注：本文原發(fā)于深度星球北京時(shí)間3月28日的Tactical Positioning專欄，部分內(nèi)容已刪減，完整版可在文末獲取。

Sean's take : https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

“原油端面臨的嚴(yán)峻斷供危機(jī)正將 WTI 油價(jià)推向 100 美元的敏感關(guān)口。這種持續(xù)的能源通脹預(yù)期，不僅迫使全球長端國債收益率加速飆升，更使得美元指數(shù)逼近危險(xiǎn)的 100-101 區(qū)間。一旦美元在此企穩(wěn)，勢(shì)必將對(duì)全球權(quán)益資產(chǎn)估值與宏觀流動(dòng)性造成毀滅性的去杠桿打擊。

與此同時(shí)，美股大盤已全面滑向“生死邊緣”。標(biāo)普 500 指數(shù)遺憾失守 6.55K 的關(guān)鍵陣地，若短期內(nèi)無法收復(fù)，下行趨勢(shì)將徹底確立；而納指則在跌破并受阻于 24.2K 后，面臨著極深度的回調(diào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

在避險(xiǎn)端，飆升的收益率與強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元的組合正在大幅削弱黃金的危機(jī)溢價(jià)。金價(jià)在跌穿 4.7-4.75K 趨勢(shì)線后，目前正于 4K 這一不容有失的多空生命線附近艱難尋底，一旦實(shí)質(zhì)性跌破將面臨災(zāi)難性后果...

Trump TACO'd on Monday morning. Oil was dumped to the low 80s, while NQ gained almost 1,000 handles in minutes. However, the market is tired of Trump's lies, and the spike was entirely erased before the market opened on Friday.

特朗普在周一早間又上演了 TACO 戲碼。原油被拋售跌至 80 出頭，而納指期貨100期貨指數(shù)在幾分鐘內(nèi)飆升了近 1000 點(diǎn)。但市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)厭倦了特朗普的謊言，這波拉升在周五開盤前已經(jīng)被全數(shù)抹去。

Note that Trump pulled a similar TACO move on Thursday right after the market closed by extending the strike deadline by 10 more days. This spike was much smaller than the Monday spike, when Trump extended the strike deadline by 5 days, and it was immediately sold off.

值得注意的是，特朗普在周四收盤后故技重施，再次采取了類似的 TACO 舉動(dòng)，將打擊期限延長了 10 天。這次引發(fā)的拉升幅度遠(yuǎn)小于周一（當(dāng)時(shí)他將期限延長了 5 天），而且漲幅同樣很快就被市場(chǎng)賣回去。

In past TACO moves, the market almost always gave Trump the benefit of the doubt when he extended the deadline. Sometimes, we even saw the market trade above the level it was at before the conflict began after he TACO'd. We all know the U.S. has lost this war unless it decides to launch a ground invasion.

在過去的 TACO 舉動(dòng)中，只要特朗普延長最后期限，市場(chǎng)幾乎總是會(huì)選擇相信他。有時(shí)我們甚至?xí)吹皆谒?TACO 之后，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格反而超過了沖突爆發(fā)前的水平。我們都清楚，除非美國決定發(fā)動(dòng)地面入侵，否則這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭美國已經(jīng)輸了。

WTI was once again hovering around the key 100 level as of the market close on Friday. Dozens of countries have run out of oil reserves, and dozens more are weeks, if not days, away from running out. The situation will only get worse in April. See the chart below from JPM.

截至周五收盤，WTI 原油再次在關(guān)鍵的 100 關(guān)口附近徘徊。已有數(shù)十個(gè)國家的石油儲(chǔ)備已經(jīng)耗盡，另有數(shù)十個(gè)國家的儲(chǔ)備距離耗盡僅剩幾周甚至幾天的時(shí)間。4 月的情況只會(huì)更糟。下方這張摩根大通的圖就能說明問題。

圖1：來自波斯灣與東南亞的石油流向——摩根大通

Oil prices start to converge after Trump TACO'd on Monday.

特朗普在周一上演了 TACO 戲碼后，油價(jià)開始收斂。

圖2：全球原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格（日線，截至2026-03-27）

The 100 level remains a strong ST resistance that CL must break to sustain upside momentum. The next resistance sits around its recent high near 120. Meanwhile, a break below the recent low of 84 would most likely indicate real progress in a ceasefire deal.

100 關(guān)口依然是強(qiáng)勁的短期阻力位，WTI原油期貨（CL）必須突破該位置才能維持上行動(dòng)能。下一個(gè)阻力位在其近期高點(diǎn)附近，大約 120 一帶。與此同時(shí)，如果跌破近期84的低點(diǎn)，則極有可能預(yù)示著?；饏f(xié)議取得了實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展。

圖3：WIT原油（CL）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Brent's technicals remain stronger than WTI's, as the U.S. does not rely on the Middle East to meet its oil demand.

布倫特原油的技術(shù)面依然強(qiáng)于 WTI 原油，因?yàn)槊绹⒉灰蕾囍袞|來滿足其石油需求。

圖4：布倫特原油（BZ）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

After breaching below the trendline support around 4.7-4.75K, gold entered freefall and found a bottom at 4.1K, 100 handles above the major trendline support. As I noted long ago, gold tends to outperform before and after a crisis, but not during one.

在跌破 4700-4750 附近的趨勢(shì)線支撐后，黃金進(jìn)入自由落體狀態(tài)，并在 4100 處觸底，該位置比那條主要趨勢(shì)線支撐高出 100 個(gè)點(diǎn)。正如我很久之前指出的那樣，黃金往往在危機(jī)爆發(fā)前和危機(jī)結(jié)束后表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異，但在危機(jī)期間則不然。

This played out very well for us, as we were able to both catch the rally all the way to the very top and short at the very top. I also warned once again about an imminent selloff when gold rallied back to 5.4K.

這一點(diǎn)在我們過去的交易中得到了完美印證，我們不僅吃到了全程的上漲利潤，還在最高點(diǎn)成功做空。當(dāng)黃金反彈回 5400 時(shí)，我也曾再次警告拋售即將到來。

Gold tends to show strong positive correlations to risk assets when a crisis hits, and then decouples at some point and outperforms thereafter. The Iran conflict still has a very large effect on gold's path, as a continued conflict will keep oil prices elevated, and therefore inflation and inflation expectations elevated, which leads to higher long-end yields, a selloff in long-duration assets such as the Magnificent 7, and a stronger dollar as deleveraging progresses. Both higher yields and a stronger dollar do not bode well for a bullish gold thesis.

當(dāng)危機(jī)來襲時(shí)，黃金往往會(huì)先與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)出強(qiáng)烈的正相關(guān)性，隨后在某個(gè)節(jié)點(diǎn)脫鉤，并在此后跑贏大盤。伊朗沖突依然對(duì)黃金的走勢(shì)有著巨大的影響，因?yàn)闆_突若持續(xù)，油價(jià)將保持高位，進(jìn)而推高通脹和通脹預(yù)期，這會(huì)導(dǎo)致長端收益率上升、引發(fā)長久期資產(chǎn)（如科技七巨頭 M7）的拋售，并在去杠桿推進(jìn)過程中強(qiáng)化美元。收益率上升和美元走強(qiáng)，對(duì)黃金的多頭邏輯來說都不是好兆頭。

If the situation starts to stabilize, and gold manages not to break below the vital support around 4K, then if it manages to climb above the recent support-turned-resistance around 4.55K and another resistance around 4.65K, we could see gold rally from there to make a new ATH.

如果局勢(shì)開始企穩(wěn)，且黃金能夠守住 4000 附近這一關(guān)鍵支撐，那么只要它重新站上此前支撐（如今已轉(zhuǎn)為阻力的 4500 附近，以及更上方 4650 附近的另一道阻力），我們就有機(jī)會(huì)看到黃金由此展開的反彈，并創(chuàng)出歷史新高。

Note that 4K is very, very important for gold to sustain any upward move. A clean break below it would be devastating for gold.

需要注意的是，4000 對(duì)于黃金維持任何上行趨勢(shì)都極其、極其重要。一旦被干凈利落地跌破，對(duì)黃金將是毀滅性的打擊。

圖5：黃金（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Note that silver bounced from its major trendline support on Monday. Similar to gold, a break below silver's major trendline would be devastating, as we would likely see a move back into the 50s.

需要注意的是，白銀在周一從其主要趨勢(shì)線支撐位反彈。與黃金類似，跌破主要趨勢(shì)線對(duì)白銀將是毀滅性的，因?yàn)槲覀兒芸赡軙?huì)看到它重新回到 50 多的區(qū)間。

On the upside, 72 remains the ST resistance, as silver has struggled to break above it over the past few days. We need to see a clean break above 80 to signal more upside.

上行方面，72 仍然是短線阻力位，因?yàn)檫^去幾天白銀一直難以突破該位置。我們需要看到價(jià)格有效突破 80，才能確認(rèn)更多上行空間。

圖6：白銀（日線，截至2026-03-27）

After breaching the lower bound of the box support, copper has struggled to reclaim it. Unless it reclaims the key 5.55 resistance, momentum remains to the downside.

銅在跌破箱體支撐的下軌后，一直難以將其收復(fù)。除非它能重新站上 5.55 的關(guān)鍵阻力位，否則動(dòng)能依然向下。

圖7：銅期貨（HG）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

DXY needs to sit above 100-101 for a few days to see more upside. Should it occur, we'd see a collapse in equities.

美元指數(shù)（DXY）需要在 100-101 上方企穩(wěn)幾天，才能看到更多的上行空間。如果出現(xiàn)這種情況，股市將迎來一輪明顯下挫。

圖8：美元指數(shù)（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Yields worldwide continue to explode to the upside, as we expected. Higher oil prices for longer -> higher inflation expectations -> higher long-end yields -> lower equity multiples, especially for long-duration names such as the M7.

正如我們所預(yù)期的那樣，全球收益率繼續(xù)向上爆發(fā)。“油價(jià)在更長時(shí)間內(nèi)保持高位-通脹預(yù)期抬升-長端收益率走高-股市估值倍數(shù)下殺”（），這對(duì)于長久期標(biāo)的（如科技七巨頭 M7）尤為不利。

As long as the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz is not back in business, we should expect higher oil prices and higher yields across the globe.

只要戰(zhàn)爭還在繼續(xù)，且霍爾木茲海峽的航運(yùn)未恢復(fù)正常，我們就應(yīng)預(yù)期全球范圍內(nèi)將會(huì)出現(xiàn)更高的油價(jià)和更高的收益率。

圖9：美國2年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖10：美國10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Note that the US 30Y has broken above resistance. If it doesn't fall back below it, the consequences could be devastating.

值得注意的是，美國 30 年期國債收益率已經(jīng)向上突破阻力位。如果它不回落至該水平下方，后果可能會(huì)極其慘烈。

圖11：美國30年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖12：德國10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖13：法國10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖14：英國10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖15：加拿大10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖16：韓國10年期國債收益率（日線，截止2026-03-27）

圖17：日本10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖18：波動(dòng)率指數(shù)（VIX）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

“我也許來早了，但我沒有錯(cuò)。”——《大空頭》

圖19：SPX生命線（月線，截至2026-03-27）

圖20：SPX生命線（周線，截至2026-03-27）

As I mentioned before, Trump cares about only four things: 1) stock market performance; 2) Treasury yields; 3) inflation expectations; and 4) his approval ratings. If you look at past TACOs, the majority of them happened precisely when either Treasury yields hit an intolerable level or SPX dropped to a key support that had to be defended. As the greatest market manipulator of all time, he understands the significance of key levels just like we do.

正如我之前提到的，特朗普只關(guān)心四件事：1）股市表現(xiàn)；2）美債收益率；3）通脹預(yù)期；以及 4）他的支持率。如果你回顧過去的 TACO 時(shí)刻，就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)其中的絕大多數(shù)都恰好發(fā)生在美債收益率觸及他難以忍受的水平，或者 SPX 跌至某個(gè)必須死守住的關(guān)鍵支撐位之時(shí)。作為史上最偉大的市場(chǎng)操縱者，他跟我們一樣清楚關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)位的重要性。

SPX broke below the key 6.55K level last Friday, and futures tanked further before the market opened on Monday. To fix this, Trump extended the strike deadline on Iran by 5 days before Monday's open, and NQ gained 1,000 handles in just minutes.

SPX 指數(shù)上周五跌破了 6550 點(diǎn)的關(guān)鍵水平，而在周一開盤前，期貨進(jìn)一步大跌。為了救場(chǎng)，特朗普在周一開盤前將對(duì)伊朗的打擊最后期限延長了 5 天，結(jié)果NQ在短短幾分鐘內(nèi)飆升 1000 點(diǎn)。

More interestingly, abnormal buying in equity futures and selling in oil futures were spotted minutes before the announcement. This was, without a doubt, insider trading that generated hundreds of millions in profit in just 20 minutes. The beauty of technical analysis is that we don't need insider information to know where the money is flowing.

更有趣的是，在公告發(fā)布前幾分鐘，市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)了期指的異常買盤和原油期貨的異常賣盤。毫無疑問，這是內(nèi)幕交易，而且僅僅在 20 分鐘內(nèi)就創(chuàng)造了數(shù)億美元的利潤。技術(shù)分析最美妙的地方就在于，我們并不需要內(nèi)幕信息，就能知道資金流向何處。

After Monday's open, I posted a desk note on Trump's TACO move and stayed bearish on equities despite the headlines. The gist was that the price action from that TACO, despite its intimidating magnitude, did not bring about any structural change to our outlook. On Thursday and Friday, the market accelerated to the downside.

周一開盤后，我在交易臺(tái)筆記里發(fā)布了一篇關(guān)于特朗普這次 TACO 舉動(dòng)的點(diǎn)評(píng)，并在鋪天蓋地的頭條新聞面前依然維持對(duì)美股的看空立場(chǎng)。核心邏輯是，盡管這次 TACO 引發(fā)的行情聲勢(shì)駭人，但并沒有對(duì)我們的整體結(jié)構(gòu)判斷造成任何改變。到了周四和周五，市場(chǎng)下跌開始加速。

Momentum remains to the downside unless SPX reclaims 6.55K.

除非 SPX 重新站上 6550 點(diǎn)，否則動(dòng)能依然向下。

圖21：標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（SPX）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

As expected, NDX extended to the downside after posting a clean break below the key support around 24.2K last week. Despite Trump's efforts to pump the market, NDX was rejected at 24.2K from below from Monday through Wednesday.

正如預(yù)期的那樣，NDX 在上周干凈利落地跌破 24200 點(diǎn)附近的關(guān)鍵支撐后，本周繼續(xù)向下延伸。盡管特朗普試圖托市，但從周一到周三，NDX 在反抽 24200 點(diǎn)下方時(shí)均遭到拒絕（承壓回落）。

圖22：納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)（NDX）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

People called me crazy when I first shared this chart back in January. Unless we see a material shift in the Iran conflict, this remains the most probable path from here.

今年 1 月我第一次分享這張圖表時(shí)，很多人都覺得我瘋了。除非我們?cè)谝晾蕸_突中看到實(shí)質(zhì)性的轉(zhuǎn)變，否則這依然是后市最有可能的演變路徑。

圖23：納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)（NDX）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Dow bounced precisely from our support minutes before the close on Friday. 45K should act as solid ST support. A clean break below would be devastating. I expect a bounce from this level. A break below 45K opens the door to 42K, after which comes 38K.

道指（Dow）在周五收盤前幾分鐘，精準(zhǔn)地從我們給出的支撐位展開反彈。45000 點(diǎn)應(yīng)該會(huì)構(gòu)成堅(jiān)實(shí)的短線支撐。一旦有效跌破，后果將是毀滅性的。我預(yù)計(jì)價(jià)格會(huì)從這里出現(xiàn)反彈。若跌破 45000 點(diǎn)，則將打開下探 42000 點(diǎn)的大門，再往下看則是 38000 點(diǎn)。

圖24：道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)（DJI）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖25：道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)（DJI）（1分鐘線，截至2026-03-27）

更多后續(xù)討都在深度星球了...

我們將在深度交易星球同步更新內(nèi)部的實(shí)時(shí)交易和市場(chǎng)評(píng)論等面板。

星球的定位是在一年訂閱期內(nèi)，由Sean執(zhí)筆對(duì)應(yīng)Tactical Positioning欄目，專注美股、債券等美盤內(nèi)容。屬于我們的任務(wù)是處理虧損而非盈利，因?yàn)橛约簳?huì)照顧好自己。

深度星球加入鏈接：https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

Sean‘s take：https://t.zsxq.com/LvoAV

更多歷史內(nèi)容：

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