也不意味著央行應(yīng)該做。）

"The Panic of 2008 is now prologue. The Fed's actions going forward—especially when economic conditions still appear unsatisfactory—should go a long way to demonstrating its allegiance to mission." （2008年恐慌現(xiàn)在只是序幕。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今后的行動(dòng)——特別是在經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況仍然不盡人意時(shí)——應(yīng)該大力證明其對(duì)使命的忠誠(chéng)。）

"Central bankers are entrusted with a revocable privilege. So, declarations of independence by Fed policymakers are heartening. But independence is ours to demonstrate, not principally to declare." （央行家被賦予的是一種可撤銷的特權(quán)。因此，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策制定者對(duì)獨(dú)立性的宣言令人鼓舞。但獨(dú)立性是我們要證明的，而不主要是要宣示的。）

2010年11月 FOMC會(huì)議（QE2表決）

失業(yè)率接近10%時(shí)對(duì)Bernanke說(shuō)：

"If I were in your chair, I would not be leading the Committee in this direction, and frankly, if I were in the chair of most people around this room, I would dissent." （如果我坐在你的椅子上，我不會(huì)帶領(lǐng)委員會(huì)走這個(gè)方向；坦率說(shuō)，如果我坐在這房間大多數(shù)人的位置上，我也會(huì)投反對(duì)票。）

"I think we are removing much of the burden from those that could actually help reach these objectives, particularly the growth and employment objectives, and we are putting that onus strangely on ourselves rather than letting it rest where it should lie." （我認(rèn)為我們正在把本應(yīng)由其他人承擔(dān)的重?fù)?dān)攬到自己身上——特別是增長(zhǎng)和就業(yè)目標(biāo)——而不是讓它落在本該承擔(dān)的地方。）

"We are too accepting of dangerous policies from others that have been long in the making, and we should put the burden on them." （我們太容易接受其他人長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)制定的危險(xiǎn)政策了，我們應(yīng)該把負(fù)擔(dān)放到他們身上。）

2010年11月8日「Rejecting the Requiem」演講（SIFMA年會(huì)）

投票支持QE2后一周：

開(kāi)場(chǎng)定調(diào)：

"They call it 'the new normal.' I call it the new malaise." （他們叫它"新常態(tài)"。我叫它新低迷。）

"I reject this view. I consider this emerging ethos to be dangerous and defeatist and debunked by America's own exceptional economic history." （我拒絕這種觀點(diǎn)。我認(rèn)為這種新興的精神風(fēng)貌是危險(xiǎn)的、失敗主義的，并且被美國(guó)自身非凡的經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史所駁斥。）

"The dour economic tale being told is not inevitable. Our citizens are not unwitting victims of some unavoidable fate. The current period of subpar growth and high unemployment is real, but it need not persist. We should not lower our expectations. We should improve our policies." （正在被講述的悲觀經(jīng)濟(jì)故事并非不可避免。我們的公民不是某種不可避免命運(yùn)的無(wú)辜受害者。當(dāng)前低于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的增長(zhǎng)和高失業(yè)率是真實(shí)的，但它不必持續(xù)下去。我們不應(yīng)該降低期望。我們應(yīng)該改進(jìn)政策。）

關(guān)于短期主義：

"Chronic short-termism in the conduct of economic policy has done much to bring us to this parlous point." （經(jīng)濟(jì)政策執(zhí)行中的慢性短期主義在很大程度上把我們帶到了這個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的境地。）

關(guān)于財(cái)政刺激：

"These programs may well have boosted gross domestic product (GDP) for a quarter or two, but that is scarcely a full accounting of their effects. These stimulus programs did little, in my view, to put the economy on a stronger, more sustainable trajectory." （這些計(jì)劃可能確實(shí)在一兩個(gè)季度內(nèi)提振了GDP，但這幾乎不能完全解釋它們的效果。在我看來(lái)，這些刺激計(jì)劃幾乎沒(méi)有讓經(jīng)濟(jì)走上更強(qiáng)勁、更可持續(xù)的軌道。）

"Sound fiscal policy must do more than reacquaint consumers with old, bad habits." （健全的財(cái)政政策必須做的不僅僅是讓消費(fèi)者重新養(yǎng)成舊的壞習(xí)慣。）

關(guān)于供給側(cè)：

"If untreated, the cyclical becomes structural. Persistent weakness in the labor markets, in effect, permanently disqualifies more workers from a place in the labor force." （如果不加治療，周期性就會(huì)變成結(jié)構(gòu)性。勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的持續(xù)疲軟實(shí)際上會(huì)永久性地使更多工人失去在勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)中的位置。）

關(guān)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)角色：

"The Federal Reserve is not a repair shop for broken fiscal, trade, or regulatory policies." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不是修復(fù)破碎的財(cái)政、貿(mào)易或監(jiān)管政策的修理店。）

"Given what ails us, additional monetary policy measures are, at best, poor substitutes for more powerful pro-growth policies." （鑒于我們的病因，額外的貨幣政策措施充其量只是更強(qiáng)有力增長(zhǎng)政策的拙劣替代品。）

"The Fed can lose its hard-earned credibility—and monetary policy can lose its considerable sway—if its policies overpromise or underdeliver." （如果政策承諾過(guò)多或兌現(xiàn)不足，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能失去來(lái)之不易的信譽(yù)——貨幣政策也可能失去其相當(dāng)大的影響力。）

"We should be leery of drawing inapt lessons from the crisis to the current policy conjuncture. Lender-of-last-resort authority cannot readily be converted into fighter-of-first-resort power." （我們應(yīng)該警惕從危機(jī)中得出不恰當(dāng)?shù)慕逃?xùn)……最后貸款人權(quán)力不能輕易轉(zhuǎn)化為首要作戰(zhàn)者的力量。）

關(guān)于QE2風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：

"Expanding the Fed's balance sheet is not a free option. There are significant risks that bear careful monitoring by the FOMC." （擴(kuò)大美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表不是免費(fèi)的選擇。存在重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，需要FOMC仔細(xì)監(jiān)控。）

"The Treasury market is special. It plays a unique role in the global financial system. It is a corollary to the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. The prices assigned to Treasury securities—the risk-free rate—are the foundation from which the price of virtually every asset in the world is calculated." （國(guó)債市場(chǎng)是特殊的。它在全球金融體系中扮演著獨(dú)特角色。它是美元作為世界儲(chǔ)備貨幣角色的推論。國(guó)債證券的價(jià)格——無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率——是計(jì)算世界上幾乎所有資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的基礎(chǔ)。）

"As the Fed's balance sheet expands, it becomes more of a price maker than a price taker in the Treasury market." （隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的擴(kuò)張，它在國(guó)債市場(chǎng)上越來(lái)越像價(jià)格制定者，而非價(jià)格接受者。）

"The Fed's expanded participation in the long-term Treasury market also runs the more subtle risk of obfuscating price signals about total U.S. indebtedness." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在長(zhǎng)期國(guó)債市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)大參與還存在一個(gè)更微妙的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——模糊關(guān)于美國(guó)總債務(wù)的價(jià)格信號(hào)。）

"Extraordinary measures tend to beget extraordinary countermeasures. Second-order effects can have first-order consequences." （非常措施往往會(huì)招致非常對(duì)策。二階效應(yīng)可能產(chǎn)生一階后果。）

六、2011年：辭職

2011年2月10日致奧巴馬總統(tǒng)辭職信

未給出具體原因，任期原本到2018年1月31日。

Larry Kudlow評(píng)價(jià)（CNBC）：

"a hard money hawk"（強(qiáng)硬貨幣鷹派）

七、離開(kāi)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)后（2011-2025）

2014年「Warsh Review」（英國(guó)央行評(píng)審）

核心論點(diǎn)：

透明度不是越多越好。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公開(kāi)FOMC記錄后，"自由流暢討論被事先準(zhǔn)備的罐頭演講取代"。

2015年CNBC采訪

關(guān)于市場(chǎng)定價(jià)失真：

"Financial markets and the Treasury market are telling us almost nothing about the state of the economy because central banks are influencing those prices with every word, with every nuanced speech from every reserve bank president." （金融市場(chǎng)和國(guó)債市場(chǎng)幾乎沒(méi)有告訴我們?nèi)魏侮P(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的信息，因?yàn)檠胄姓谟妹恳粋�(gè)詞、每一位地區(qū)聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席的每一篇細(xì)微演講影響著那些價(jià)格。）

"We would be better off if markets were setting prices instead of taking their lead from a bunch of government officials seven years into a U.S. economic recovery." （如果讓市場(chǎng)來(lái)定價(jià)，而不是在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇七年后仍由一群政府官員來(lái)引導(dǎo)，我們會(huì)好得多。）

"This strikes me as quite inconsistent with the original ideas of what QE would be." （這在我看來(lái)與QE最初設(shè)想的樣子相當(dāng)不一致。）

"Interest rates need to be set in financial markets, and interest rates are not set in financial markets when the Federal Reserve and the world's other central banks are the buyers of first and last resort." （利率需要由金融市場(chǎng)來(lái)設(shè)定，而當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和世界其他央行成為第一和最后買家時(shí)，利率就不是由金融市場(chǎng)設(shè)定的。）

2015年10月26日《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》專欄（與Michael Spence合著）

「The Fed Has Hurt Business Investment – QE is Partly to Blame for Record Share Buybacks and Meager Capital Spending」

"We believe that QE has redirected capital from the real domestic economy to financial assets at home and abroad." （我們認(rèn)為QE已經(jīng)將資本從國(guó)內(nèi)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)移到國(guó)內(nèi)外的金融資產(chǎn)。）

"In this environment, it is hard to criticize companies that choose 'shareholder friendly' share buybacks over investment in a new factory. But public policy shouldn't bias investments to paper assets over investments in the real economy." （在這種環(huán)境下，很難批評(píng)那些選擇"股東友好型"股票回購(gòu)而非投資新工廠的公司。但公共政策不應(yīng)該偏向紙質(zhì)資產(chǎn)投資而非實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)投資。）

"Central banks have been quite successful in stoking risk-taking by investors in financial markets. Clearly, market participants believe central bankers use QE, among other reasons, to put a floor under financial asset prices." （央行在刺激金融市場(chǎng)投資者承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面相當(dāng)成功。顯然，市場(chǎng)參與者相信央行使用QE的原因之一是為金融資產(chǎn)價(jià)格設(shè)置底線。）

"QE reduces volatility in the financial markets, not the real economy. In fact, much like 2007, actual macroeconomic risk may be highest when market measures of volatility are lowest." （QE降低的是金融市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)性，而非實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的波動(dòng)性。事實(shí)上，就像2007年一樣，當(dāng)市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性指標(biāo)最低時(shí)，實(shí)際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能最高。）

2016年8月24日《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》專欄

「The Federal Reserve Needs New Thinking – Its Models are Unreliable, its Policies Erratic and its Guidance Confusing. It is also Politically Vulnerable」

"The conduct of monetary policy in recent years has been deeply flawed… A robust reform agenda requires more rigorous review of recent policy choices and significant changes in the Fed's tools, strategies, communications and governance." （近年來(lái)貨幣政策的執(zhí)行存在嚴(yán)重缺陷……一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的改革議程需要對(duì)近期政策選擇進(jìn)行更嚴(yán)格的審查，以及對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的工具、策略、溝通和治理進(jìn)行重大改變。）

"Two major obstacles must be overcome: groupthink within the academic economics guild, and the reluctance of central bankers to cede their new power." （必須克服兩個(gè)主要障礙：學(xué)術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)行會(huì)內(nèi)部的群體思維，以及央行家不愿放棄其新權(quán)力。）

"The Fed often treats financial markets as a beast to be tamed, a cub to be coddled, or a market to be manipulated. It appears in thrall to financial markets, and financial markets are in thrall to the Fed, but only one will get the last word." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)常常把金融市場(chǎng)當(dāng)作一頭需要馴服的野獸、一只需要寵溺的幼崽、或一個(gè)需要操縱的市場(chǎng)。它似乎被金融市場(chǎng)所奴役，而金融市場(chǎng)也被美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)所奴役，但只有一方會(huì)有最后發(fā)言權(quán)。）

"A simple, troubling fact: From the beginning of 2008 to the present, more than half of the increase in the value of the S&P 500 occurred on the day of Federal Open Market Committee decisions." （一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單而令人不安的事實(shí)：從2008年初到現(xiàn)在，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)價(jià)值增長(zhǎng)的一半以上發(fā)生在聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)決策當(dāng)天。）

"The groupthink gathers adherents even as its successes become harder to find. The guild tightens its grip when it should open its mind to new data sources, new analytics, new economic models, new communication strategies, and a new paradigm for policy." （群體思維不斷吸引追隨者，即使其成功變得越來(lái)越難找。行會(huì)在應(yīng)該向新數(shù)據(jù)源、新分析方法、新經(jīng)濟(jì)模型、新溝通策略和新政策范式敞開(kāi)心扉時(shí)卻收緊了控制。）

關(guān)于職能蔓延：

"Real reform should reverse the trend that makes the Fed a general purpose agency of government. Many guild members believe that central bankers—nonpartisan, high-minded experts—are particularly well-suited to expand their policy remit." （真正的改革應(yīng)該扭轉(zhuǎn)使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)成為政府通用機(jī)構(gòu)的趨勢(shì)。許多行會(huì)成員認(rèn)為，央行家——無(wú)黨派、高尚的專家——特別適合擴(kuò)大其政策職權(quán)范圍。）

2017年《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》專欄

建議將通脹目標(biāo)從2%降至1%-2%區(qū)間：

"When the broader trends begin to turn — for example, in labor markets or output — the Fed should take account of the new prevailing signal." （當(dāng)更廣泛的趨勢(shì)開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)變——例如勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)或產(chǎn)出——美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)該考慮新的主導(dǎo)信號(hào)。）

提出"趨勢(shì)依賴"（trend dependence）取代"數(shù)據(jù)依賴"（data dependence）。

2018年與Bernanke同臺(tái)回顧QE

"My overriding concern about continued QE, then and now, involves the misallocations of capital in the economy and the misallocation of responsibility in our government." （我對(duì)持續(xù)QE的首要擔(dān)憂，過(guò)去如此現(xiàn)在亦然，涉及經(jīng)濟(jì)中的資本錯(cuò)配和政府中的責(zé)任錯(cuò)配。）

"Misallocations seldom operate under their own name. They choose other names to hide behind. They tend to linger for years in plain sight. Until they emerge with force at the most inauspicious of times and do unexpected harm to the economy." （錯(cuò)配很少以自己的名義運(yùn)作。它們選擇其他名稱來(lái)隱藏。它們往往在眾目睽睽之下徘徊多年。直到它們?cè)谧畈患臅r(shí)刻以力量涌現(xiàn)，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成意想不到的傷害。）

關(guān)于Volcker的軼事（Warsh多次復(fù)述）

被提名美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事前拜訪Volcker：

"He said, Kevin, there's something I need to tell you. This job you're signing up for, really is quite simple. It really only requires two things." （他說(shuō)，Kevin，有件事我需要告訴你。你要簽約的這份工作，其實(shí)很簡(jiǎn)單。它真的只需要兩件事。）

（Warsh說(shuō)他當(dāng)時(shí)拿出筆和本子準(zhǔn)備記下——但從未透露Volcker具體說(shuō)了什么。）

八、2025年：重返公眾視野

2025年4月25日「Central Banking at a Crossroads」演講（G30/IMF）

完整演講稿關(guān)鍵段落：

開(kāi)場(chǎng)：

"I cannot think of a time of greater economic consequence since 1980…some may believe the biggest threat to our economy comes from outsiders who seek to change the status quo…I don't agree…I believe the predominant risk comes from choices made inside the four walls of our most important economic institutions." （我想不到自1980年以來(lái)有比現(xiàn)在更具經(jīng)濟(jì)重要性的時(shí)刻……有些人可能認(rèn)為我們經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的最大威脅來(lái)自那些試圖改變現(xiàn)狀的外部人士……我不同意……我認(rèn)為主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)自我們最重要經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)四面墻內(nèi)做出的選擇。）

關(guān)于機(jī)構(gòu)信任：

"To be trusted, economic institutions must be trustworthy. To be trustworthy, they must prove themselves competent." （要被信任，經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)必須值得信任。要值得信任，它們必須證明自己有能力。）

"Economic institutions must also maintain epistemic humility—that is, accepting that knowledge, even great knowledge, has its limits." （經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)還必須保持認(rèn)識(shí)論上的謙卑——也就是說(shuō)，承認(rèn)知識(shí)，即使是偉大的知識(shí)，也有其局限性。）

關(guān)于危機(jī)時(shí)期：

"Nothing about the period was easy. We made good calls and mistakes, both. Inevitably, the hardest question then—and the most salient now—was the Fed's role and responsibility." （那段時(shí)期沒(méi)有任何事情是容易的。我們做出了正確的決定，也犯了錯(cuò)誤。不可避免地，當(dāng)時(shí)最難的問(wèn)題——也是現(xiàn)在最突出的問(wèn)題——是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的角色和責(zé)任。）

引用Volcker的警告：

"After one particularly intense weekend that resulted in extraordinary policy support, former Chairman Paul Volcker commented: The Fed had gone 'to the very edge of its lawful and implied power, transcending certain long embedded central banking principles and practices.' We took that as the equivalent of a brushback pitch—high and tight—from a strong institutional ally to his successors." （在一個(gè)特別緊張的周末導(dǎo)致非常規(guī)政策支持之后，前主席保羅·沃爾克評(píng)論說(shuō)：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)走到了'其合法和隱含權(quán)力的最邊緣，超越了某些長(zhǎng)期嵌入的央行原則和慣例。'我們把這當(dāng)作相當(dāng)于一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的制度盟友對(duì)其繼任者發(fā)出的警告球——又高又緊。）

"But Volcker's warning has gone largely unheeded, even to this day." （但沃爾克的警告在很大程度上被忽視了，甚至直到今天。）

核心批評(píng)：

"In my view, forays far afield—for all seasons and all reasons—have led to systematic errors in the conduct of macroeconomic policy." （在我看來(lái)，各種場(chǎng)合、各種理由的越界遠(yuǎn)征——導(dǎo)致了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策執(zhí)行中的系統(tǒng)性錯(cuò)誤。）

"The Fed has acted more as a general-purpose agency of government than a narrow central bank. Institutional drift has coincided with the Fed's failure to satisfy an essential part of its statutory remit, price stability. It has also contributed to an explosion of federal spending. And the Fed's outsized role and underperformance have weakened the important and worthy case for monetary policy independence." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)更像是政府的通用機(jī)構(gòu)，而非狹義的央行。制度漂移與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)未能滿足其法定職責(zé)的核心部分——價(jià)格穩(wěn)定——同時(shí)發(fā)生。它還導(dǎo)致了聯(lián)邦支出的爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)過(guò)大的角色和表現(xiàn)不佳削弱了貨幣政策獨(dú)立性這一重要而有價(jià)值的論點(diǎn)。）

關(guān)于"快餐式"政策：

"Frequent changes to the Fed's metrics—including its professed preferred measures of inflation—are beneath the high standing of the central bank." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)指標(biāo)的頻繁變化——包括其聲稱的首選通脹指標(biāo)——有損央行的崇高地位。）

"I do not find the current Fed policy of 'data dependence' of much real value. We should care little about two numbers to the right of the decimal point in the latest government release. Breathlessly awaiting trailing data from stale national accounts—subject to significant, subsequent revision—is evidence of false precision and analytic complacency." （我認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)當(dāng)前的"數(shù)據(jù)依賴"政策沒(méi)有多少實(shí)際價(jià)值。我們不應(yīng)該太在意最新政府發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)小數(shù)點(diǎn)后的兩位數(shù)字。屏息等待陳舊國(guó)民賬戶的滯后數(shù)據(jù)——這些數(shù)據(jù)會(huì)經(jīng)歷重大的后續(xù)修訂——是虛假精確和分析自滿的證據(jù)。）

"Near-term forecasting is another distracting Fed preoccupation. Economists are not immune to the frailties of human nature. Once policymakers reveal their economic forecast, they can become prisoners of their own words." （近期預(yù)測(cè)是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)另一個(gè)分心的執(zhí)念。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也無(wú)法免于人性的弱點(diǎn)。一旦政策制定者透露他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)，他們就可能成為自己言語(yǔ)的囚徒。）

"Forward-guidance—a tool rolled out to great fanfare in the financial crisis—has little role to play in normal times. Moving markets with rolling Fed incantations is tempting, but unhelpful." （前瞻性指引——在金融危機(jī)中大張旗鼓推出的工具——在正常時(shí)期幾乎沒(méi)有作用。用滾動(dòng)的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)咒語(yǔ)來(lái)撬動(dòng)市場(chǎng)是誘人的，但沒(méi)有幫助。）

"The central bank should find new comfort in working without applause and without the audience at the edge of its seats." （央行應(yīng)該在沒(méi)有掌聲、沒(méi)有觀眾屏息以待的情況下工作，并從中找到新的舒適。）

關(guān)于財(cái)政主導(dǎo)：

"I struggle to absolve the Fed of the nation's fiscal profligacy. Fed leaders encouraged government spending when times were tough, a few years back. But did not call for fiscal discipline at the time of sustained growth and full employment." （我很難免除美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)國(guó)家財(cái)政揮霍的責(zé)任。幾年前，在困難時(shí)期，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人鼓勵(lì)政府支出。但在持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)和充分就業(yè)時(shí)期卻沒(méi)有呼吁財(cái)政紀(jì)律。）

"The Fed has been the most important buyer of US treasury debt—and other liabilities backed by the US government—since 2008. The Fed's $7 trillion balance sheet is nearly an order of magnitude larger than the day I joined." （自2008年以來(lái)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一直是美國(guó)國(guó)債——以及其他由美國(guó)政府支持的債務(wù)——最重要的買家。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)7萬(wàn)億美元的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表幾乎比我加入時(shí)大了一個(gè)數(shù)量級(jí)。）

關(guān)于QE：

"I strongly supported this crisis-time innovation, then and now. But when the crisis ended, the Fed never retraced its steps." （我強(qiáng)烈支持這種危機(jī)時(shí)期的創(chuàng)新，過(guò)去如此現(xiàn)在亦然。但當(dāng)危機(jī)結(jié)束時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)從未收回它的腳步。）

"I worried mightily in the summer and fall of 2010—a time of strong growth and financial stability—that the decision to buy more treasury bonds—would involve the Fed in the messy political business of fiscal policy. QE2 was announced. I disagreed with the decision, and resigned from the Fed soon after." （我在2010年夏秋——一個(gè)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁、金融穩(wěn)定的時(shí)期——非常擔(dān)心購(gòu)買更多國(guó)債的決定會(huì)讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)卷入財(cái)政政策的混亂政治事務(wù)中。QE2宣布了。我不同意這個(gè)決定，不久后便辭去了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的職務(wù)。）

"QE—with some fits and starts in the 2010s—has become a near permanent feature of central bank power and policy. Fiscal policymakers—that is, elected members of Congress—found it considerably easier appropriating money knowing that the government's financing costs would be subsidized by the central bank." （QE——在2010年代有些起起落落——已經(jīng)成為央行權(quán)力和政策幾乎永久的特征。財(cái)政政策制定者——即國(guó)會(huì)當(dāng)選成員——發(fā)現(xiàn)，知道政府的融資成本將由央行補(bǔ)貼，撥款變得容易多了。）

關(guān)于貨幣主導(dǎo)vs財(cái)政主導(dǎo)：

"Fiscal dominance—where the nation's debts constrain monetary policymakers—was long thought by economists to be a possible end-state. My view is that monetary dominance—where the central bank becomes the ultimate arbiter of fiscal policy—is the clearer and more present danger."

（財(cái)政主導(dǎo)——即國(guó)家債務(wù)約束貨幣政策制定者——長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)被經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為是一種可能的最終狀態(tài)。我的觀點(diǎn)是，貨幣主導(dǎo)——即央行成為財(cái)政政策的最終仲裁者——是更清晰、更現(xiàn)實(shí)的危險(xiǎn)。）

關(guān)于"經(jīng)濟(jì)印記"理論：

"I proffer a theory of economic imprinting whereby the policy choices of prior periods make the economy more vulnerable to shocks and less able to adjust organically. Each time the Fed jumps into action, the more it expands its size and scope, encroaching further on other macroeconomic domains. More debt is accumulated…more capital is misallocated…more institutional lines are crossed…risks of future shocks are magnified…and the Fed is compelled to act even more aggressively the next time." （我提出一個(gè)"經(jīng)濟(jì)印記"理論，即先前時(shí)期的政策選擇使經(jīng)濟(jì)更容易受到?jīng)_擊，更難以有機(jī)調(diào)整。每次美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)跳入行動(dòng)，它擴(kuò)大規(guī)模和范圍的程度就越大，進(jìn)一步侵入其他宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。更多債務(wù)積累……更多資本錯(cuò)配……更多制度界限被跨越……未來(lái)沖擊的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)被放大……美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)被迫下次采取更激進(jìn)的行動(dòng)。）

"Simply stated, path dependency is driving policy. We need to be careful that it's not driving into a ditch." （簡(jiǎn)單說(shuō)，路徑依賴正在驅(qū)動(dòng)政策。我們需要小心它不會(huì)駛?cè)霚侠�。�?/p>

關(guān)于氣候和多元化：

"'Climate change' and 'inclusion' are politically-charged issues. People of good conscience have their own views and motivations. Elected officials are tasked with evaluating data, synthesizing views, charting policy, and granting authority, if desired, to executive branch agencies. The Fed, however, has neither the expertise nor the prerogative to make political judgments in these areas. The Fed's remit is not a suggestion. Or a jumping off point." （"氣候變化"和"多元化"是政治化的議題。有良知的人有自己的觀點(diǎn)和動(dòng)機(jī)。當(dāng)選官員的任務(wù)是評(píng)估數(shù)據(jù)、綜合觀點(diǎn)、制定政策，并在需要時(shí)授權(quán)行政部門機(jī)構(gòu)。然而，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)既沒(méi)有專業(yè)知識(shí)也沒(méi)有特權(quán)在這些領(lǐng)域做出政治判斷。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的職權(quán)范圍不是建議，也不是跳板。）

引用最高法院判例：

"As Supreme Court jurisprudence makes clear, Congress is not in the business of hiding elephants in mouseholes." （正如最高法院判例明確指出的，國(guó)會(huì)不是在老鼠洞里藏大象的行當(dāng)。）

關(guān)于通脹：

"The intellectual errors that contributed to the Great Inflation include some mix of the following: the central bank came to believe that its price stability objective was largely self-executing…that big, black-box DSGE models were anchored in reality…that monetary policy had nothing to do with money…that the central bank was a bystander to forces outside of its control…that the surge of Putin and the pandemic were blameworthy for inflation rather than the surge of government spending and printing." （導(dǎo)致大通脹的智識(shí)錯(cuò)誤包括以下某種組合：央行開(kāi)始相信其價(jià)格穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)在很大程度上是自我執(zhí)行的……那些大型黑箱DSGE模型植根于現(xiàn)實(shí)……貨幣政策與貨幣無(wú)關(guān)……央行是其控制之外力量的旁觀者……普京崛起和疫情應(yīng)為通脹負(fù)責(zé)，而非政府支出和印鈔的激增。）

"Stable prices were the Fed's plot armor. Like in the movies, it was protection for the protagonist against those who would dare a challenge. The Fed's roving remit and grand ambitions, however, expanded its surface area and exposed its vulnerability even more." （穩(wěn)定的價(jià)格是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的主角光環(huán)。就像電影里一樣，它是對(duì)敢于挑戰(zhàn)者的主角的保護(hù)。然而，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)游移的職權(quán)范圍和宏大抱負(fù)擴(kuò)大了其暴露面積，使其更加脆弱。）

關(guān)于獨(dú)立性：

"Central bank independence is more often cited than defined. Independence is not a policy goal unto itself. It's a means of achieving certain important and particular policy outcomes." （央行獨(dú)立性被引用的次數(shù)多于被定義的次數(shù)。獨(dú)立性本身不是政策目標(biāo)。它是實(shí)現(xiàn)某些重要和特定政策結(jié)果的手段。）

"'Independence' is reflexively declared when any Fed policy is criticized. Congress has granted important functions to the Fed, for example, in bank regulation and supervision. I do not believe the Fed is owed any particular deference in bank regulatory and supervisory policy." （每當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策受到批評(píng)時(shí)，"獨(dú)立性"就會(huì)被條件反射式地宣稱。國(guó)會(huì)授予了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)重要職能，例如銀行監(jiān)管。我不認(rèn)為在銀行監(jiān)管政策方面美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)該得到任何特別的尊重。）

"I strongly believe in the operational independence of monetary policy as a wise political economy decision. And I believe that Fed independence is chiefly up to the Fed." （我堅(jiān)信貨幣政策的操作獨(dú)立性是一個(gè)明智的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)決定。我相信美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的獨(dú)立性主要取決于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)自己。）

"That does not mean central bankers should be treated as pampered princes. When the monetary outcomes are poor, the Fed should be subjected to serious questioning, strong oversight, and, when they err, opprobrium." （這并不意味著央行家應(yīng)該被當(dāng)作嬌生慣養(yǎng)的王子對(duì)待。當(dāng)貨幣結(jié)果不佳時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)該受到嚴(yán)肅質(zhì)疑、強(qiáng)有力的監(jiān)督，當(dāng)他們犯錯(cuò)時(shí)，應(yīng)該受到譴責(zé)。）

關(guān)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的歷史：

"A narrow central bank has more going for it than mere tradition. Our constitutional republic is accepting of an independent central bank, only if it sticks closely to its congressionally directed duty and successfully performs its tasks. Ours is, after all, our third experiment with a central bank…not because of the success of its predecessors, but their failure." （狹義央行的優(yōu)勢(shì)不僅僅是傳統(tǒng)。我們的憲政共和國(guó)接受獨(dú)立央行，前提是它緊密堅(jiān)持國(guó)會(huì)指定的職責(zé)并成功執(zhí)行其任務(wù)。畢竟，我們的央行是第三次實(shí)驗(yàn)……不是因?yàn)槠淝叭蔚某晒�，而是因�(yàn)樗鼈兊氖�。�?/p>

"We should remember that the revealed preference of the body politic is a deep distaste for inflation—and also, for bailouts and power grabs." （我們應(yīng)該記住，政治體制的顯示偏好是對(duì)通脹的深深厭惡——同樣也是對(duì)救助和權(quán)力攫取的厭惡。）

核心治理原則：

"The governance objective is clear: it's to make the central bank safe for democracy, not to make democracy safe for the central bank." （治理目標(biāo)是明確的：是讓央行對(duì)民主安全，而不是讓民主對(duì)央行安全。）

結(jié)論：

"The Fed's current wounds are largely self-inflicted, and its plot armor is showing its wear. A strategic reset is necessary to mitigate losses of credibility, changes in standing, and most important—worse economic outcomes for our fellow citizens." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)當(dāng)前的傷口在很大程度上是自己造成的，其主角光環(huán)正在顯示磨損。有必要進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略重置，以減輕信譽(yù)損失、地位變化，以及最重要的——我們同胞更糟糕的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)果。）

"Central bankers are trained to be careful with our critiques, lest the daylight reveal the magic. A bigger risk, however, is that of the sorcerer's apprentice: the misuse of magical powers producing trouble." （央行家被訓(xùn)練要謹(jǐn)慎對(duì)待我們的批評(píng)，以免陽(yáng)光暴露魔術(shù)。然而，更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是巫師學(xué)徒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：濫用魔法力量制造麻煩。）

"We should be unworried about violating pieties, prepared to endure periodic frowns of disapproval. It's high time we reclaim intellectual freedom and get policy back on track." （我們不應(yīng)該擔(dān)心違反虔誠(chéng)，要準(zhǔn)備好忍受周期性的不滿皺眉�，F(xiàn)在是我們收復(fù)知識(shí)自由、讓政策回歸正軌的時(shí)候了。）

"Central bank legitimacy demands nothing less." （央行的合法性要求如此，不能少于此。）

2025年5月28日 Hoover Institution Uncommon Knowledge采訪

"You keep printing a trillion here and a trillion there. It's gonna catch up to you, Peter." （你在這里印一萬(wàn)億，在那里印一萬(wàn)億。這會(huì)追上你的，Peter。）

"When the Federal Reserve prints trillions, especially in benign times, it changes everything. And it almost is a signal to the rest of Congress we're doing it and so can you." （當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)印刷數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元，尤其是在良好時(shí)期，它會(huì)改變一切。它幾乎是在向國(guó)會(huì)其他部門發(fā)出信號(hào)：我們?cè)谶@樣做，你也可以。）

關(guān)于QE1支持但后續(xù)反對(duì)：

"I supported it, and I supported it with many colleagues under the view of we're gonna put this very dangerous, risky stuff back behind the covered glass until there's another crisis. We really never did that." （我支持它，我和許多同事一起支持它，基于這樣的看法：我們要把這些非常危險(xiǎn)、有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的東西放回玻璃罩后面，直到另一場(chǎng)危機(jī)到來(lái)。我們從未真正這樣做。）

"So the story you are going to tell about the subsequent QEs during a period that I would say was reasonably strong growth, reasonably stable financial markets, reasonable periods of stable prices, we start doing it for all seasons and all reasons, and in so doing we raise the bar for when another crisis hits. Because whatever you were doing couldn't possibly be enough." （所以你要講的關(guān)于后續(xù)QE的故事——在我認(rèn)為是相當(dāng)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)、相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定的金融市場(chǎng)、相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定價(jià)格的時(shí)期——我們開(kāi)始為各種季節(jié)、各種理由這樣做，這樣做我們提高了下次危機(jī)來(lái)臨時(shí)的門檻。因?yàn)闊o(wú)論你之前做了什么都不可能足夠。）

2025年7月13日 Fox News采訪

"The Fed has the policy mix exactly wrong—it has a big balance sheet, like we're in the '08 crisis or the 2020 pandemic, and has rates that are too high." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策組合完全錯(cuò)誤——它有一個(gè)大的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，就像我們處于08年危機(jī)或2020年疫情中一樣，而利率又太高。）

"It needs to shrink the Fed balance sheet and cut interest rates. In so doing, Main Street can get a much lower cost of credit." （它需要縮減美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表并降低利率。這樣，普通大街就能獲得更低的信貸成本。）

2025年7月17日 CNBC Squawk Box采訪

"We need regime change in the conduct of policy. The credibility deficit lies with the incumbents that are at the Fed, in my view." （我們需要在政策執(zhí)行中進(jìn)行政權(quán)更迭。在我看來(lái)，信譽(yù)赤字在于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的現(xiàn)任者。）

"Their hesitancy to cut rates, I think, is actually quite a mark against them. The specter of the miss they made on inflation, it has stuck with them." （我認(rèn)為，他們對(duì)降息的猶豫實(shí)際上是對(duì)他們相當(dāng)不利的標(biāo)記。他們?cè)谕浬戏赶碌腻e(cuò)誤的幽靈一直纏繞著他們。）

"I think regime change at the Fed will happen in due course." （我認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政權(quán)更迭將在適當(dāng)時(shí)候發(fā)生。）

關(guān)于Treasury-Fed協(xié)議：

"We need a new Treasury-Fed accord, like we did in 1951 after another period where we built up our nation's debt and we were stuck with a central bank that was working at cross purposes with the Treasury. That's the state of things now." （我們需要一個(gè)新的財(cái)政部-美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)協(xié)議，就像我們?cè)?951年所做的那樣，當(dāng)時(shí)也是在我們積累了國(guó)家債務(wù)、央行與財(cái)政部目標(biāo)相悖的時(shí)期之后。這就是現(xiàn)在的情況。）

"If we have a new accord, then the Fed chair and the Treasury secretary can describe to markets plainly and with deliberation, 'This is our objective for the size of the Fed's balance sheet.'" （如果我們達(dá)成新協(xié)議，那么美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席和財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)可以清晰而審慎地向市場(chǎng)描述，"這是我們對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模的目標(biāo)。"）

2025年9月 Hoover Conference

"There are many benefits of a smaller balance sheet, including better economic outcomes. We have two policy instruments, imperfect substitutes for each other, working sometimes at cross purposes, sometimes working together. But if the printing press could be quiet, you can have low policy rates." （較小的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表有許多好處，包括更好的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)果。我們有兩種政策工具，彼此不完美的替代品，有時(shí)相互矛盾，有時(shí)協(xié)同工作。但如果印鈔機(jī)可以安靜下來(lái)，你就可以有低政策利率。）

2025年11月《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》專欄

「The Federal Reserve's Broken Leadership」

"Inflation is a choice, and the Fed's track record under Chairman Jerome Powell is one of unwise choices." （通脹是一種選擇，鮑威爾主席領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的記錄就是不明智選擇的記錄。）

"Americans would have higher pay and greater purchasing power if the Fed got its act together." （如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)振作起來(lái)，美國(guó)人會(huì)有更高的工資和更大的購(gòu)買力。）

"AI will be a significant disinflationary force, increasing productivity and bolstering American competitiveness. Productivity improvements should drive significant increases in real take-home wages. A 1-percentage-point increase in annual productivity growth would double standards of living within a single generation." （AI將是一個(gè)顯著的反通脹力量，提高生產(chǎn)率并增強(qiáng)美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。生產(chǎn)率提高應(yīng)該推動(dòng)實(shí)際稅后工資的顯著增長(zhǎng)。年生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)提高1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)將使一代人內(nèi)的生活水平翻倍。）

"The Fed should abandon the dogma that inflation is caused when the economy grows too much and workers get paid too much." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)該拋棄通脹是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)快、工人工資過(guò)高造成的教條。）

"The Fed's bloated balance sheet, designed to support the biggest firms in a bygone crisis era, can be reduced significantly. That largesse can be redeployed in the form of lower interest rates to support households and small and medium-size businesses." （美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)臃腫的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表——旨在支持過(guò)去危機(jī)時(shí)代的最大公司——可以大幅縮減。這種慷慨可以以較低利率的形式重新部署，以支持家庭和中小企業(yè)。）

"The cost of curiosity is approaching zero, owing to a new age of American innovation. And the rewards for curiosity are surging, thanks in large part to pro-growth policies championed by President Trump." （由于美國(guó)創(chuàng)新的新時(shí)代，好奇心的成本正在接近零。而好奇心的回報(bào)正在飆升，這在很大程度上要?dú)w功于特朗普總統(tǒng)倡導(dǎo)的促增長(zhǎng)政策。）*

— THE END —

紫京講談

財(cái)經(jīng)領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)作者

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