IPP評論是國家高端智庫華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平臺。

導語：

“殘酷的現(xiàn)實是，我們未能確保全球升溫幅度控制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)?！甭?lián)合國秘書長古特雷斯6日在貝倫氣候峰會上如此警告。

世界氣象組織發(fā)布的最新報告顯示，極端高溫特征在2025年仍將持續(xù)，這一年或?qū)⒊蔀橛杏涗浺詠淼诙虻谌裏岬哪攴?。全球多地頻繁遭遇強臺風與極端高溫。然而，與不斷加劇的氣候危機形成鮮明對比的是，全球氣候合作卻呈現(xiàn)疲軟態(tài)勢。美國等大國缺乏參與意愿，各國在責任分配、資金支持以及能源轉(zhuǎn)型等問題上也難以達成協(xié)調(diào)。

在此背景下，11月10日，《聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約》第三十次締約方大會（COP30）在巴西貝倫召開。美國總統(tǒng)特朗普史無前例地并未派遣官方高級別代表團出席。盡管形勢嚴峻，本屆大會仍肩負重要使命——新一輪國家自主貢獻（NDCs）。國家自主貢獻是《巴黎協(xié)定》的核心機制，而2025年恰逢協(xié)定達成十周年，是各國“交卷”的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點。COP30需要進一步把“守住1.5攝氏度紅線”的目標具體化，轉(zhuǎn)化為切實可行的氣候治理與協(xié)作措施。

在IPP榮譽教授、聯(lián)合國教科文組織國際創(chuàng)意和可持續(xù)發(fā)展中心顧問理事梅里·馬達沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）看來，本屆COP30 的關(guān)鍵不在于程序性文件，而在于它所揭示的氣候治理格局變化：美國等傳統(tǒng)主導力量的退場，使全球氣候機制出現(xiàn)前所未有的政治空缺；相反，全球南方的集體崛起正推動氣候議程從過去的自上而下談判，轉(zhuǎn)向由新興經(jīng)濟體和跨國城市網(wǎng)絡(luò)等共同塑造的多中心架構(gòu)。

她認為，這種力量重組，將深刻影響未來氣候規(guī)則的制定方式，也將決定氣候治理能否在長期分歧中找到新的支點。

*本文作者：梅里·馬達沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）榮譽教授、聯(lián)合國教科文組織國際創(chuàng)意和可持續(xù)發(fā)展中心（ICCSD）顧問理事

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ;

member of Advisory Board of UNESCO International Centre for Creative Economy and Sustainable Development（ICCSD）

正文

COP30：全球氣候治理的轉(zhuǎn)折點

COP 30 as a Turning Point in Global Climate Governance

引言

Introduction

近幾個月來，氣候變化帶來的現(xiàn)實風險已經(jīng)愈發(fā)凸顯——2025年全球最強熱帶氣旋在11月短短幾天內(nèi)兩度襲擊菲律賓。臺風“卡爾馬吉”（菲律賓當?shù)胤Q“蒂諾”）橫掃菲律賓中部，引發(fā)山洪和泥石流，菲律賓島嶼省份宿務遭受的沖擊尤為嚴重，整個居民社區(qū)被沖垮，造成慘重的人員傷亡。隨后，這場臺風還繼續(xù)向越南方向移動。

The physical risks of a changing climate were underlined in recent months when the world’s most powerful tropical cyclone of 2025 hit the Philippines twice in a few days in November 2025. Typhoon Kalmaegi made a landfall across central Philippines causing flash floodings and landslides particularly in the province of Cebu, where the entire communities were washed away with a heavy death toll. It then moved towards Vietnam.

就在“卡爾馬吉”過后沒幾天，臺風“鳳凰”又以185公里/小時的持續(xù)風速、最高達230公里/小時的陣風襲擊菲律賓，導致140萬人流離失所或緊急撤離。數(shù)日之內(nèi)連遭兩場重大風暴的情形，也讓當?shù)爻鞘信c區(qū)域韌性面臨巨大壓力。

Just days after Kalmaegi, Fung-Wong hit the Philippines with sustained winds of 185 km/h and gust up to 230 km/h, displacing 1.4 million people. This show of back-to-back major storms within days reveals the acute stress on urban and regional resilience systems.

而在不久之前，臺風“樺加沙”登陸中國南部。格蘭瑟姆研究所（Grantham Institute）開展的一項快速歸因研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，氣候變化使臺風“樺加沙”發(fā)生的可能性提高了約49%。中國南部大約36%的損失可歸因于人為變暖。變暖還讓“樺加沙”的風速增強約7%，降雨量增加約12%。

Shortly before, Typhoon Ragasa stroke Southern China. A rapid-attribution study by the Grantham Institute found that climate change made Ragasa about 49% more likely, with roughly 36% of the damage in southern China attributed to anthropogenic warming. Its winds were boosted by approximately 7% and rainfall by 12% due to warming.

今年七月，巴基斯坦的季風洪災造成逾300人死亡，超過4,000個村莊被淹沒，并破壞了沿印度河的大量基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，包括主要道路和橋梁。

In July this year, the Pakistan Monsoon Floods, killed more than 300 people, submerged over 4,000 villages, and damaged extensive infrastructure including major roads and bridges along the Indus River.

根據(jù)2025年5月有多個機構(gòu)聯(lián)合發(fā)布的《氣候變化與全球極端高溫升級報告》（Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat）顯示，在研究開展期間，全球約40億人、占世界人口49%的人群，至少經(jīng)歷了30天的極端高溫。在195個國家和地區(qū)，氣候變化使極端高溫天數(shù)至少增加了一倍。這種普遍的高溫壓力對城市健康、建筑設(shè)計、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施韌性以及綠地規(guī)劃都帶來了深遠影響。

According to the Report on Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat (May 2025), four billion people, 49 percent of the global population, experienced at least 30 days of extreme heat during the study period. In 195 countries and territories, climate change has at least doubled the number of extreme-heat days. This pervasive heat stress carries major implications for urban health, building design, infrastructure resilience, and the planning of green spaces.

這研究還引用了“2024–2025年野火狀況”數(shù)據(jù)報告（發(fā)表于期刊Earth System Science Data）指出，2024年1至3月期間，亞馬孫東北部出現(xiàn)的極端火災天氣條件，由于人為原因，發(fā)生可能性提高了30至70倍；剛果盆地也出現(xiàn)了類似的模式。這些熱帶森林火災事件對生物多樣性、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務及碳儲存造成嚴重破壞，并造成空氣質(zhì)量惡化、人口遷移以及流域系統(tǒng)中斷等，對周邊城市地區(qū)產(chǎn)生了影響。

The same study, referring to State of Wildfires 2024–2025 (Copernicus ESSD), notes that in northeast Amazonia, extreme fire-weather conditions during January to March 2024 were 30 to 70 times more likely due to anthropogenic climate forcing, a pattern also observed in the Congo Basin. These tropical forest fire events severely affected biodiversity, ecosystem services, and carbon storage, and they also influenced nearby urban regions through degraded air quality, population displacement, and disruptions to watershed systems.

同樣令人警警惕的是2024年秋季西班牙瓦倫西亞地區(qū)出現(xiàn)的極端降雨——單日降水量相當于當?shù)匾徽甑钠骄邓?。隨之而來的山洪暴發(fā)導致大量房屋被毀，并造成嚴重的人員傷亡。

Equally alarming was the extreme rainfall in Spain’s Valencia region during autumn 2024, where a single day’s precipitation equaled the annual average. The resulting flash floods caused widespread destruction of homes and significant loss of life.

近幾個月接連發(fā)生的極端天氣事件引發(fā)全球關(guān)注，并帶來了一個非常緊迫的問題：氣候變化的影響正在以何等速度加劇？正如聯(lián)合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）所警告的那樣：

This dramatic series of extreme weather events in recent months has captured global attention and raised pressing questions about the accelerating impacts of climate change. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns,

“這些變化中有許多是前所未有的，其中一些趨勢已經(jīng)不可逆轉(zhuǎn)；而另一些變化——例如持續(xù)的海平面上升——在未來數(shù)百年至數(shù)千年內(nèi)都將‘不可逆’。” “Many of these changes are unprecedented, and some of the shifts are already in motion, while others, such as continued sea-level rise, are ‘irreversible’ for centuries to millennia.”

該機構(gòu)進一步指出，除非在短期內(nèi)實現(xiàn)對二氧化碳及其他溫室氣體的“快速且深度的減排”，否則《巴黎協(xié)定》的目標將難以實現(xiàn)。

The Panel further cautions that unless “rapid and deep reductions in CO? and other greenhouse-gas emissions” occur soon, the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement will slip beyond reach.

然而，隨著全球持續(xù)升溫、災難性事件愈發(fā)頻繁，一些曾在強大政治支持下大力推動氣候行動的政府，如今似乎正逐漸與當下的挑戰(zhàn)脫節(jié)。

Yet as the world grows hotter and catastrophic events increase, governments that once championed climate action with strong political backing appear increasingly disengaged from today’s challenges.

聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約 — 第30次締約方大會（COP30）

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - COP 30

11月12日，世界領(lǐng)導人齊聚巴西帕拉州首府貝倫，出席《聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約》第30次締約方大會（COP30）。此次會議再次將自然保護融入COP的議程之中。

On 12 November 2025, world leaders gathered in Belém, the capital of Brazil’s Pará state, for the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP 30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reaffirming that nature conservation is now firmly embedded in the COP agenda.

然而，一個重大的地緣政治變化已然顯現(xiàn)。中國、俄羅斯、澳大利亞、印度尼西亞、土耳其和日本的領(lǐng)導人均未出席。最引人注目的是，美國在過去三十年里一直以最高級別參與氣候進程，這一次卻未派出任何高級官員。自全球氣候機制啟動以來，這還是首次——世界上歷史累計排放量最大的國家事實上缺席了談判桌。

A major geopolitical shift, however, was evident. Leaders from China, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Japan were absent. Most strikingly, the United States, participating at the highest levels for three decades, sent no senior officials. For the first time since the global climate process began, the world’s largest historical emitter was effectively missing from the table.

特朗普政府退出了國內(nèi)外多個旨在減少化石燃料使用的重要承諾。美國不僅阻止國際社會設(shè)定石油基塑料生產(chǎn)上限，還阻撓通過全球首個航運排放稅，削弱了全球氣候治理的努力。這一大幅的政策轉(zhuǎn)向與私營部門在氣候領(lǐng)域取得的顯著進展形成鮮明對比；而私營部門如今正面臨來自政治不確定性、財政壓力以及地緣政治碎片化的日益嚴峻的阻力。

Under the Trump presidency, the United States has withdrawn from key commitments to curb fossil-fuel use, both domestically and internationally. It has undermined global efforts by blocking an international limit on petroleum-based plastics production and preventing adoption of the world’s first tax on shipping emissions. This policy U-turn stands in stark contrast to the remarkable climate advances of the private sector, which now confront growing headwinds from political uncertainty, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical fragmentation.

盡管面臨這些障礙，氣候經(jīng)濟仍在持續(xù)擴張。自2015年以來，涵蓋太陽能光伏、風力渦輪機、電動汽車和電池等領(lǐng)域的全球綠色技術(shù)市場規(guī)模增長了近四倍，年規(guī)模已超過7,000億美元，展現(xiàn)出商業(yè)可行性。

Despite these obstacles, the climate economy continues to expand. Since 2015, the global market for green technologies, including solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries, has nearly quadrupled, surpassing $700 billion annually and demonstrating the sector’s commercial viability.

世界經(jīng)濟論壇“CEO氣候領(lǐng)袖聯(lián)盟”（Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders）的成員企業(yè)，年收入合計超過4萬億美元，它們在2019至2023年間整體減排12%，同時收入增長20%。然而，如果缺乏一致且連貫的政府政策，這些進展仍然脆弱且易受沖擊。

Members of the World Economic Forum’s Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, representing more than $4 trillion in revenues, collectively reduced emissions by 12 percent while increasing revenues by 20 percent between 2019 and 2023. Yet this progress remains vulnerable without coherent government policy.

巴西成為COP30東道國，有何重要意義

The Significance of Brazil as Host

在亞馬孫雨林的門戶貝倫舉辦COP30——這一地區(qū)擁有全球最大熱帶雨林約60%的面積——巴西傳遞了一個清晰的信息：自然不是氣候穩(wěn)定的邊緣議題。

By hosting COP 30 in Belém, gateway to the Amazon rainforest, which contains roughly 60 percent of the world’s largest tropical forest, Brazil sends an unmistakable message: nature is central, not peripheral, to climate stability.

這是首次在亞馬孫流域召開締約方大會。該地區(qū)既是地球最大的碳匯之一（碳匯就是能將空氣里的CO?固定下來的地方），也是最脆弱的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)之一，其象征意義極為深遠。亞馬孫既是生物多樣性的庇護所，也是全球生態(tài)健康的晴雨表。在此舉辦COP30，強調(diào)了環(huán)境保護、人類安全與氣候治理之間深度交織、相互依存的關(guān)系。

This is the first COP ever convened in the Amazon Basin, a region that represents both one of the planet's greatest carbon sinks and one of its most fragile ecosystems. The symbolism is profound. The Amazon functions simultaneously as a sanctuary of biodiversity and a barometer of global ecological health. Holding COP 30 here underscores the deep interdependence between environmental conservation, human security, and climate governance.

亞馬孫的會議地點也表明，所謂“韌性”，不僅屬于森林，也關(guān)乎可持續(xù)、具備氣候適應力的城市設(shè)計。正如聯(lián)合國所強調(diào)的那樣，COP30是檢驗《巴黎協(xié)定》機制能否轉(zhuǎn)化為實際成果的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點。正如聯(lián)合國秘書長古特雷斯所表示的那樣：“COP30必須開啟一個加速落實的十年?！?/p>

The Amazonian setting offers a powerful metaphor for resilience one that extends beyond forests to the design of sustainable, climate-adaptive cities. As the United Nations emphasizes, COP 30 represents a critical juncture for assessing whether the mechanisms of the Paris Agreement are delivering tangible results. “COP 30 must ignite a decade of acceleration and delivery.” The stakes are indeed formidable.

巴西自身的城市實踐——從圣保羅的防洪管理改革，到庫里提巴的可持續(xù)交通項目——展示了國家層面的承諾如何在市級推動創(chuàng)新行動。將全球氣候談判置于世界最大熱帶雨林的腹地，COP30強調(diào)了生態(tài)韌性與城市韌性之間不可分割的連續(xù)性，而這種連續(xù)性正是實現(xiàn)公平且可持續(xù)的全球轉(zhuǎn)型所不可或缺的基礎(chǔ)。

Brazil’s own urban experiments, from flood-management reforms in S?o Paulo to sustainable mobility initiatives in Curitiba, illustrate how national commitments can drive innovative action at the municipal level. By situating global climate negotiations in the heart of the world’s largest tropical forest, COP 30 reinforces the essential continuity between ecological and urban resilience, a continuity fundamental to achieving a just and sustainable global transition.

盡管《巴黎協(xié)定》曾帶來強勁動力，但全球排放量迄今仍沿著一條可能突破1.5°C閾值的軌跡上升。《2023年全球盤點》（全球減緩氣候變化進展的評估報告，每次評估期為兩年）顯示，即使各國提交的國家自主貢獻（NDCs）得到全面落實，本世紀末全球升溫仍將達到約2.5–2.9°C。因此，貝倫大會不僅是提升氣候目標雄心的關(guān)鍵契機，更是通過實施、融資與問責機制，將既有承諾落到實處的關(guān)鍵時刻。

Despite the momentum generated by the Paris Agreement (2015), global emissions remain on a trajectory that risks surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold. The 2023 Global Stock revealed that the commitments submitted by Parties, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), would, if fully implemented, still result in an estimated 2.5–2.9 °C of warming by the end of the century. The conference in Belém therefore represents a pivotal opportunity not only to strengthen ambition but also to operationalize existing commitments through implementation, finance, and accountability mechanisms.

國家自主貢獻

Nationally Determined Contributions

到2025年，各國必須提交第三代國家自主貢獻（“NDCs 3.0”），作為迄今最具雄心的氣候承諾。

By 2025, countries were required to submit their third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions “ NDCs 3.0’ representing their most ambitious climate pledges yet.

截至2024–2025年，已經(jīng)提交新版國家自主貢獻的國家。數(shù)據(jù)來源：世界資源研究所（WRI）旗下 Climate Watch 平臺的 NDC Tracker

這些覆蓋 2025—2035年的更新版國家自主貢獻（NDCs），必須體現(xiàn)出與全球升溫1.5°C目標相一致的顯著進展。然而，推進速度一直十分緩慢。根據(jù)Climate Watch的NDC追蹤器，截至中國在11月3日提交新版 NDC時，只有69個主要經(jīng)濟體——占全球溫室氣體排放量的61%——提交了相關(guān)計劃。

These updated NDCs, covering the 2025-2035 period, must have demonstrated significant progression aligning with the 1.5°C temperature goal. But progress has been sluggish. According to the Climate Watch NDC Tracker,with China submitting on 3 November, only 69 major economies, representing 61% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), have submitted these plans.

這相當于僅減少10%的排放量。要滿足《巴黎協(xié)定》的要求、將升溫控制在1.5°C以內(nèi)，全球需要實現(xiàn)60%的減排。盡管如此，各國的回應依然遲緩——而這與全球綠色技術(shù)市場的迅速擴張形成鮮明對比。包括太陽能光伏、風力渦輪機、電動汽車和電池等在內(nèi)的綠色技術(shù)市場自2015年以來規(guī)模增長了近四倍，年產(chǎn)值超過7,000億美元，充分證明了氣候經(jīng)濟的商業(yè)可行性。

This amount to a reduction of emissions of 10%. We would need 60% of the global community to stay within 1.5°C to meet the requirement of the Paris agreement. This sluggish response is even though the global market for green technologies, including solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries (as mentioned above), has nearly quadrupled since 2015 to exceed $700 billion annually, a testament to the commercial viability of the climate economy.

COP30的期望與挑戰(zhàn)

Expectations and Challenges for COP 30

在柏林舉行首屆締約方大會后的三十年間，全球氣候治理體系已從一個以外交談判為主的論壇，演變?yōu)橐粋€由多元主體參與的復雜治理體系。COP30正是這一轉(zhuǎn)型的集中體現(xiàn)。在《巴黎協(xié)定》簽署后的十年里，美國迅速成為全球最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國和出口國。

Three decades after the first COP in Berlin, the climate regime has evolved from a diplomatic negotiation forum into a complex system of multi-actor governance. COP 30 crystallizes this transformation. Over the decade since the Paris Agreement was signed, the United States rapidly become the world’s leading producer and exporter of gas.

特朗普政府不僅放棄了美國向世界作出的控制溫室氣體排放承諾，而且作為“反對派領(lǐng)袖”，施壓其他國家放緩應對氣候變化的努力。

The Trump administration not only abandoned America’s promises to the rest of the world that it would control the greenhouse gas, but as the opposition leader, is pressuring other countries to similarly back away from efforts to fight climate change.

各國 LNG（液化天然氣）出口量。數(shù)據(jù)來源：S&P Global

與此同時，中國正加倍努力，致力于成為全球領(lǐng)先的“電力國家”（electrostate）以及綠色技術(shù)供應國，并在氣候領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮引領(lǐng)作用。

Meanwhile, China is doubling down on its effort to become the world’s preeminent "electrostate" and supplier of green and a climate leader.

去年，中國新增的風力渦輪機和太陽能電池板裝機量超過全球其他國家的總和。如今，中國在清潔能源產(chǎn)業(yè)中占據(jù)主導地位，從專利技術(shù)到關(guān)鍵原材料均具有顯著優(yōu)勢，并正大量向全球輸出相關(guān)產(chǎn)品。中國企業(yè)正在巴西、泰國、摩洛哥和匈牙利建設(shè)電動汽車及電池工廠。

China installed more wind turbines and solar panels last year than the rest of the world combined. It now dominates clean energy industries, from patented technologies to essential raw materials, and is selling a lot of it to the world. Chinese companies are building electric vehicle and battery factories in Brazil, Thailand, Morocco and Hungary.

長期被邊緣化的全球南方國家，正通過更加積極的參與，開始在氣候議程中將自身定位為“共同制定者”。本次大會也揭示了氣候治理體系正在形成的新結(jié)構(gòu)：權(quán)力與行動倡議不再僅由傳統(tǒng)的西方國家所主導，而是越來越多地由新興經(jīng)濟體、次國家政府以及跨國城市網(wǎng)絡(luò)共同分擔與推動。

The Global South, long peripheral in decision-making by their active presence, assert themselves as a co-author of the climate agenda. The conference also reveals an evolving architecture of climate governance. Power and initiative are no longer concentrated solely in traditional Western actors but increasingly shared among emerging economies, subnational governments, and transnational city networks.

巴西的領(lǐng)導作用正體現(xiàn)出這一轉(zhuǎn)變，將全球南方從以往氣候政策的被動接受者，轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楣餐茉煳磥硪?guī)則的參與者。在COP進程中，城市、地區(qū)和原住民聯(lián)盟的重要性不斷提升，也展示了氣候治理權(quán)力的分散化趨勢——全球環(huán)境治理正向一種更加多中心的結(jié)構(gòu)邁進。巴西的領(lǐng)導正是這一變化的縮影，努力在發(fā)展需求與生態(tài)責任之間尋求平衡。

Brazil’s leadership reflects this shift, positioning the Global South not as a passive recipient of climate policy but as a co-author of its future. The growing prominence of cities, regions, and Indigenous coalitions within the COP process also illustrates a decentralization of agency a move toward a more polycentric form of global environmental governance. Brazil’s leadership embodies this shift, seeking to reconcile developmental imperatives with ecological stewardship.

將COP30置于亞馬孫雨林的象征遠不止森林保護本身：它也促使人們思考如何將生態(tài)平衡、適應能力和氣候正義的原則應用于城市環(huán)境。城市承載著全球一半以上的人口，并產(chǎn)生超過70%的溫室氣體排放，因而正日益被視為氣候行動的前線。貝倫的討論因此對城市政策、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施規(guī)劃以及氣候治理具有深遠意義。

The symbolic power of convening COP 30 in the Amazon extends beyond forest preservation: it also invites reflection on how the principles of ecological balance, adaptation, and justice can be applied to urban environments. Cities, home to more than half of humanity and responsible for over 70 percent of greenhouse-gas emissions are increasingly recognized as critical frontlines of climate action. The discussions in Belém thus have profound implications for urban policy, infrastructure planning, and climate governance.

COP30被廣泛視為對《巴黎協(xié)定》公信力以及全球政治意愿的一次關(guān)鍵檢驗。它不僅關(guān)乎技術(shù)層面的談判，更是一場關(guān)于“信任”的較量——發(fā)生在南北之間、國家與公民之間、人類發(fā)展與生態(tài)邊界之間。各方的核心期待主要集中在三個領(lǐng)域。

COP 30 is widely regarded as a test of the Paris Agreement’s credibility and of the world’s collective political will. Beyond technical negotiations, it embodies a contest of trust — between North and South, state and citizen, human development and ecological limits. Central expectations revolve around three domains.

首先，是目標雄心的差距。各方需在 2026 年前提交與 1.5°C 路徑相一致的更新版國家自主貢獻（NDCs）。COP30的成敗，將取決于包括主要新興經(jīng)濟體在內(nèi)的大型經(jīng)濟體，能否在逐步淘汰化石燃料、擴大可再生能源體系方面展現(xiàn)出可衡量的實際進展。

First, the ambition gap. Parties are expected to submit updated NDCs aligned with the 1.5 °C pathway before 2026. The success of COP 30 will depend on whether major economies, including emerging ones, demonstrate measurable progress in phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up renewable systems.

其次，是氣候融資。作為東道主，巴西希望推動承諾超越長期以來每年 1000億美元的融資目標，并建立機制，使發(fā)展中國家和次國家層級能夠直接獲得資金。這一點對適應性措施尤為關(guān)鍵，因為在過去的氣候融資結(jié)構(gòu)中，適應一直相對于減緩行動嚴重資金不足。

Second, climate finance. Brazil, as host, seeks to expand commitments beyond the long-standing USD 100 billion annual pledge and to establish instruments that grant developing nations and subnational entities direct access to funds. This is especially crucial for adaptation, a dimension historically underfinanced relative to mitigation.

《巴黎協(xié)定》的核心原則之一，是承認各國承擔的責任不同。富裕的工業(yè)化國家理應支持較貧窮國家向可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型，并幫助其應對氣候變暖帶來的影響。

One of the key tenets of the Paris Agreement was an acknowledgement that countries had different responsibilities. Wealthy industrialized countries were supposed to support poorer countries on transition to renewable energy and adapt to the problems brought on by a hotter climate.

去年，各國達成共識，到2035年，每年需要籌集總計1.3萬億美元，以幫助發(fā)展中國家應對氣候損害，其中包括富裕國家每年提供3000億美元的公共資金。這一規(guī)模遠遠超過了迄今富裕國家實際提供的水平，而這些資金將從何而來至今仍不確定。

Last year, countries agreed that a total of $1.3 trillion would be needed every year by 2035 to help developing countries manage climate harms, including $300 billion a year in public monies from rich countries. That’s far more than what rich countries have so far made available. Where that money will come from is still uncertain. Expectation concerning climate finance long recognized as the cornerstone of implementation.

巴西已明確表示，“即便缺乏美國在政治和技術(shù)上的領(lǐng)導力，世界也必須繼續(xù)前行?！蓖瑫r，它強調(diào)將推動各方承諾超越長期以來每年1000億美元的融資目標，并建立機制，使發(fā)展中國家和地方政府能夠更便捷地直接獲得氣候資金。

Brazil has signaled that, “The world must be moving on, even without U.S. political and technological leadership, ” and emphasis its intentions to push for expanded commitments beyond the long-standing USD 100 billion annual pledge and to establish mechanisms that facilitate direct access to finance for developing nations and local governments.

減緩與適應之間的融資緊張關(guān)系依舊突出：盡管大規(guī)?？稍偕茉崔D(zhuǎn)型能夠吸引投資，但用于提升韌性、基于自然的解決方案以及“損失與損害”的資金仍然嚴重匱乏。

The tension between mitigation and adaptation financing remains acute: while large-scale renewable transitions attract investment, funding for resilience, nature-based solutions, and loss-and-damage remains severely under-resourced.

2019—2023年發(fā)達國家面向發(fā)展中國家的國際公共氣候資金承諾。數(shù)據(jù)來源：聯(lián)合國環(huán)境規(guī)劃署（UNEP）

第三，是治理與公平問題。大會將直面發(fā)達國家與發(fā)展中國家在碳市場、“損失與損害”機制以及問責框架方面日益擴大的分歧。同時，大會也將檢驗多邊主義的能力——能否容納多元形式的領(lǐng)導與創(chuàng)新，包括來自國家政府、城市、地區(qū)及原住民聯(lián)盟的多層級行動主體。

Third, governance and equity. The conference will confront widening divergences between developed and developing countries over carbon markets, loss-and-damage mechanisms, and accountability frameworks. It will also test the capacity of multilateralism to accommodate plural forms of leadership and innovation, from national governments to cities, regions, and Indigenous coalitions.

在此背景下，COP30的成果可能重新定義全球承諾如何向市級行動層層傳導。對適應性融資的擴大、更明確的基于自然解決方案指標、以及對生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務的認可，都將直接影響地方氣候戰(zhàn)略。以綠色基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、社會包容與適應性設(shè)計為核心的“韌性城市”理念，正呼應著亞馬孫所體現(xiàn)的“人類與自然系統(tǒng)共生”倫理。

In this light, the outcomes of COP 30 could redefine how global commitments cascade into municipal action. Enhanced financing for adaptation, clearer metrics for nature-based solutions, and recognition of ecosystem services can directly influence local climate strategies. The principle of resilient cities integrating green infrastructure, social inclusion, and adaptive design mirrors the Amazonian ethic of coexistence between human and natural systems.

巴西的實踐——如圣保羅的防洪管理、庫里提巴的城市再造林，以及累西腓的參與式住房計劃——展示了國家政策框架如何推動市級的創(chuàng)新試驗。

Brazilian experiences such as flood management in S?o Paulo, urban reforestation in Curitiba, and participatory housing in Recife exemplify how national frameworks can foster city-level experimentation.

因此，COP30的“亞馬孫視角”凸顯了生態(tài)韌性與城市韌性之間的一體化連續(xù)性。它呼吁一種范式轉(zhuǎn)變：可持續(xù)性不再被視為發(fā)展與環(huán)境之間的二選一，而是一種面向地球福祉與城市福祉的整體性路徑。

Thus, the “Amazon lens” of COP 30 underscores the continuity between ecological and urban resilience. It invites a paradigm shift in which sustainability is no longer framed as a trade-off between development and environment, but as an integrated approach to planetary and civic well-being.

COP30將直接考驗多邊治理本身。自迪拜的COP28以來，發(fā)達國家與發(fā)展中國家在公平性、碳市場以及問責機制上的分歧進一步擴大。此次峰會在全球南方舉行，既要調(diào)和這些裂痕，又必須維持其作為一個以科學為基礎(chǔ)、強調(diào)公平的集體行動平臺的公信力，可謂面臨雙重挑戰(zhàn)。

COP 30 will test multilateral governance itself. Divergences between developed and developing countries over equity, carbon markets, and accountability mechanisms have widened since COP 28 in Dubai. As the summit unfolds in the Global South, it faces the dual challenge of mediating these divides while maintaining credibility as a science-based, equitable forum for collective action.

歸根結(jié)底，COP30的真正意義，將不取決于其宣言規(guī)模的宏大，而在于它是否能夠彌合關(guān)鍵裂痕：減緩與適應之間、生態(tài)與經(jīng)濟之間、全球愿景與地方現(xiàn)實之間的鴻溝。其成功與否，系于國際社會能否將道義上的緊迫感轉(zhuǎn)化為制度性重塑，把韌性、公平與科學誠信植入全球決策的核心。從這個意義上說，COP30不僅是又一個里程碑，它更是在考驗人類是否具備能力，將自身發(fā)展重新校準至地球生態(tài)邊界之內(nèi)的試金石。

Ultimately, COP 30’s true significance will be measured by its potential to bridge divides: between mitigation and adaptation, between ecology and economy, and between global vision and local reality and less by the scale of its declarations. Its success depends on whether the international community can transform moral urgency into institutional redesign, embedding resilience, equity, and scientific integrity at the heart of global decision-making. In this sense, COP 30 is more than another milestone; it is a test of humanity’s capacity to realign its developmental trajectory with the ecological boundaries of the Earth.

COP30的亞馬孫場景將這一悖論轉(zhuǎn)化為一次道義與政治的考驗：它提醒人們，多邊體系的有效性，衡量標準不在于宣言措辭的優(yōu)美，而在于成果是否切實可見。

The Amazonian setting of COP 30 transforms this paradox into a moral and political test, a reminder that the effectiveness of the multilateral system should be judged not by the elegance of its declarations, but by the tangibility of its outcomes.

從這個意義上講，COP30不僅僅是又一次大會；它是檢驗國際氣候治理體系公信力的試金石，也是衡量人類能否將自身發(fā)展范式重新校準至地球承載極限之內(nèi)的標尺。

In this sense, COP30 is not merely another conference; it is a litmus test for the credibility of the international climate regime and a measure of humanity’s capacity to realign its development paradigm with the limits of the planet.

梅里·馬達沙希：世界需要公平的全球治理體系

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