注：本文原發(fā)于跨資產(chǎn)星球北京時(shí)間4月12日的內(nèi)容，截止今天，全球市場(chǎng)股市均接近與創(chuàng)出新高。部分內(nèi)容已刪減，完整版可在文末獲取。

X@Ariston Wang: https://x.com/ariston_macro?s=21

一、我對(duì)伊朗的看法，為什么交易注定達(dá)成，雖然結(jié)果同樣注定無(wú)法回到開戰(zhàn)前 / My view on Iran: why a deal is destined to be reached, even though the outcome is equally destined not to return to the pre-war state

在美以談判結(jié)果出來(lái)之前，星球連發(fā)了三條帖子，內(nèi)容如下，這部分是我對(duì)伊朗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以來(lái)各類事件與新聞結(jié)果的看法框架，回答了為什么只要政權(quán)顛覆這條路徑不存在，交易就一定會(huì)最終達(dá)成的這一問(wèn)題。事實(shí)上，在外事機(jī)構(gòu)的培訓(xùn)里，所謂談判，所有官員會(huì)和你說(shuō)到的第一個(gè)要求就是，談判的一切，均在與結(jié)果的產(chǎn)出。

Before the result of the U.S.-Israel negotiations came out, I posted three consecutive messages in the Planet. The content is reproduced below. This section lays out my framework for thinking about the various events and news developments since the Iran war, and it answers why, so long as regime overthrow is not on the table, a deal must eventually be reached. In diplomatic training, the very first requirement officials will tell you about negotiation is that everything in a negotiation is ultimately about producing an outcome.

可以不談判，但談判進(jìn)程一旦開啟，無(wú)論如何都是一個(gè)必須要有結(jié)果的事情，在流血地緣事件中尤其。換句話說(shuō)，在一切開始之初，結(jié)果的產(chǎn)出就已經(jīng)是必然的，區(qū)別只在于談判利益劃分如何，但無(wú)論怎樣，談判一旦開啟，最糟糕的惡性情景就已經(jīng)不再可能長(zhǎng)期持續(xù)：

You may choose not to negotiate, but once a negotiation process begins, it becomes something that must produce a result one way or another, especially in a bloody geopolitical event. In other words, from the very beginning, the production of an outcome is already inevitable. The only difference lies in how the benefits are divided in the negotiation. But whatever the split, once negotiation begins, the worst malignant scenario is no longer able to persist for long:

伊朗不是其人民所屬的伊朗，而是其統(tǒng)治的宗教領(lǐng)袖集團(tuán)所屬的伊朗。因此，分析不能從公眾的視角來(lái)框架。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層專注于兩件事：維護(hù)公眾觀感，以及保護(hù)其自身的根本利益。

Iran does not belong to its people; it belongs to the clerical leadership group that rules it. Therefore, analysis cannot be framed from the public's perspective. The leadership is focused on two things: maintaining public optics and protecting its own core interests.

這就是為什么伊朗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)不同于越南戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。其核心歸結(jié)為一點(diǎn)：美國(guó)實(shí)際上已經(jīng)放棄了政權(quán)更迭。剩下的就是與繼任者達(dá)成一套新的利益安排，以一種既保全面子又尊重宗教情感的方式。只需看看那十項(xiàng)要求的時(shí)機(jī)，就可以清楚地看出這一點(diǎn)。它們正是在阿里·哈梅內(nèi)伊的宗教哀悼期結(jié)束時(shí)提出的，一天也不晚。歸根結(jié)底，這一切都關(guān)乎金錢。統(tǒng)治集團(tuán)只是在為新秩序中爭(zhēng)取更大份額。別想多了。

This is why the Iran war is different from the Vietnam War. The core point comes down to one thing: the United States has in practice already given up on regime change. What remains is to reach a new arrangement of interests with the successor structure in a way that preserves face and respects religious sensitivities. Just look at the timing of those ten demands and the point becomes obvious. They were put forward exactly when Ali Khamenei's period of religious mourning ended, not a day later. In the end, all of this is about money. The ruling group is simply bargaining for a larger share in the new order. Do not overthink it

提出要約、還價(jià)，并達(dá)成交易。交易就是交易。那些認(rèn)為系統(tǒng)過(guò)于復(fù)雜的人，其實(shí)并不真正理解權(quán)力的運(yùn)作方式。只要有一個(gè)明確定義的統(tǒng)治集團(tuán)，就能夠達(dá)成交易。從歷史上看，長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)往往出現(xiàn)在地理國(guó)家內(nèi)部不存在單一、連貫的統(tǒng)治權(quán)威的地方。

Make an offer, bargain, and get a deal done. A deal is a deal. People who think the system is too complicated do not actually understand how power works. As long as there is a clearly defined ruling group, a deal can be made. Historically, prolonged wars often emerge in places where there is no single, coherent ruling authority within the geographic state.

二、市場(chǎng)的定價(jià)：匯市 / Market Pricing: FX

截至周線收盤，市場(chǎng)基本保留了?；痱?qū)動(dòng)的漲幅：

As of the weekly close, the market had largely retained the ceasefire-driven gains:

圖：?；痱?qū)動(dòng)的定價(jià)截至收盤被加以保留

鑒于我們的根本判定框架（見上文），市場(chǎng)在未來(lái)三到六周對(duì)霍爾木茲局勢(shì)邊際緩和和滯脹定價(jià)的回吐是期望最高的可能路徑，但由于美伊在核問(wèn)題上仍未達(dá)成一致，尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并未消失，所以，兩個(gè)自然而然的判斷是：1）組合層面不再適合維持大規(guī)模防御，2）應(yīng)轉(zhuǎn)向縮小倉(cāng)位但偏多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方向的交易框架。

Given our core judgment framework above, the most likely path over the next three to six weeks is for the market to price in marginal easing around the Strait of Hormuz while partially unwinding stagflation pricing. But because the U.S. and Iran still have not reached agreement on the nuclear issue, tail risks have not disappeared. That leads naturally to two judgments: 1) at the portfolio level it no longer makes sense to maintain large-scale defensiveness, and 2) the framework should shift toward smaller position sizes but with a risk-on bias.

圖：美元指數(shù)（四小時(shí)圖，截至 260412）

在這種情況下，廣義美元多頭的性價(jià)比開始下降，在我們強(qiáng)調(diào)被動(dòng)或主動(dòng)的了結(jié)此前匯市做多的大部分倉(cāng)位后，美元已經(jīng)一路下行至今，不僅跳空跌破了自3月初以來(lái)的上行紅線，更是重返了98.8的震蕩區(qū)間上沿，這里開始，紅線將成為強(qiáng)勁阻力線，我們對(duì)美元的觀點(diǎn)由強(qiáng)多頭轉(zhuǎn)為無(wú)趨勢(shì)震蕩。

In that environment, the risk-reward of broad dollar longs is starting to deteriorate. After we emphasized either passive or active profit-taking on most of our prior FX longs, the dollar has kept falling all the way to now. It not only gapped below the upward-sloping red line that had held since early March, but also returned to the upper bound of the 98.8 trading range. From here, that red line becomes strong resistance. Our dollar view therefore shifts from strong bullishness to trendless range trading.

如果美國(guó)股市相對(duì)全球其他市場(chǎng)走弱，可能會(huì)重燃此前長(zhǎng)期資金重新思考美元資產(chǎn)配置權(quán)重的行動(dòng)，提高 FX hedge ratio，甚至帶來(lái)資金回流本幣市場(chǎng)...

If U.S. equities weaken relative to other global markets, that could revive the longer-term rethinking by institutional capital over the weighting of dollar assets, raising FX hedge ratios and even bringing capital back into local-currency markets...

圖：事實(shí)是 US equities 的確 haven’t performed as well versus Rest of World as one might expect during a cyclical macro shock

續(xù)接上文，?；鹬螅瑓R率表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)不再像3月那樣主要由相對(duì)貿(mào)易條件驅(qū)動(dòng)，而更多受到 risk premium compression影響，最典型的證據(jù)是 NOK，其在油價(jià)回落的當(dāng)周仍然是最強(qiáng) G10 之一，說(shuō)明資金并不是機(jī)械按油價(jià)和貿(mào)易條件交易，而是主動(dòng)壓縮地緣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)：

Continuing from above, after the ceasefire, FX performance is no longer driven mainly by relative terms of trade as it was in March, but more by risk-premium compression. The clearest evidence is NOK: even in the same week that oil prices fell, it still ranked among the strongest G10 currencies. That shows capital is not trading mechanically off oil prices and terms of trade, but is actively compressing geopolitical risk premia:

圖：NOK（日線圖，截至 260412）

如果交易框架繼續(xù)從“避險(xiǎn)對(duì)沖”切到“交易局勢(shì)緩和下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)修復(fù)”，那么EUR/AUD的交易對(duì)會(huì)成為資金的主要代理對(duì)象，邏輯是，在局勢(shì)邊際緩和下，AUD 能更直接承接廣義高beta 反彈，而 EUR 彈性不足，所以 short EUR/AUD 比繼續(xù)拿 AUD vs SEK/GBP 會(huì)更純粹：

If the trading framework keeps shifting from "safe-haven hedge" to "risk repair under easing tensions," then EUR/AUD will become a key proxy for capital. The logic is that under marginal easing, AUD can absorb the broader high-beta rebound more directly, while EUR lacks that kind of elasticity. So short EUR/AUD is a purer expression than continuing to hold AUD versus SEK or GBP:

圖：EURAUD（日線圖，截至 260412）

最后，突破黃線，我們對(duì)SEK的做多已經(jīng)開始：

Finally, after breaking above the yellow line, our long SEK position has now begun:

圖：SEK 疊加 CL（日線圖，截至 260412）

邏輯詳見此前Notes，這是一個(gè)我們已經(jīng)盯了一個(gè)多月的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)退散的交易對(duì)象。

The logic is explained in earlier Notes. This is a risk-release trade we have been watching for more than a month.

三、市場(chǎng)的定價(jià)：股市（人民幣進(jìn)入#3與中國(guó)股指）/Market Pricing: Equities （RMB entersand China indices）

人民幣美元同步跳入#3階段，這一階段的定位是雙向波動(dòng)但緩慢升值，在保住匯率穩(wěn)定和出口增長(zhǎng)的前提下為本幣資產(chǎn)繼續(xù)做多頭基礎(chǔ)，這意味著只要人民幣兌美元其仍然運(yùn)行在兩條藍(lán)線夾住的#3區(qū)域，整個(gè)內(nèi)地市場(chǎng)股指就不會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅下挫，只可能走1）穩(wěn)定上行，2）區(qū)間震蕩兩種路徑：

RMB and the dollar have both moved into phase #3. This phase is defined as two-way fluctuation but gradual appreciation, preserving exchange-rate stability and export growth while continuing to provide a bullish foundation for domestic-currency assets. That means as long as RMB/USD remains inside the #3 zone bounded by the two blue lines, mainland equity indices are unlikely to suffer a sharp drop. The likely paths are only: 1) stable upward movement, or 2) range-bound trading:

圖：人民幣兌美元（日線圖，截至 260412）進(jìn)入#2 后的#3 升值區(qū)域

滬指，在 200 日年線上方獲得支撐，后續(xù)預(yù)期是在3800-4200的金線區(qū)間內(nèi)沿年線震蕩式上行，其將仍然由科技+資源兩條主要硬資產(chǎn)線路（定義詳見此前Notes）引領(lǐng)：

The Shanghai Composite has found support above the 200-day moving average. The expectation going forward is a grind higher along the moving average within the 3800-4200 gold-lined range, still led by the two main hard-asset lines of technology plus resources, as previously defined in the Notes...

深指，同樣，但可能會(huì)率先突破上沿金線...

The Shenzhen index is similar, but it may break above the upper gold line first...

完整內(nèi)容訂閱鏈接：https://t.zsxq.com/i90xY

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