注：本文原發(fā)于深度星球北京時間4月11日的內(nèi)容，部分內(nèi)容已刪減，完整版可在文末獲取。

Sean's take : https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

We've seen investor sentiment and positioning flip this week after a temporary ceasefire deal early in the week. Equities jumped, crude dumped, and VIX cooled off. This came after last week's bounces from key support levels across several key names. A few key indicators are flashing signs of a reversal from bearish to bullish. However, the most important one remains crude oil, which, despite all the charades Trump is trying to put on to mask his defeat, remains in a bullish trend. Oil price differentials have converged back to pre-war levels.

在周初達(dá)成一項臨時?；饏f(xié)議后，投資者情緒與倉位出現(xiàn)了逆轉(zhuǎn)。股市飆升，原油暴跌，波動率指數(shù)降溫。在此之前，上周多個關(guān)鍵標(biāo)的均從關(guān)鍵支撐位反彈。一些關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)正在閃爍著從看空轉(zhuǎn)向看多的反轉(zhuǎn)信號。然而，最重要的指標(biāo)仍然是原油，盡管特朗普試圖粉飾其失敗，但原油依然處于看漲趨勢之中。 原油價差已收斂至戰(zhàn)前水平。

圖：全球原油基準(zhǔn)（Global Crude Benchmarks，日線，截至2026-04-10）

CL posted a clean break last Thursday following Trump's disappointing address on the Iran war on Wednesday night. It then tested our multi-year resistance around 117 before reversing sharply lower on the temporary ceasefire deal. It is now sitting on major support as the world watches the negotiations this weekend. A failure to reopen the Strait will send crude back to test the major resistance around 117, after which comes 140, and then 180-200. If a reopening of the Strait is agreed upon and put on a clear timetable, CL will start heading back into the 80s.

上周三晚特朗普就伊朗戰(zhàn)爭發(fā)表了令人失望的講話后，WTI原油（CL）在上周四實現(xiàn)了干脆的向上突破。隨后，原油測試了我們指出的117附近的多重年度阻力位，之后因臨時?；饏f(xié)議而大幅反轉(zhuǎn)走低。目前，全世界都在關(guān)注本周末的談判，原油正處于重要支撐位上方。如果海峽未能重新開放，原油將回升并再次測試117附近的主要阻力位，突破后將看向140，然后是180-200。如果各方就重新開放海峽達(dá)成一致并制定明確的時間表，WTI原油將開始回落至80美元區(qū)間。

圖：WTI原油期貨（CL，日線，截至2026-04-10）

圖：WTI原油期貨（CL，月線，截至2026-04-10）

A meaningful breach from the box consolidation. If it doesn't reclaim the box in the next few sessions, it's likely to head lower.

這是一次對箱體震蕩區(qū)間的有效跌破。如果不能在接下來的幾個交易日內(nèi)收復(fù)該箱體，大概率將進(jìn)一步走低。

圖： 布倫特原油期貨（BZ，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Gold faces significant resistance around the 4770 level. It has attempted to thrust higher since Wednesday, but could not hold above 4770 into the close. A clean break above this key resistance will open the door to more upside. If it starts to reverse from here, the major trendline around 4.1K comes into play.

黃金在4770點位附近面臨重大阻力。自周三以來，金價試圖向上突圍，但收盤未能企穩(wěn)于4770上方。如果能干凈利落地突破這一關(guān)鍵阻力位，將打開進(jìn)一步上漲的空間。如果從當(dāng)前位置開始反轉(zhuǎn)，4.1K附近的主要趨勢線將成為關(guān)鍵支撐。

圖：黃金（Gold，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Silver needs to climb above 79 to see more upside.

白銀需要攀升至79上方才能看到更多上漲空間。

圖：白銀（Silver，日線，截至2026-04-10）

After backtesting the key 5.55 level from above earlier this week, it has put in a nice, clean thrust higher. For now, the structure has turned from bearish to bullish. Unless we see an escalation in the Middle East, copper is set to head higher to test the upper channel.

銅價在本周初自上而下回測了5.55的關(guān)鍵支撐位后，走出了漂亮、利落的上攻行情。目前來看，技術(shù)形態(tài)已由看空轉(zhuǎn)為看多。除非中東局勢升級，否則銅價有望走高，測試通道上軌。

圖：銅期貨（HG，日線，截至2026-04-10）

DXY gapped down following the ceasefire deal. 99 remains the key level to watch, and DXY has struggled to post a clean close above this level since the ceasefire deal. For now, it looks bearish. This supports equities and gold in the short term.

美元指數(shù)在?；饏f(xié)議達(dá)成后向下跳空。99仍然是需要關(guān)注的關(guān)鍵點位，自?；饏f(xié)議以來，美元指數(shù)一直未能明確收于該水平上方。目前來看，美元走勢偏空。這在短期內(nèi)對股市和黃金構(gòu)成支撐。

圖：美元指數(shù)（DXY，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Yields are flat this week despite the ceasefire headlines, and U 2Y yields are still hanging on to the key 3.8% level. The equity market seems to have bought into the idea of a permanent peace deal and a reopening of the Strait, but the bond market disagrees. As long as the war drags on, we should see higher oil prices for longer higher inflation expectations>higher yields>lower equity multiples especially for long-duration names such as the M7. As long as the Strait is not back in business, we should expect higher oil prices and higher yields across the globe.

盡管有?；鸬念^條新聞，但本周收益率表現(xiàn)平平，美國2年期國債收益率仍堅守在3.8%的關(guān)鍵水平。股票市場似乎已經(jīng)買入了永久和平協(xié)議和海峽重新開放的預(yù)期，但債券市場并不認(rèn)同。只要戰(zhàn)爭拖延下去，我們就應(yīng)該會看到油價維持在更高水平的時間更長，從而推高通脹預(yù)期 > 推高收益率 > 壓低股票估值乘數(shù)，特別是對于如“科技七巨頭”（M7）等長久期資產(chǎn)而言。只要海峽沒有恢復(fù)通航，我們就應(yīng)預(yù)期全球油價和收益率都將走高。

圖： 美國2年期國債收益率（US2Y，日線，截至2026-04-10）

In the short term, 3.8% and 3.6% are the key support levels to watch, while 4% acts as resistance. Should yields start to grind higher from the current level, a retest of the recent high around 4% is very much in play.

短期內(nèi)，3.8%和3.6%是需要關(guān)注的關(guān)鍵支撐位，而4%則是阻力位。如果收益率從當(dāng)前水平開始震蕩攀升，則極有可能重新測試4%附近的近期高點。

圖：美國2年期國債收益率（US2Y，日線，截至2026-04-10）

圖：美國10年期國債收益率（US10Y，日線，截至2026-04-10）

US30Y left a fakeout before reversing lower back below the resistance this week. It remains a key asset to monitor, as a confirmed breakout would bring devastating consequences for global equities.

美國30年期國債收益率本周在走出假突破后，反轉(zhuǎn)回落至阻力位下方。它仍是需要監(jiān)控的關(guān)鍵資產(chǎn)，因為一旦確認(rèn)有效突破，將對全球股市帶來毀滅性的后果。

圖：美國30年期國債收益率（US30Y，日線，截至2026-04-10）

VIX posted a clean break below the key trendline support following the ceasefire deal. This structure is not supportive of our ES shorts. It must climb back above the trendline early next week; otherwise, we face an increasingly strong buffer against equity downside.

波動率指數(shù)在停火協(xié)議達(dá)成后，干脆利落地跌破了關(guān)鍵的趨勢線支撐。這種結(jié)構(gòu)對我們的標(biāo)普500期貨（ES）空頭倉位不利。它必須在下周初重新攀升至該趨勢線之上；否則，我們將面臨股市下行過程中越來越強(qiáng)的緩沖阻力。

圖：波動率指數(shù)（VIX，日線，截至2026-04-10）

We went short SPX before the war started, called the bottom when SPX was trading around 6370, and warned of significant upside risk should a ceasefire deal be reached before Tuesday's deadline. We turned bearish again this Thursday, shorting near the highs. I also posted an article on X yesterday regarding the U.S.-Iran negotiations. View the translated version here. A clean breach above the downtrend resistance around 6870 (ES=6910) should invalidate my downside thesis and open the door to new ATHs. The risk-reward on this setup is too asymmetric to ignore.

我們在戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)前做空了標(biāo)普500指數(shù)，在標(biāo)普交投于6370點附近時精準(zhǔn)抄底，并警告稱如果周二最后期限前達(dá)成?；饏f(xié)議，將存在巨大的上行風(fēng)險。本周四我們再次轉(zhuǎn)為看空，在接近高點的位置建立了空倉。我昨天還在X（原Twitter）上發(fā)布了一篇關(guān)于美伊談判的文章。

如果能有效突破6870附近的下行趨勢阻力位（ES=6910），我的看跌邏輯將被證偽，并打開通往歷史新高的大門。這一交易設(shè)置的風(fēng)險收益比極具不對稱優(yōu)勢，不容忽視。

圖：標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（SPX，日線，截至2026-04-10）

NDX backtested the major trendline from below on Friday. A clean break above it should invalidate my downside thesis, and the market would gradually turn back to the Al theme.

納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)周五自下而上回測了主要趨勢線。如果能有效突破該趨勢線，將證偽我的看跌邏輯，市場將逐步回歸AI主線。

圖：納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)（NDX，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Dow bounced precisely from our 45K support level.

道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)精準(zhǔn)地從我們給出的45000點支撐位反彈。

圖：道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)（DJI，日線，截至2026-04-10）

Backtesting the uptrend resistance from below. A clean break will open the door to a new ATH.

羅素2000指數(shù)正自下而上回測上行趨勢阻力位。若能有效突破，將打開通往歷史新高的大門。

圖：羅素2000指數(shù)（RUT，日線，截至2026-04-10）

圖：日經(jīng)225指數(shù)（NIKKEI，日線，截至2026-04-10）

印度Nifty 50指數(shù)、富時100指數(shù)、半導(dǎo)體ETF、NVDA、GOOGL、TSLA、PLTR、MSFT、META、AMZN、AAPL...

Good luck and Godspeed!

祝各位好運(yùn)，交易順利！

完整內(nèi)容訂閱鏈接：Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

本文所涉及一切內(nèi)容僅供分享參考，接收人不因閱讀本文而被視為我方客戶，也不構(gòu)成向任何人發(fā)出出售或購買證券或其他投資標(biāo)的的邀請，更不構(gòu)成交易依據(jù)。市場有風(fēng)險，投資需謹(jǐn)慎，本文所有信息及觀點均不構(gòu)成任何投資建議；過往業(yè)績不代表未來表現(xiàn)，投資者應(yīng)依據(jù)自身風(fēng)險承受能力進(jìn)行審慎評估、獨(dú)立決策并自行承擔(dān)全部責(zé)任。任何情況下，我方均不對因使用本文內(nèi)容而產(chǎn)生的任何損失承擔(dān)責(zé)任。相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)可能存在滯后或誤差，我方不對信息的完整性及準(zhǔn)確性承擔(dān)法律責(zé)任。