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作者：朱兆一

北京大學匯豐商學院世界經(jīng)濟智庫副教授

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"},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-pm-slice":"0 0 "},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-pm-slice":"0 0 "},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 0px;"},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"}]" bdsfid="420">今年早些時候爆發(fā)的戰(zhàn)爭讓大多數(shù)人猝不及防。這場涉及美國、以色列和伊朗的直接軍事對抗，令整個海灣地區(qū)陷入數(shù)十年來最嚴重的惡性循環(huán)。沙特石油設(shè)施遭襲起火，卡塔爾暫停液化天然氣生產(chǎn)，阿聯(lián)酋三天內(nèi)承受近900枚導彈與無人機襲擊。這些國家無一主動求戰(zhàn)，卻無一例外深陷其中。

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此時令人格外不安的是，即便1991年海灣戰(zhàn)爭也有清晰的邏輯、明確的目標和可預(yù)見的終點。而這一次，無人知道戰(zhàn)爭將如何收場。

這場戰(zhàn)爭的根源無法追溯至某一次襲擊或某一項政策誤判。我們所目睹的，是伊朗與以色列兩國近乎必然的碰撞，而它們都陷入自己制造的結(jié)構(gòu)性困局，我將之稱為“不可能三角”：三個相互矛盾的核心國家目標，可以同時追求其中任何兩個，卻永遠無法三者兼得。除非這兩個三角被打破，否則中東永無持久和平，只會有以不同形式反復燃燒的戰(zhàn)火。

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伊朗的三角：真主、核彈與面包

伊朗三角的頂點分別是：伊斯蘭共和國的意識形態(tài)認同和反美反以的基本立場；持續(xù)追求核武能力；以及經(jīng)濟增長與民生福祉的現(xiàn)實需求。

1979年革命誕生的政權(quán)，其合法性建立在反抗美國霸權(quán)、反對以色列的存在之上。這并非務(wù)實派可以悄悄修改的外交立場，而是整個體系的意識形態(tài)基石，是最高領(lǐng)袖權(quán)威的來源。放棄它，政權(quán)存在的理由便隨之瓦解。

其核邏輯冷酷而自洽。伊朗戰(zhàn)略家從利比亞的卡扎菲身上吸取了教訓：放棄核計劃，最終身死國滅。而擁有核武器的國家，即便孤立，也無人敢輕易觸碰。核彈既是地區(qū)強權(quán)的象征、“抵抗軸心”領(lǐng)袖的資格憑證，更是最終防止政權(quán)更迭的威懾手段。

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" bdsfid="653">當?shù)貢r間3月12日凌晨，在耶路撒冷上空，以軍防空攔截彈擊中導彈，導彈碎片落下。（圖源：新華社）

任何一個困局都無法靠武力解決。美以可以摧毀伊朗導彈系統(tǒng)，清除革命衛(wèi)隊指揮中心，迫使伊朗付出慘重代價，但這一切都無法消解伊斯蘭共和國的意識形態(tài)邏輯，也無法解決伊朗年輕人的就業(yè)危機，更不會改變伊朗對核威懾的根本訴求。

同樣，伊朗導彈可以耗盡以色列與美國的攔截彈庫存，向海灣國家施加巨大壓力，但無法改變巴勒斯坦人口現(xiàn)實，無法修復以色列不斷受損的國際形象，也無法松動極右翼對執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟的政治鉗制。軍事力量無法打破結(jié)構(gòu)性的困局。

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出路及其代價

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" bdsfid="737">在美國總統(tǒng)克林頓的斡旋下，巴勒斯坦民族解放運動領(lǐng)袖阿拉法特（右）與以色列總理拉賓（左）握手一幕成為歷史性的一刻。

拉賓曾經(jīng)嘗試過，但遭暗殺。貝京曾與埃及實現(xiàn)和平，但付出了真正的政治代價。歷史上出現(xiàn)過有勇氣的以色列領(lǐng)導人，問題只在于下一位何時出現(xiàn)。

美國的作用無法回避。數(shù)十年近乎無條件的支持，實際上削弱了本可推動以色列政治做出艱難選擇的外部壓力。當任何批評都被本能貼上反猶標簽、每個聯(lián)合國決議都被否決時，強硬立場就相當于獲得了一份永久的免責保護。只有改變這種結(jié)構(gòu)性動態(tài)，“兩國方案”才有可能從外交辭令變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實政策。

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被分析報告遺忘的人

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在所有戰(zhàn)略框架和地緣算計之后，最終回到一個更簡單的問題：真正受苦的是誰？

一位朋友2025年底到訪伊朗。德黑蘭并非她想象的模樣，那里有真實的咖啡館文化，有時尚的年輕人，其活力遠超外界想象。但在一家咖啡館，柜臺后的年輕女孩在結(jié)賬時悄悄塞給她一張折好的紙條。她想在迪拜找工作，寫下了自己的聯(lián)系方式。

這個細節(jié)我始終無法忘懷——把希望折進一張紙片，遞給只交談五分鐘的陌生人。要絕望到何種地步，才會如此？這位女孩并非沒有能力，她能在國際化的咖啡館工作，能用英語與外國顧客交流，能在短暫接觸中判斷對方值得信任。她只是活在一個看不到前路的架構(gòu)中。

對加沙的孩子而言，代價則觸及生存的根基。那里正在造就一代沒有真正童年的人，他們在廢墟中長大，失去父母，目睹家園被毀。這種成長經(jīng)歷會在成年后留下怎樣的印記？會埋下怎樣的種子？20年后地區(qū)將為此付出怎樣的代價？軍事簡報不會回答這些問題。

這場戰(zhàn)爭必須結(jié)束。不是因為任何一方達到了目標，而是因為多拖延一天，就有更多普通人為他們領(lǐng)導人解不開的政治死結(jié)付出生命。兩個“不可能三角”不會自行消解，戰(zhàn)火會以不同形式反復降臨，直到某種更根本的東西發(fā)生改變。但在那之前，先讓槍炮停下來吧。

政治的終極本質(zhì)是“人”。所有關(guān)于安全剛需、核威懾、意識形態(tài)合法性的宏大敘事，最終都必須回答一個樸素問題：它是否讓普通人的生活變得更好？如果答案是否定的，那么這些敘事所維持的，或許不過是政客保住權(quán)力的工具，而非真正的國家利益。*

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