2026年3月3日，汪濤接受了金磚國家問題獨立媒體ThinkBRICS知名學(xué)者 洛倫佐·瑪麗亞·帕奇尼, Lorenzo Maria Pacini （

目前為

貝盧諾多洛米蒂大學(xué)UniDolomiti in Belluno和羅馬圣多米尼克高等研究院SSML San Domenico in Rome的教授，并擔(dān)任地緣政治系主任。

他創(chuàng)立了多極化問題高級研究所，這是世界上第一個致力于研究這一主題的學(xué)術(shù)機構(gòu)。他目前擔(dān)任日內(nèi)瓦高等技術(shù)大學(xué)UniCampus HETG University副教授，并兼任戰(zhàn)略與安全科學(xué)學(xué)院院長。

嘉賓：汪濤——中國分析師、前中興通訊副總經(jīng)理、作家

主題：“伊朗、金磚國家與多極壓力測試”

時長：約25-30分鐘

語言：英語

開場序列

主持人（洛倫佐）：

“戰(zhàn)爭可以由一方發(fā)起，但其結(jié)束需要雙方共同達成協(xié)議?！?/p>

這一見解來自我們今天的嘉賓，中國分析家汪濤，出自他的著作

歡迎來到“金磚五國”板塊。我是洛倫佐·瑪麗亞·帕奇尼。

今天，隨著中東局勢再度升級，我們不禁要問：金磚國家聯(lián)盟是否已準(zhǔn)備好迎接其迄今為止最嚴(yán)峻的考驗？

我們邀請到：汪濤——工程師，曾任中興通訊副總經(jīng)理，著有八本關(guān)于技術(shù)、地緣政治和科學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)的書籍，并經(jīng)常就中國的戰(zhàn)略前景發(fā)表見解。

汪先生，感謝您加入Think BRICS。

第一部分：伊朗與金磚國家凝聚力測試

主持人（洛倫佐）：

汪先生，在您的著作《超越戰(zhàn)爭》中，您指出，雖然一方可以發(fā)動沖突，但結(jié)束沖突需要雙方達成共識。如今，隨著中東緊張局勢的升級，這一原則顯得尤為重要。

問題一：

“金磚國家集團中，各國在這場危機中的利益訴求大相徑庭：俄羅斯和中國支持德黑蘭，但2026年金磚國家主席國印度則持謹慎態(tài)度，以保護恰赫巴哈爾走廊。金磚國家如何將這一分歧時刻轉(zhuǎn)化為推動真正共同外交政策的催化劑，而不是讓國家利益破壞多極化項目？”

汪濤答：為了讓更多觀眾聽懂，我先用中文解答，然后再用英文。不僅是金磚國家，大量發(fā)展中國家之所以失去很多發(fā)展機遇，原因就在于不能團結(jié)一心，被美國和以色列等刻意制造和挑起矛盾。中國在中東地區(qū)作出了非常多促進大家團結(jié)一心的努力，例如勸和伊朗與沙特，促使巴勒斯坦各派聯(lián)合等。中國在全球各地都是以負責(zé)任的勸和促談的態(tài)度去做事的。其他國家有些理解，但很多國家可能并不理解中國為什么要這么做。中國這么做是有自身傳統(tǒng)文化深刻影響的，中國是一個以“和合”為最重要文化的國家和民族。我們這么做并不僅僅是簡單地出于道德，而是對長期歷史發(fā)展經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)的總結(jié)。中國并不是象其他西方殖民國家那樣以掠奪作為崛起的手段，而是以發(fā)展產(chǎn)業(yè)，創(chuàng)造財富來實現(xiàn)國家和民族的發(fā)展。中國為什么要以和合文化作為國際政治的基礎(chǔ)？過去可能在中國也很少人能給出清晰的解釋。

我在國內(nèi)給很多人解釋過中國這么做非常理性和現(xiàn)實的原因：假設(shè)有一個100萬人口的國家，通過大力發(fā)展軍事，利用軍事手段去掠奪一個1000萬人口的國家，一旦獲得成功，很可能迅速地就可以實現(xiàn)富裕了。但是，中國是一個14億人口的國家，如果我們?nèi)ヂ訆Z一個1000萬人口的國家，即使把對方的財富全部掠奪完，被14億人一分，對中國人增加財富幾乎沒有什么影響。所以，我們希望全世界和平團結(jié)，大家一起發(fā)展產(chǎn)業(yè)，長期地一起創(chuàng)造財富，只有這樣，中國才能與大家一起發(fā)展起來。我們希望所有國家都發(fā)展成功，并不是出于善良，而是只有這樣，中國的產(chǎn)品才能有更大的市場。所以，中國說希望與全世界所有國家合作共贏不僅是非常真誠的，而且是非常理性的，是與中國自身的根本利益一致的。

美國有3.4億人，雖然遠比中國少，但也是一個規(guī)模很大的國家。他本質(zhì)上也不能靠掠奪長期生存，這并不是關(guān)乎于道德，而是一個完全理性的考慮。但很遺憾，美國人沒有這個智慧，他們的歷史太短了。只有在吃盡苦頭以后才有可能慢慢明白?，F(xiàn)在的美國之所以陷入很瘋狂的狀態(tài)，就是因為繼承和習(xí)慣了掠奪方式，其實他在今天的掠奪依然很成功，但他的規(guī)模太大了，已經(jīng)不可能有哪個國家被美國掠奪了以后可以滿足他的胃口。所以，無論他的掠奪如何成功，都依然是遠遠吃不飽，不可能延續(xù)下去。

印度與中國一樣都是大國，現(xiàn)在印度的人口甚至已經(jīng)超過了中國。印度有自己的歷史和文化，但受到殖民、尤其是一個很小很小國家的英國殖民者太多的影響。印度有大國的雄心，卻并沒有理解到如何去做一個大國的最基本邏輯。大國擁有掠奪的最大資本，反而不能靠掠奪去生存，這其實是一個非常非常簡單的算術(shù)題。

中國已經(jīng)發(fā)展成為世界經(jīng)濟與科技強國，并且持有和合的文化，如果能夠充分理解到這一點，應(yīng)當(dāng)是全世界各國發(fā)展的歷史機會，尤其是金磚國家的發(fā)展機會。我個人特別重視印度，甚至認為過去十年看中美，未來百年看中印。中印發(fā)展得好，整個地球就能夠發(fā)展得很好，如果中印關(guān)系處理不好，無論對中印雙方還是整個世界都是很大的遺憾。

金磚國家應(yīng)當(dāng)團結(jié)一心，不要被那些在掠奪文化中發(fā)展起來的傳統(tǒng)殖民國家所挑撥離間。這對全球發(fā)展中國家甚至大多數(shù)發(fā)達國家都是很重要的。

Answer: For more people understanding, i will say chinese firstly, then English.

Not only the BRICS countries, but also many developing countries have lost many development opportunities due to their inability to unite as one and the deliberate creation and provocation of conflicts by the United States, Israel, and others. China has made numerous efforts to promote unity in the Middle East, such as mediating peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia and facilitating unity among Palestinian factions. China acts responsibly in promoting peace and facilitating talks around the world. While some other countries understand this, many may not comprehend why China does so. China's actions are deeply influenced by its traditional culture, where "harmony and cooperation" are paramount to the country and its people. Our actions are not simply driven by morality, but also by a summary of long-term historical development experiences and lessons. Unlike other Western colonial countries that rose through plunder, China achieves national and ethnic development by developing industries and creating wealth. Why does China choose to use the culture of harmony and cooperation as the foundation of international politics? In the past, few people in China could give a clear explanation.

I have explained to many people in China the very rational and practical reasons behind China's actions: Suppose there is a country with a population of 1 million that, by vigorously developing its military, uses military means to plunder a country with a population of 10 million. Once successful, it is likely to quickly achieve prosperity. However, China has a population of 1.4 billion. If we were to plunder a country with a population of 10 million, even if we plundered all of its wealth, the 1.4 billion Chinese people would divide it up, making little impact on the increase of Chinese wealth. Therefore, we hope for peace and unity in the world, for everyone to develop industries together, and to create wealth together in the long run. Only in this way can China develop together with everyone else. We hope for all countries to succeed in their development, not out of kindness, but because only then will Chinese products have a larger market. So, China's desire to cooperate and achieve win-win results with all countries in the world is not only very sincere but also very rational, and it is consistent with China's own fundamental interests.

The United States has a population of 340 million, which, although far fewer than China, still makes it a large country. Essentially, it cannot survive long-term by plundering; this is not a matter of morality, but a purely rational consideration. Unfortunately, Americans lack this wisdom, as their history is too short. Only after suffering greatly can they possibly slowly understand. The reason why the United States is now in a frenzied state is because it inherited and became accustomed to the method of plundering. In fact, its plundering today is still very successful, but its scale is too large. No country can satisfy its appetite after being plundered by the United States. Therefore, no matter how successful its plundering is, it is still far from being satisfied and cannot continue.

The BRICS countries include several large nations, and India is one of them. India, like China, is a major country, and its population has even surpassed that of China. India has its own history and culture, but it has been influenced too much by colonialism, especially by the British colonialists, who are a very small country. India has the ambition of becoming a major country, but it has not understood the most basic logic of how to become one. A major country has the greatest capital for plunder, but it cannot survive by plunder. This is actually a very, very simple arithmetic problem.

China has developed into a global economic and technological powerhouse, and it embraces a culture of harmony and cooperation. If we can fully understand this, it should be a historic opportunity for the development of all countries in the world, especially for the BRICS nations. I personally attach great importance to India, and even believe that while the past decade was about China and the United States, the next century will be about China and India. If China and India develop well, the entire world will benefit. If Sino-Indian relations are not handled properly, it will be a great pity for both China and India, as well as the entire world. The BRICS countries should unite as one and not be driven apart by traditional colonial powers that have grown up in a culture of plunder. This is important for developing countries around the world, and even for most developed countries.

問：“在未來90天內(nèi)，金磚國家可以啟動哪些具體的機制——外交、金融或安全方面的機制——來展現(xiàn)團結(jié)？”

汪濤答：在針對伊朗戰(zhàn)爭的問題上，金磚國家應(yīng)當(dāng)統(tǒng)一認識到，美國和以色列這次的行為已經(jīng)遠遠超出一切人類文明的底線了。盡管我們希望世界和平，戰(zhàn)爭卻是我們不得不面對的人類活動。但即使是戰(zhàn)爭，也是必須有底線的。不經(jīng)過宣戰(zhàn)就通過戰(zhàn)爭手段去殺害一個國家的最高宗教領(lǐng)袖和政府首腦，這個太過于突破人類文明的最底線。而且美國和以色列正在把這種突破一切人類文明最底線的手段，變成一種通行的戰(zhàn)爭模式。這個是不能容忍的，因為如果容忍這一點，人類就沒有任何法律和最基本的規(guī)則，返回到最原始最野蠻的狀態(tài)了。如果其他國家也跟著這么做，整個世界就將陷入完全無序的狀態(tài)。

因此，至少在這個問題上，金磚國家應(yīng)當(dāng)明確表態(tài)反對這種突破人類一切文明最底線的做事方式。

美國和以色列這么做，目的是要通過控制金融和石油資源來控制全世界，從而實現(xiàn)更大限度的掠奪。這是美國的掠奪生存方式所決定的。如果他不從根本上改變這種生存方式，就不可能改變一切服務(wù)于掠奪的做事方式。金磚國家都應(yīng)當(dāng)充分認識到這一點，我們只能選擇通過創(chuàng)造財富來發(fā)展的基本戰(zhàn)略。認識到這一點非常重要。作為金磚國家中人口數(shù)量最大的國家，印度最需要充分認識到這一點。

Answer: On the issue of war against Iran, the BRICS countries should unanimously recognize that the actions of the United States and Israel this time have far exceeded the bottom line of all human civilization. Although we hope for world peace, war is a human activity we have to face. Even in war, there must be a bottom line. Killing the supreme religious leader and head of government of a country through war means without declaring war is too much to break through the bottom line of human civilization. Moreover, the United States and Israel are turning this means of breaking through the bottom line of all human civilization into a common war mode. This cannot be tolerated, because if it is tolerated, humanity will have no laws or basic rules and will return to the most primitive and barbaric state. If other countries follow suit, the entire world will fall into a completely disorderly state.

Therefore, at least on this issue, the BRICS countries should clearly express their opposition to this way of doing things that breaks through the bottom line of all human civilizations.

The purpose of the United States and Israel in doing so is to control the whole world by controlling financial and oil resources, thereby achieving greater plunder. This is determined by the predatory way of survival of the United States. If it does not fundamentally change this way of survival, it is impossible to change all the ways of doing things that serve plunder. The BRICS countries should fully recognize this point, and we can only choose the basic strategy of developing through creating wealth. It is very important to recognize this point. As the country with the largest population among the BRICS countries, India needs to fully recognize this point most.

? 第二部分：能源主權(quán)與霍爾木茲海峽因素

主持人（洛倫佐）：

伊朗的回應(yīng)包括暫時封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，導(dǎo)致油價飆升。與此同時，金磚國家正在推出金磚國家支付系統(tǒng)（BRICS Pay），作為SWIFT的替代方案，預(yù)計將于2026年投入使用。

問題二：

“金磚國家成員如何保護能源交易免受美國二級制裁的影響？在區(qū)域局勢長期不穩(wěn)定的情況下，中國究竟有多大能力和意愿來保障全球南方國家的能源走廊安全？”

汪濤答：金磚國家擁有世界上最大的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展?jié)摿ΑＮ磥韺δ茉吹男枨蠓浅＞薮?，需要在一切基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上脫離掠奪型國家建立的一切基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的影響。我們需要將一切基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施全部都改造成創(chuàng)造財富型，而不是延續(xù)西方殖民者所構(gòu)建的掠奪型。在這一點上，金磚國家都需要有非常清醒的認知。金磚國家支付系統(tǒng)（BRICS Pay）是非常重要和關(guān)鍵的創(chuàng)造財富型的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。盡快脫離財富掠奪型的SWIFT系統(tǒng)同樣非常重要。中國在推進人民幣國際化，有些人可能會有疑慮，人民幣會不會成為另一個美元？可以說，這是不會的。我在國內(nèi)經(jīng)常強調(diào)，一定要避免人民幣成為另一個美元。因為中國作為一個超大國家，本質(zhì)上絕不可能靠掠奪來發(fā)展。一旦走入美元式的道路，對中國的長遠未來將是毀滅性的。美國已經(jīng)作出的很清楚的榜樣。所以，人民幣國際化不會去走美元的道路同樣并不是道德，而是理性和智慧。我們要建立的創(chuàng)造財富型的國際貨幣體系。

中國在能源安全上是兩條腿走路的。一方面是通過構(gòu)建全新的財富創(chuàng)造型國際金融體系，能源供應(yīng)體系來保障傳統(tǒng)能源供應(yīng)，另一方面是大力發(fā)展新能源來減少對化石能源的過度依賴，這個對保護環(huán)境也有非常大的好處。

隨著中國軍事力量，尤其海軍力量的高速發(fā)展，中國當(dāng)然有力量和意愿來保障自身的能源安全通路，同時也是為全球提供安全保護。中國在海軍力量上發(fā)展上非常迅速，在海軍的質(zhì)量上已經(jīng)絕對壓倒性地超越美國了，現(xiàn)在中國最先進的一艘055導(dǎo)彈驅(qū)逐艦的戰(zhàn)斗力，可以將美國一整支航母戰(zhàn)斗群全部殲滅，這一點可能遠遠超出世界上絕大多數(shù)人的想象，但美軍自己是很清楚的。中國的航母技術(shù)水平上也已經(jīng)壓倒性地超過了美國海軍。只是目前中國海軍在航母的數(shù)量和其他先進戰(zhàn)艦的數(shù)量上還需要一定的積累。相信最多5年內(nèi)，中國就將具有在全球范圍內(nèi)絕對壓倒一切對手的軍事能力。全球應(yīng)當(dāng)清醒地看到這個趨勢。這將是世界和平最重要的保障。

問題只在于：因為中國所持的和合文化，我們不會依靠自己全球絕對壓倒性的軍事實力去進行掠奪，也就不會去輕易動用這種實力。不象美國和以色列那樣，他們是一種掠奪性的生存戰(zhàn)略和文化，所以特別容易去動用軍事實力，這可能會使人們更容易看到他們的軍事能力。即使是國際政治家群體，對軍事技術(shù)很清楚的人也不是很多。這很容易造成錯誤的判斷。中國所擁有的這種保障全球安全與和平的能力更好地發(fā)揮作用，也有賴于其他國家充分認識到這一潛力。這些其實都是公開的信息可以證明的。我們并不希望通過實戰(zhàn)去證明中國的軍事實力，但如果有人迫使中國去驗證，中國一定可以輕易地證明他們的這種想法特別愚蠢。

Answer: The BRICS countries possess the greatest economic development potential in the world. The future demand for energy is immense, necessitating the decoupling of all infrastructures from those established by predatory nations. We need to transform all infrastructures into wealth-creating ones, rather than perpetuating the predatory ones constructed by Western colonizers. In this regard, the BRICS countries must have a very clear understanding. The BRICS Payment System (BRICS Pay) is a very important and crucial wealth-creating infrastructure. It is equally important to quickly decouple from the wealth-predatory SWIFT system. China is promoting the internationalization of the RMB, and some people may have doubts about whether the RMB will become another dollar. It can be said that this will not happen. I often emphasize in China that we must avoid the RMB becoming another dollar. Because China, as a superpower, cannot develop by predatory means in essence. If it follows the path of the dollar, it will be devastating for China's long-term future. The United States has set a very clear example. Therefore, the RMB internationalization not following the path of the dollar is not moral, but rational and wise. We need to establish a wealth-creating international monetary system.

China adopts a dual-track approach to energy security. On the one hand, it aims to ensure traditional energy supply by establishing a brand-new wealth-creating international financial system and energy supply system. On the other hand, it is vigorously developing new energy sources to reduce excessive dependence on fossil fuels, which also greatly benefits environmental protection.

With the rapid development of China's military strength, especially its naval power, China certainly has the strength and willingness to ensure its own energy security routes, and at the same time provide security protection for the whole world. China's development in naval power has been very rapid, and its naval quality has absolutely overwhelmed that of the United States. Now, the combat capability of China's most advanced 055 guided missile destroyer can annihilate an entire US aircraft carrier battle group. This may far exceed the imagination of most people in the world, but the US military is very clear about it. China's aircraft carrier technology has also overwhelmingly surpassed that of the US Navy. However, at present, the Chinese Navy still needs to accumulate a certain number of aircraft carriers and other advanced warships. It is believed that within five years at most, China will have the military capability to absolutely overwhelm all its opponents globally. The world should be aware of this trend. This will be the most important guarantee for world peace.

The issue lies solely in this: due to China's culture of harmony and cooperation, we will not rely on our overwhelming global military strength to engage in plunder, nor will we easily employ such strength. Unlike the United States and Israel, which have a predatory survival strategy and culture, making them particularly prone to using military force, which might make their military capabilities more visible to people. Even among the international political community, there are not many individuals who are well-versed in military technology. This can easily lead to erroneous judgments. For China to fully leverage its ability to safeguard global security and peace, it also depends on other countries fully recognizing this potential. These are all facts that can be proven through open information. We do not wish to demonstrate China's military strength through actual combat, but if someone forces China to prove it, China can certainly easily demonstrate the foolishness of such thinking.

問題三（技術(shù)角度）：

“您曾參與5G基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，并撰寫過關(guān)于‘主權(quán)網(wǎng)絡(luò)’的文章。一個與西方平臺隔離的、覆蓋整個金磚國家的數(shù)字支付和物流層，能否成為降低能源貿(mào)易風(fēng)險的關(guān)鍵？”

汪濤答：應(yīng)該說，通信網(wǎng)的建設(shè)都需要遵從ITU的統(tǒng)一國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。但互聯(lián)網(wǎng)這個基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施是架構(gòu)在5G等國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施之上，并非完全主權(quán)平等的網(wǎng)絡(luò)。它的技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)主要受IETF組織管理，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的DNS（Domain Name System）深受美國左右。我們并不主張搞完全與西方隔離的數(shù)字支付和物流層，我們希望盡可能開放。因為對于網(wǎng)絡(luò)來說，越是開放，其經(jīng)濟價值就越大。網(wǎng)絡(luò)的價值是與接入網(wǎng)絡(luò)的終端數(shù)量平方成正比的。但我們的確需要以創(chuàng)造財富為基本理念去建立一切基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，尤其數(shù)字支付和物流系統(tǒng)。這些系統(tǒng)首先應(yīng)當(dāng)是不受西方控制、獨立的，然后也可以是向西方國家開放的。這些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的風(fēng)險是什么？就是因為掠奪型文化造成，要掠奪就是靠控制這些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，人為制造風(fēng)險從而才可以有效地實現(xiàn)掠奪。但如果是創(chuàng)造財富型的，其本身就不會主動去人為制造風(fēng)險，因為這只會給自己的貿(mào)易帶來損失。

Answer: It should be said that the construction of telecommunication networks needs to comply with the unified international standards of the ITU. However, the Internet, as an infrastructure, is built upon international standard infrastructures such as 5G, and it is not a network with completely equal sovereignty. Its technical standards are primarily managed by the IETF organization, and the DNS (Domain Name System) of the Internet infrastructure is heavily influenced by the United States. We do not advocate for digital payment and logistics layers that are completely isolated from the West; we hope to be as open as possible. Because for networks, the more open they are, the greater their economic value. The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of terminals connected to it. However, we do need to establish all infrastructure, especially digital payment and logistics systems, with the basic philosophy of creating wealth. These systems should first be independent and not controlled by the West, and then they can also be open to Western countries. What are the risks of these infrastructures? They are caused by a predatory culture. To plunder, one relies on controlling these infrastructures and artificially creating risks, which can effectively achieve plunder. But if they are wealth-creating, they will not actively create risks themselves, because this will only bring losses to their own trade.

第三部分：中?。焊偁庍€是合作？

主持人（洛倫佐）：

您對印度進行了深入研究——您撰寫了一書，并在印度開展過業(yè)務(wù)。如今，中印兩國正在謹慎地重啟外交接觸，但戰(zhàn)略上的不信任依然存在。

問題四：

“除了邊界爭端之外，阻礙中印在金磚國家框架內(nèi)深化合作的真正經(jīng)濟或技術(shù)障礙是什么？伊朗危機能否真正促使它們在能源安全或去美元化問題上達成一致？”

汪濤答：印度有非常特別的商業(yè)文化，就是對最低價格的極端追求?；蛘哒f，在合作中要極力地使對方的利益為零甚至為負為目標(biāo)。這種極端的文化其實很多印度人自己也深受其害。我的很多印度伙伴甚至曾問我為什么印度人會這樣，他們也很頭疼。最初他們問我的時候我非常驚訝，他們怎么會不知道自己為什么這做呢？后來我通過很長時間的研究才明白。其實類似這種不知道自己行為原因的現(xiàn)象在全世界所有國家都很普遍，中國人也是如此。有些國外的研究者往往表現(xiàn)出比中國人自己更理解中國人的行為原因，這是一個非常有意思的人類行為學(xué)現(xiàn)象。印度的這種商業(yè)文化影響極為深遠，其實是導(dǎo)致印度發(fā)展制造業(yè)極為困難的內(nèi)在根源。因為印度對自己國家企業(yè)的產(chǎn)品也是極端要求最低價，這導(dǎo)致印度的生產(chǎn)企業(yè)很難有利潤，更難去進一步研發(fā)和提升技術(shù)。

印度的這種極為特別的商業(yè)文化也深刻地影響到他們在國際關(guān)系處理上的行為。也使得很多本來有空間的合作難以達成。要想合作，必須是雙方都能獲得利益的。但印度在處理各種事務(wù)上是一定要把所有利益全部占有作為目標(biāo)，對方的利益必須為零甚至為負。這樣做事的結(jié)果就會使雙方難以獲得合作的共同利益空間。合作是一定要使雙方都有獲利空間的。

中國在這一點上就處理得非常好，所以國外投資者很喜歡在中國投資。即使美國想盡一切辦法要把在中國的資本往外趕，但最終國外投資者還是大量回到中國。一個最重要的原因就是中國不僅是允許國外公司在中國賺錢，而且是把這當(dāng)成政府的任務(wù)和考核指標(biāo)。想盡一切辦法解決國外合法的投資者在中國經(jīng)營中的問題，全力幫助他們賺到錢。在很長時間內(nèi)，很多跨國公司全球利潤的大部分都來自中國。這是中國今天成為世界工廠的根本原因所在。如果國外公司中國沒有賺到錢，很少會說是中國政府創(chuàng)造的經(jīng)營環(huán)境使他們不能賺錢，而是自身經(jīng)營或市場環(huán)境變化的問題。

這樣做的理性原因和智慧是什么？只有當(dāng)大量國外投資者都喜歡在中國投資的時候，中國的經(jīng)濟和工業(yè)才會持續(xù)地發(fā)展，并且國外企業(yè)為中國培養(yǎng)了大量世界一流的產(chǎn)業(yè)工人和管理人才。

印度有一些做得很好的地方，我經(jīng)常向中國介紹。例如印度教育中高度重視管理學(xué)的培訓(xùn)，幾乎所有學(xué)生都把MBA當(dāng)作必修課。我的介紹在中國媒體上引起了很強烈的反響，也產(chǎn)生了很廣泛的影響?，F(xiàn)在中國學(xué)生和企業(yè)員工對管理能力的培養(yǎng)越來越重視，也越來越系統(tǒng)。每一個國家都有自己優(yōu)勢的地方，也有自己弱勢的地方。但只有他們自己能夠去彌補自己弱勢的方面，其他人最多只能建議，改變不了什么。因為其他國家的人說不好的方面，首先心里肯定不愉快。但如果印度不改變自己過于極端的商業(yè)文化，未來的發(fā)展肯定會受嚴(yán)重的影響。全球很多企業(yè)最初都對印度龐大的市場抱有熱情，但最終往往都非常失望地退出。

所以，影響中印合作的其實根本不是什么邊界問題，也不是經(jīng)濟或技術(shù)問題，而是商業(yè)文化造成的根本行為方式。因為在印度遇到這種問題的西方國家企業(yè)無論數(shù)量還是嚴(yán)重程度都遠遠超過中國。

如果在合作中絕對不允許對方獲得任何利益，全部的利益只能自己獲得，那其他國家如何去與印度合作呢？這個問題也不是伊朗危機能改變的。所以，的確是印度一定要解決在合作中是否允許并保障其他國家或他國的企業(yè)能不能有利益的問題。如果這個問題不解決，其他國家就很難與印度合作。

Answer: India has a very unique business culture, which is the extreme pursuit of the lowest price. Or to put it another way, in cooperation, they strive to make the other party's interests zero or even negative. This extreme culture actually harms many Indians themselves. Many of my Indian partners even asked me why Indians behave this way, and they were also very troubled by it. When they first asked me, I was very surprised. How could they not know why they do this? Later, after a long period of research, I understood. In fact, this phenomenon of not knowing the reasons for one's own behavior is common in all countries around the world, including China. Some foreign researchers often show a better understanding of the reasons for Chinese behavior than the Chinese themselves, which is a very interesting phenomenon in human behavior studies. This business culture in India has a profound impact and is actually the inherent root cause that makes it extremely difficult for India to develop its manufacturing industry. Because India also demands the lowest price for its own products, it is difficult for Indian manufacturing enterprises to make a profit, let alone further research and technological improvement.

This extremely unique business culture in India has also profoundly influenced their behavior in handling international relations. It has also made it difficult to achieve many cooperation opportunities that were originally available. For cooperation to be possible, both parties must be able to gain benefits. However, when dealing with various matters, India always aims to possess all the benefits, with the other party's interests being zero or even negative. The result of such an approach is that it becomes difficult for both parties to find a common interest space for cooperation. Cooperation must provide a profitable space for both parties.

China has handled this aspect exceptionally well, which is why foreign investors are so fond of investing in China. Even when the United States tried every means to repatriate capital from China, foreign investors ultimately returned in large numbers. One of the most important reasons is that China not only allows foreign companies to make money in China, but also regards it as a government task and assessment indicator. Every effort is made to solve the problems encountered by legitimate foreign investors in their operations in China, and to fully assist them in making money. For a long time, many multinational companies have derived a majority of their global profits from China. This is the fundamental reason why China has become the world's factory today. If foreign companies fail to make money in China, they rarely blame the Chinese government for creating an operating environment that prevents them from making money, but rather point to issues related to their own operations or changes in the market environment.

What are the rational reasons and wisdom behind this approach? Only when a large number of foreign investors prefer to invest in China, can China's economy and industry continue to develop, and foreign enterprises cultivate a large number of world-class industrial workers and management talents for China.India has some areas where it excels, and I often introduce these to China. For instance, Indian education places great emphasis on management training, with almost all students considering MBA as a compulsory course. My introduction has sparked strong reactions in the Chinese media and has had a widespread impact. Nowadays, Chinese students and employees are paying increasing attention to the cultivation of management skills, and they are becoming more systematic in doing so. Every country has its strengths and weaknesses. However, only they themselves can address their weaknesses; others can only offer suggestions at best, but cannot change anything. Because when people from other countries point out the shortcomings, they will inevitably feel unhappy. But if India does not change its overly extreme business culture, its future development will definitely be severely affected. Many global enterprises initially harbored enthusiasm for India's vast market, but they often withdraw disappointedly in the end.

Therefore, what truly affects Sino-Indian cooperation is not the border issue, nor economic or technological issues, but fundamental behavioral patterns shaped by business culture. This is because Western companies encounter such issues far more frequently and severely than Chinese companies in India. If cooperation is conducted in such a way that absolutely no benefits are allowed to be gained by the other party, with all benefits exclusively going to oneself, how can other countries cooperate with India? This issue cannot be altered by the Iran crisis. Therefore, it is indeed imperative for India to address the question of whether to allow and ensure that other countries or their enterprises can benefit from cooperation. If this issue remains unresolved, it will be difficult for other countries to cooperate with India.

第四部分：金磚國家政策的科學(xué)方法？（24:00-29:00）

主持人(Lorenzo Maria Pacini)：

您在《科學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)原理》一書中主張，政策制定應(yīng)基于測量、實驗和跨學(xué)科分析，而非意識形態(tài)。

問題6：

“如果金磚國家想要真正提供一套替代華盛頓共識的方案，那么‘科學(xué)的’發(fā)展模式應(yīng)該是什么樣的？除了GDP之外，還有哪些指標(biāo)應(yīng)該指導(dǎo)我們集團的優(yōu)先事項？我們又該如何衡量成功？”

汪濤答：中國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者在近百年的發(fā)展過程中是逐步形成了一整套非常科學(xué)的理論體系的，只是因為西方國家推崇的“華盛頓共識”淹沒了人們理解和認識這套科學(xué)理論體系。當(dāng)然，在另一方面，這套科學(xué)的理論體系本身的闡釋還不是很完善，也影響了人們的理解。中國的這套理論體系并不是人們所說的“北京共識”可以慨括的，而是延續(xù)了近代科學(xué)革命和工業(yè)革命的一整套科學(xué)方法。這一點可能是其他國家的政治家們還沒有充分意思到的。中國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人毛澤東、鄧小平、習(xí)近平等，他們并不僅僅是政治家，而且是科學(xué)家和工程師。他們是完全遵循近代科學(xué)和工業(yè)革命的全套方法體系來建設(shè)國家的。而這套方法體系本來最初在建立過程中，歐洲人是做了很大貢獻的，但很難理解的是他們自己居然把這套科學(xué)方法全忘掉了，把國家的治理和建設(shè)問題最終推向了意思形態(tài)化，和反科學(xué)的道路。

毛澤東不僅僅是一位政治家與軍事家，他是一位社會測量學(xué)、社會實驗學(xué)領(lǐng)域的先驅(qū)。他倡導(dǎo)的方法完全是現(xiàn)代科學(xué)的方法。中國政府一再地發(fā)布文件強調(diào)要“大興調(diào)查研究之風(fēng)”。調(diào)查研究，本質(zhì)上就是社會測量與實驗。包括其他的指引中國進步的理論體系全都是與牛頓、伽利略、拉瓦錫、愛因斯坦、普朗克、瓦特、愛迪生、特拉斯等科學(xué)家、發(fā)明家和工程師完全一樣的方法。但歐洲人和美國人自己的政治卻不斷地退回到中世紀(jì)、甚至更古老的反科學(xué)愚昧狀態(tài)。這其實才是他們在今天不斷衰落的根本原因。

舉一個簡單例子：如何去測量一座大橋的建設(shè)是否成功呢？如果要按科學(xué)的方法去評價，其實非常簡單，就是看它是否達到了承重，通車能力，抗震，抗老化等等技術(shù)指標(biāo)，還有建設(shè)工期，建設(shè)成本等。如果依循科學(xué)的方法，這些技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)的確定和測量其實一點都不困難。

但是，如果人們硬要在其中加上建設(shè)工人甚至管理者里面有多少LGBT，即使建設(shè)工期拖延了十倍，成本比預(yù)算增加了十倍，甚至最后橋塌了也沒關(guān)系。那樣怎么可能有好的結(jié)果？

中國為什么在過去近百年的時間一直持續(xù)地克服新的困難，不斷獲得建設(shè)的成功？是因為我們一直堅持現(xiàn)代科學(xué)的方法，排除一切反科學(xué)的意思形態(tài)干擾。

Answer: Over the course of nearly a century of development, China's leaders have gradually formed a highly scientific theoretical system. However, the "Washington Consensus" advocated by Western countries has overshadowed people's understanding and recognition of this scientific theoretical system. On the other hand, the explanation of this scientific theoretical system itself is not yet very comprehensive, which also affects people's understanding. China's theoretical system cannot be summarized by the so-called "Beijing Consensus", but rather continues the entire set of scientific methods from the modern scientific revolution and industrial revolution. This point may not have been fully realized by politicians in other countries. They built their country by fully adhering to the comprehensive methodological system of modern science and the Industrial Revolution. Initially, Europeans made significant contributions to the establishment of this methodological system, but it is difficult to understand how they themselves completely forgot this scientific approach and ultimately pushed the governance and construction of the country towards ideological and anti-scientific paths.

Mao Zedong was not only a politician and military strategist, but also a pioneer in the fields of social measurement and social experimentation. The methods he advocated were entirely modern scientific methods. The Chinese government has repeatedly issued documents emphasizing the need to "vigorously promote the style of investigation and research." Investigation and research, in essence, are social measurement and experimentation. The theoretical systems guiding China's progress, including others, all employ methods identical to those of scientists, inventors, and engineers such as Newton, Galileo, Lavoisier, Einstein, Planck, Watt, Edison, and Tesla. However, the politics of Europeans and Americans themselves have continuously regressed to the medieval or even more ancient anti-science ignorance. This is actually the fundamental reason for their continuous decline today.

Let's take a simple example: how to measure the success of a bridge construction? If we evaluate it with scientific methods, it's actually quite simple. We just need to see if it meets technical indicators such as load-bearing capacity, traffic capacity, earthquake resistance, anti-aging, as well as construction duration and cost. If we follow scientific methods, determining and measuring these technical and economic indicators is not difficult at all.

However, if people insist on including the number of LGBT individuals among the construction workers or even managers, it doesn't matter even if the construction period is delayed tenfold, the cost increases tenfold compared to the budget, or even if the bridge collapses in the end. How can there possibly be a good outcome like that?

Why has China been able to continuously overcome new difficulties and achieve success in construction over the past century? It is because we have always adhered to modern scientific methods and eliminated all anti-scientific ideological interference.

結(jié)束語：

“展望未來六個月：我們應(yīng)該關(guān)注哪些具體的信號，才能判斷金磚國家是在構(gòu)建一個具有韌性的多極架構(gòu)，還是僅僅在應(yīng)對危機？”

汪濤答：未來6個月國際形勢可能會發(fā)生巨大的變化。無論伊朗局勢往哪個方向發(fā)展都會是如此。如果美國和以色列深陷戰(zhàn)爭的泥潭，很可能會帶來連鎖反應(yīng)，使美國的霸權(quán)危機總爆發(fā)。這會引起全球局勢的巨大動蕩，也會帶來全新的發(fā)展機遇。尤其是金磚國家的發(fā)展機遇。金磚國家需要迅速團結(jié)一心，對此作出提前應(yīng)對。因為美國霸權(quán)危機如果爆發(fā)，可能意味著美國霸權(quán)的結(jié)束，未來的世界需要金磚國家承擔(dān)主要的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)責(zé)任。金磚國家將會取代以往七國集團的地位，成為世界經(jīng)濟、政治、科技和軍事的核心。我們需要盡快為這一天的到來提前作好準(zhǔn)備。

Answer: The international situation may undergo tremendous changes in the next six months. This will be the case regardless of which direction the situation in Iran develops. If the United States and Israel are deeply embroiled in a war, it is likely to trigger a chain reaction, leading to the total outbreak of the hegemonic crisis in the United States. This will cause great turbulence in the global situation and bring new development opportunities. Especially for the BRICS countries. The BRICS countries need to quickly unite and respond in advance. Because if the hegemonic crisis of the United States breaks out, it may mean the end of American hegemony, and the future world will need the BRICS countries to assume the main leadership responsibility. The BRICS countries will replace the previous G7 status and become the core of the world's economy, politics, technology, and military. We need to prepare for the arrival of this day as soon as possible.

主持人（洛倫佐）：

汪濤先生，感謝您分享這些真知灼見。您的觀點提醒我們，多極化不僅僅是增加新的極點，更重要的是構(gòu)建能夠承受壓力的體系。

各位觀眾：你們怎么看？金磚國家能否化危機為凝聚力？請在下方留言分享您的想法，并訂閱我們的節(jié)目，獲取更多關(guān)于新興世界秩序的深度分析。

THINK BRICS – Interview Script "Iran Crisis: Can BRICS Hold Together? | Wang Tao Exclusive"

Guest: Wang Tao (汪濤) – Chinese Analyst, Former ZTE VP, Author

Topic: "Iran, BRICS and the Multipolar Stress Test"

Duration: ~25-30 min

Language: English

? OPENING SEQUENCE (0:00-1:30)

HOST (Lorenzo):

"The war begins when the US and Israel decide — but how it ends depends on Iran."

These are the words of our guest today, Chinese analyst Wang Tao, written just days ago as the Middle East faced a new escalation.

Welcome to Think BRICS. I'm Lorenzo Maria Pacini.

Today, we ask: Is the BRICS alliance ready for its hardest test yet?

With us: Wang Tao — engineer, former VP of ZTE, author of seven books on technology, geopolitics, and scientific economics, and a regular voice on China's strategic outlook.

Mr. Wang, thank you for joining Think BRICS.

[GUEST ACKNOWLEDGMENT]

SEGMENT 1: IRAN & THE BRICS COHESION TEST (1:30-10:00)

HOST:

Let's start with your recent analysis on Guancha. You wrote that Iran's strategy must be a "prolonged war of resistance" — not to win militarily, but to mobilize global support.

Q1:

"The BRICS bloc includes countries with very different stakes in this crisis: Russia and China backing Tehran, but India — the 2026 BRICS chair — staying cautious to protect the Chabahar corridor. How can BRICS turn this moment of division into a catalyst for a truly common foreign policy, rather than letting national interests fragment the multipolar project?"

[FOLLOW-UP if needed]:

"What concrete mechanisms — diplomatic, financial, or security-related — could BRICS activate in the next 90 days to show unity?"

? SEGMENT 2: ENERGY SOVEREIGNTY & THE HORMUZ FACTOR (10:00-18:00)

HOST:

Iran's response included a temporary blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring. At the same time, BRICS is rolling out BRICS Pay in 2026 as an alternative to SWIFT.

Q2:

"How can BRICS members protect energy transactions from secondary US sanctions? And what is China's real capacity — and willingness — to guarantee secure energy corridors for the Global South in a scenario of prolonged regional instability?"

Q3 (Tech angle):

"You've worked on 5G infrastructure and written about 'sovereign networks'. Could a BRICS-wide digital payments and logistics layer — insulated from Western platforms — be the key to de-risking energy trade?"

SEGMENT 3: CHINA-INDIA: COMPETITION OR COOPERATION? (18:00-24:00)

HOST:

You've studied India deeply — you wrote Incredible India and led business operations there. Today, China and India are cautiously re-engaging diplomatically, yet strategic mistrust remains.

Q4:

"Beyond the border disputes, what are the real economic or technological barriers preventing deeper China-India cooperation within BRICS? And can the Iran crisis actually become a forcing function for them to align on energy security or de-dollarization?"

SEGMENT 4: A SCIENTIFIC METHOD FOR BRICS POLICY? (24:00-29:00)

HOST:

In your book Principles of Scientific Economics, you argue for policy-making based on measurement, experimentation, and interdisciplinary analysis — not ideology.

Q6:

"If BRICS wants to offer a genuine alternative to the Washington Consensus, what would a 'scientific' approach to development look like? Which indicators beyond GDP should guide our bloc's priorities — and how do we measure success?"

CLOSING QUESTION:

"Looking ahead 6 months: what are the 2-3 concrete signals we should watch to know whether BRICS is building a resilient multipolar architecture — or just reacting to crises?"

CLOSING (29:00-30:00)

HOST:

Mr. Wang Tao, thank you for these insights. Your perspective reminds us that multipolarity isn't just about adding new poles — it's about building systems that can withstand pressure.

To our viewers: What do you think? Can BRICS turn crisis into cohesion? Drop your thoughts below, and subscribe for more deep dives into the emerging world order.