Despite rising unilateralism and geopolitical tensions, China remains the largest engine of global economic growth, said Han Wenxiu, executive deputy director of the Office of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs.

Speaking at the China Economic Annual Conference in Beijing on Saturday, Han said the Chinese economy has, over the year, steadily forged ahead under pressure, achieving high-quality growth and fostering new growth points.

He revealed that major economic indicators have outperformed expectations, and the country's gross domestic product is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan ($19.3 trillion) in 2025.

This follows a steady trajectory, with the economy surpassing 110 trillion yuan in 2021, 120 trillion yuan in 2022 and 130 trillion yuan in 2024, respectively.

Discussing the roadmap for the coming year, Han emphasized that China will adhere to opening-up to promote multifield, win-win cooperation.

"Opening-up is a distinct feature of Chinese modernization," Han said. Looking ahead, Han signaled a policy direction of "institutional opening-up", pledging to expand market access in the service sector and further optimize the layout of free trade pilot zones.

A centerpiece of this institutional opening-up is the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is set to commence island-wide special Customs operations on Thursday.

Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, said such platforms are practical examples of how precisive policy boosts business.

Zhou highlighted a specific game-changer in Hainan FTP — a policy allowing goods with at least 30 percent value-added processing to enter the inland market duty-free. "This significantly cuts logistics and trade costs," Zhou said, noting that such measures encourage industrial clustering and streamline supply chains.

Reviewing the sector's performance, Han said that in 2025, China's foreign trade demonstrated "strong resilience" and "achieved growth against headwinds".

He explicitly identified the priorities for next year, "We will encourage service exports and actively develop digital trade and green trade."

Crucially, he stressed the need to "expand both exports and imports to promote the sustainable development of foreign trade".

To support this integration, China plans to polish the "Invest in China" brand by deepening reforms to facilitate foreign investment. For Chinese companies going global, Han said the country will "perfect its overseas comprehensive service system" to better protect their interests and mitigate risks.

Zhou argued against viewing imports and exports as a "binary choice". Instead, he described them as mutually reinforcing.

"Exports convert China's industrial power into global supply, while imports, including raw materials and intermediate goods, feed domestic manufacturing and consumer demand," Zhou explained. "Together, they contribute to a more resilient supply chain network that benefits both Chinese enterprises and multinational corporations."

The resilience Han spoke of is already visible in China's 2025 trade performance. Data from the General Administration of Customs show that China's trade surplus reached a record high of more than $1 trillion in the first 11 months.

While exports to the United States faced pressure, shipments to other regions expanded significantly. Exports to ASEAN, China's largest trade partner, rose 13.7 percent year-on-year, exports to the European Union increased 8.1 percent and shipments to the emerging African market surged 26.3 percent, reflecting continued progress in market diversification.

High-tech exports also gained momentum, led by a 25.6 percent rise in integrated circuits and a 17.6 percent increase in automobiles, underscoring China's continued movement up the global value chain.

Zhu Min, former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, offered a sobering assessment of the external environment, describing the global economic outlook for 2026 as one of "fragile growth".

"Global growth is expected to hover between 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent in the coming years, significantly lower than the 3.5 percent average seen before the 2008 financial crisis," Zhu warned.

Zhu identified a convergence of risks: the breakdown of existing trade structures due to US tariff policies, fiscal unsustainability in developed economies and less stability in the global banking system. He also noted that noneconomic factors, from geopolitical tensions to climate change, are increasingly disrupting markets.

However, Zhu emphasized that this reshaping of the global trade landscape also harbors opportunities for China.

"As global capital reallocates across supply chains, China's status as the global manufacturing hub is actually rising, forging tighter links with key partners," Zhu said.

International institutions remain optimistic about China's trade outlook. Morgan Stanley has projected that China's share of global goods exports could continue to rise, underpinned by its manufacturing depth and ability to respond to global demand.

Source: China Daily