IPP評(píng)論是國(guó)家高端智庫(kù)華南理工大學(xué)公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平臺(tái)。

導(dǎo)語(yǔ)：

“殘酷的現(xiàn)實(shí)是，我們未能確保全球升溫幅度控制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)?！甭?lián)合國(guó)秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)古特雷斯6日在貝倫氣候峰會(huì)上如此警告。

世界氣象組織發(fā)布的最新報(bào)告顯示，極端高溫特征在2025年仍將持續(xù)，這一年或?qū)⒊蔀橛杏涗浺詠?lái)第二或第三熱的年份。全球多地頻繁遭遇強(qiáng)臺(tái)風(fēng)與極端高溫。然而，與不斷加劇的氣候危機(jī)形成鮮明對(duì)比的是，全球氣候合作卻呈現(xiàn)疲軟態(tài)勢(shì)。美國(guó)等大國(guó)缺乏參與意愿，各國(guó)在責(zé)任分配、資金支持以及能源轉(zhuǎn)型等問(wèn)題上也難以達(dá)成協(xié)調(diào)。

在此背景下，11月10日，《聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化框架公約》第三十次締約方大會(huì)（COP30）在巴西貝倫召開(kāi)。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普史無(wú)前例地并未派遣官方高級(jí)別代表團(tuán)出席。盡管形勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻，本屆大會(huì)仍肩負(fù)重要使命——新一輪國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)（NDCs）。國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)是《巴黎協(xié)定》的核心機(jī)制，而2025年恰逢協(xié)定達(dá)成十周年，是各國(guó)“交卷”的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)。COP30需要進(jìn)一步把“守住1.5攝氏度紅線”的目標(biāo)具體化，轉(zhuǎn)化為切實(shí)可行的氣候治理與協(xié)作措施。

在IPP榮譽(yù)教授、聯(lián)合國(guó)教科文組織國(guó)際創(chuàng)意和可持續(xù)發(fā)展中心顧問(wèn)理事梅里·馬達(dá)沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）看來(lái)，本屆COP30 的關(guān)鍵不在于程序性文件，而在于它所揭示的氣候治理格局變化：美國(guó)等傳統(tǒng)主導(dǎo)力量的退場(chǎng)，使全球氣候機(jī)制出現(xiàn)前所未有的政治空缺；相反，全球南方的集體崛起正推動(dòng)氣候議程從過(guò)去的自上而下談判，轉(zhuǎn)向由新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體和跨國(guó)城市網(wǎng)絡(luò)等共同塑造的多中心架構(gòu)。

她認(rèn)為，這種力量重組，將深刻影響未來(lái)氣候規(guī)則的制定方式，也將決定氣候治理能否在長(zhǎng)期分歧中找到新的支點(diǎn)。

*本文作者：梅里·馬達(dá)沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

華南理工大學(xué)公共政策研究院（IPP）榮譽(yù)教授、聯(lián)合國(guó)教科文組織國(guó)際創(chuàng)意和可持續(xù)發(fā)展中心（ICCSD）顧問(wèn)理事

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ;

member of Advisory Board of UNESCO International Centre for Creative Economy and Sustainable Development（ICCSD）

正文

COP30：全球氣候治理的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)

COP 30 as a Turning Point in Global Climate Governance

引言

Introduction

近幾個(gè)月來(lái)，氣候變化帶來(lái)的現(xiàn)實(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)愈發(fā)凸顯——2025年全球最強(qiáng)熱帶氣旋在11月短短幾天內(nèi)兩度襲擊菲律賓。臺(tái)風(fēng)“卡爾馬吉”（菲律賓當(dāng)?shù)胤Q“蒂諾”）橫掃菲律賓中部，引發(fā)山洪和泥石流，菲律賓島嶼省份宿務(wù)遭受的沖擊尤為嚴(yán)重，整個(gè)居民社區(qū)被沖垮，造成慘重的人員傷亡。隨后，這場(chǎng)臺(tái)風(fēng)還繼續(xù)向越南方向移動(dòng)。

The physical risks of a changing climate were underlined in recent months when the world’s most powerful tropical cyclone of 2025 hit the Philippines twice in a few days in November 2025. Typhoon Kalmaegi made a landfall across central Philippines causing flash floodings and landslides particularly in the province of Cebu, where the entire communities were washed away with a heavy death toll. It then moved towards Vietnam.

就在“卡爾馬吉”過(guò)后沒(méi)幾天，臺(tái)風(fēng)“鳳凰”又以185公里/小時(shí)的持續(xù)風(fēng)速、最高達(dá)230公里/小時(shí)的陣風(fēng)襲擊菲律賓，導(dǎo)致140萬(wàn)人流離失所或緊急撤離。數(shù)日之內(nèi)連遭兩場(chǎng)重大風(fēng)暴的情形，也讓當(dāng)?shù)爻鞘信c區(qū)域韌性面臨巨大壓力。

Just days after Kalmaegi, Fung-Wong hit the Philippines with sustained winds of 185 km/h and gust up to 230 km/h, displacing 1.4 million people. This show of back-to-back major storms within days reveals the acute stress on urban and regional resilience systems.

而在不久之前，臺(tái)風(fēng)“樺加沙”登陸中國(guó)南部。格蘭瑟姆研究所（Grantham Institute）開(kāi)展的一項(xiàng)快速歸因研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，氣候變化使臺(tái)風(fēng)“樺加沙”發(fā)生的可能性提高了約49%。中國(guó)南部大約36%的損失可歸因于人為變暖。變暖還讓“樺加沙”的風(fēng)速增強(qiáng)約7%，降雨量增加約12%。

Shortly before, Typhoon Ragasa stroke Southern China. A rapid-attribution study by the Grantham Institute found that climate change made Ragasa about 49% more likely, with roughly 36% of the damage in southern China attributed to anthropogenic warming. Its winds were boosted by approximately 7% and rainfall by 12% due to warming.

今年七月，巴基斯坦的季風(fēng)洪災(zāi)造成逾300人死亡，超過(guò)4,000個(gè)村莊被淹沒(méi)，并破壞了沿印度河的大量基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，包括主要道路和橋梁。

In July this year, the Pakistan Monsoon Floods, killed more than 300 people, submerged over 4,000 villages, and damaged extensive infrastructure including major roads and bridges along the Indus River.

根據(jù)2025年5月有多個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)合發(fā)布的《氣候變化與全球極端高溫升級(jí)報(bào)告》（Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat）顯示，在研究開(kāi)展期間，全球約40億人、占世界人口49%的人群，至少經(jīng)歷了30天的極端高溫。在195個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)，氣候變化使極端高溫天數(shù)至少增加了一倍。這種普遍的高溫壓力對(duì)城市健康、建筑設(shè)計(jì)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施韌性以及綠地規(guī)劃都帶來(lái)了深遠(yuǎn)影響。

According to the Report on Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat (May 2025), four billion people, 49 percent of the global population, experienced at least 30 days of extreme heat during the study period. In 195 countries and territories, climate change has at least doubled the number of extreme-heat days. This pervasive heat stress carries major implications for urban health, building design, infrastructure resilience, and the planning of green spaces.

這研究還引用了“2024–2025年野火狀況”數(shù)據(jù)報(bào)告（發(fā)表于期刊Earth System Science Data）指出，2024年1至3月期間，亞馬孫東北部出現(xiàn)的極端火災(zāi)天氣條件，由于人為原因，發(fā)生可能性提高了30至70倍；剛果盆地也出現(xiàn)了類似的模式。這些熱帶森林火災(zāi)事件對(duì)生物多樣性、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)及碳儲(chǔ)存造成嚴(yán)重破壞，并造成空氣質(zhì)量惡化、人口遷移以及流域系統(tǒng)中斷等，對(duì)周邊城市地區(qū)產(chǎn)生了影響。

The same study, referring to State of Wildfires 2024–2025 (Copernicus ESSD), notes that in northeast Amazonia, extreme fire-weather conditions during January to March 2024 were 30 to 70 times more likely due to anthropogenic climate forcing, a pattern also observed in the Congo Basin. These tropical forest fire events severely affected biodiversity, ecosystem services, and carbon storage, and they also influenced nearby urban regions through degraded air quality, population displacement, and disruptions to watershed systems.

同樣令人警警惕的是2024年秋季西班牙瓦倫西亞地區(qū)出現(xiàn)的極端降雨——單日降水量相當(dāng)于當(dāng)?shù)匾徽甑钠骄邓?。隨之而來(lái)的山洪暴發(fā)導(dǎo)致大量房屋被毀，并造成嚴(yán)重的人員傷亡。

Equally alarming was the extreme rainfall in Spain’s Valencia region during autumn 2024, where a single day’s precipitation equaled the annual average. The resulting flash floods caused widespread destruction of homes and significant loss of life.

近幾個(gè)月接連發(fā)生的極端天氣事件引發(fā)全球關(guān)注，并帶來(lái)了一個(gè)非常緊迫的問(wèn)題：氣候變化的影響正在以何等速度加?。空缏?lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門(mén)委員會(huì)（IPCC）所警告的那樣：

This dramatic series of extreme weather events in recent months has captured global attention and raised pressing questions about the accelerating impacts of climate change. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns,

“這些變化中有許多是前所未有的，其中一些趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)不可逆轉(zhuǎn)；而另一些變化——例如持續(xù)的海平面上升——在未來(lái)數(shù)百年至數(shù)千年內(nèi)都將‘不可逆’?！?“Many of these changes are unprecedented, and some of the shifts are already in motion, while others, such as continued sea-level rise, are ‘irreversible’ for centuries to millennia.”

該機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步指出，除非在短期內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)二氧化碳及其他溫室氣體的“快速且深度的減排”，否則《巴黎協(xié)定》的目標(biāo)將難以實(shí)現(xiàn)。

The Panel further cautions that unless “rapid and deep reductions in CO? and other greenhouse-gas emissions” occur soon, the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement will slip beyond reach.

然而，隨著全球持續(xù)升溫、災(zāi)難性事件愈發(fā)頻繁，一些曾在強(qiáng)大政治支持下大力推動(dòng)氣候行動(dòng)的政府，如今似乎正逐漸與當(dāng)下的挑戰(zhàn)脫節(jié)。

Yet as the world grows hotter and catastrophic events increase, governments that once championed climate action with strong political backing appear increasingly disengaged from today’s challenges.

聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化框架公約 — 第30次締約方大會(huì)（COP30）

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - COP 30

11月12日，世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人齊聚巴西帕拉州首府貝倫，出席《聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化框架公約》第30次締約方大會(huì)（COP30）。此次會(huì)議再次將自然保護(hù)融入COP的議程之中。

On 12 November 2025, world leaders gathered in Belém, the capital of Brazil’s Pará state, for the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP 30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reaffirming that nature conservation is now firmly embedded in the COP agenda.

然而，一個(gè)重大的地緣政治變化已然顯現(xiàn)。中國(guó)、俄羅斯、澳大利亞、印度尼西亞、土耳其和日本的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人均未出席。最引人注目的是，美國(guó)在過(guò)去三十年里一直以最高級(jí)別參與氣候進(jìn)程，這一次卻未派出任何高級(jí)官員。自全球氣候機(jī)制啟動(dòng)以來(lái)，這還是首次——世界上歷史累計(jì)排放量最大的國(guó)家事實(shí)上缺席了談判桌。

A major geopolitical shift, however, was evident. Leaders from China, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Japan were absent. Most strikingly, the United States, participating at the highest levels for three decades, sent no senior officials. For the first time since the global climate process began, the world’s largest historical emitter was effectively missing from the table.

特朗普政府退出了國(guó)內(nèi)外多個(gè)旨在減少化石燃料使用的重要承諾。美國(guó)不僅阻止國(guó)際社會(huì)設(shè)定石油基塑料生產(chǎn)上限，還阻撓通過(guò)全球首個(gè)航運(yùn)排放稅，削弱了全球氣候治理的努力。這一大幅的政策轉(zhuǎn)向與私營(yíng)部門(mén)在氣候領(lǐng)域取得的顯著進(jìn)展形成鮮明對(duì)比；而私營(yíng)部門(mén)如今正面臨來(lái)自政治不確定性、財(cái)政壓力以及地緣政治碎片化的日益嚴(yán)峻的阻力。

Under the Trump presidency, the United States has withdrawn from key commitments to curb fossil-fuel use, both domestically and internationally. It has undermined global efforts by blocking an international limit on petroleum-based plastics production and preventing adoption of the world’s first tax on shipping emissions. This policy U-turn stands in stark contrast to the remarkable climate advances of the private sector, which now confront growing headwinds from political uncertainty, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical fragmentation.

盡管面臨這些障礙，氣候經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在持續(xù)擴(kuò)張。自2015年以來(lái)，涵蓋太陽(yáng)能光伏、風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)、電動(dòng)汽車和電池等領(lǐng)域的全球綠色技術(shù)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)了近四倍，年規(guī)模已超過(guò)7,000億美元，展現(xiàn)出商業(yè)可行性。

Despite these obstacles, the climate economy continues to expand. Since 2015, the global market for green technologies, including solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries, has nearly quadrupled, surpassing $700 billion annually and demonstrating the sector’s commercial viability.

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇“CEO氣候領(lǐng)袖聯(lián)盟”（Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders）的成員企業(yè)，年收入合計(jì)超過(guò)4萬(wàn)億美元，它們?cè)?019至2023年間整體減排12%，同時(shí)收入增長(zhǎng)20%。然而，如果缺乏一致且連貫的政府政策，這些進(jìn)展仍然脆弱且易受沖擊。

Members of the World Economic Forum’s Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, representing more than $4 trillion in revenues, collectively reduced emissions by 12 percent while increasing revenues by 20 percent between 2019 and 2023. Yet this progress remains vulnerable without coherent government policy.

巴西成為COP30東道國(guó)，有何重要意義

The Significance of Brazil as Host

在亞馬孫雨林的門(mén)戶貝倫舉辦COP30——這一地區(qū)擁有全球最大熱帶雨林約60%的面積——巴西傳遞了一個(gè)清晰的信息：自然不是氣候穩(wěn)定的邊緣議題。

By hosting COP 30 in Belém, gateway to the Amazon rainforest, which contains roughly 60 percent of the world’s largest tropical forest, Brazil sends an unmistakable message: nature is central, not peripheral, to climate stability.

這是首次在亞馬孫流域召開(kāi)締約方大會(huì)。該地區(qū)既是地球最大的碳匯之一（碳匯就是能將空氣里的CO?固定下來(lái)的地方），也是最脆弱的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)之一，其象征意義極為深遠(yuǎn)。亞馬孫既是生物多樣性的庇護(hù)所，也是全球生態(tài)健康的晴雨表。在此舉辦COP30，強(qiáng)調(diào)了環(huán)境保護(hù)、人類安全與氣候治理之間深度交織、相互依存的關(guān)系。

This is the first COP ever convened in the Amazon Basin, a region that represents both one of the planet's greatest carbon sinks and one of its most fragile ecosystems. The symbolism is profound. The Amazon functions simultaneously as a sanctuary of biodiversity and a barometer of global ecological health. Holding COP 30 here underscores the deep interdependence between environmental conservation, human security, and climate governance.

亞馬孫的會(huì)議地點(diǎn)也表明，所謂“韌性”，不僅屬于森林，也關(guān)乎可持續(xù)、具備氣候適應(yīng)力的城市設(shè)計(jì)。正如聯(lián)合國(guó)所強(qiáng)調(diào)的那樣，COP30是檢驗(yàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》機(jī)制能否轉(zhuǎn)化為實(shí)際成果的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)。正如聯(lián)合國(guó)秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)古特雷斯所表示的那樣：“COP30必須開(kāi)啟一個(gè)加速落實(shí)的十年?！?/p>

The Amazonian setting offers a powerful metaphor for resilience one that extends beyond forests to the design of sustainable, climate-adaptive cities. As the United Nations emphasizes, COP 30 represents a critical juncture for assessing whether the mechanisms of the Paris Agreement are delivering tangible results. “COP 30 must ignite a decade of acceleration and delivery.” The stakes are indeed formidable.

巴西自身的城市實(shí)踐——從圣保羅的防洪管理改革，到庫(kù)里提巴的可持續(xù)交通項(xiàng)目——展示了國(guó)家層面的承諾如何在市級(jí)推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新行動(dòng)。將全球氣候談判置于世界最大熱帶雨林的腹地，COP30強(qiáng)調(diào)了生態(tài)韌性與城市韌性之間不可分割的連續(xù)性，而這種連續(xù)性正是實(shí)現(xiàn)公平且可持續(xù)的全球轉(zhuǎn)型所不可或缺的基礎(chǔ)。

Brazil’s own urban experiments, from flood-management reforms in S?o Paulo to sustainable mobility initiatives in Curitiba, illustrate how national commitments can drive innovative action at the municipal level. By situating global climate negotiations in the heart of the world’s largest tropical forest, COP 30 reinforces the essential continuity between ecological and urban resilience, a continuity fundamental to achieving a just and sustainable global transition.

盡管《巴黎協(xié)定》曾帶來(lái)強(qiáng)勁動(dòng)力，但全球排放量迄今仍沿著一條可能突破1.5°C閾值的軌跡上升?！?023年全球盤(pán)點(diǎn)》（全球減緩氣候變化進(jìn)展的評(píng)估報(bào)告，每次評(píng)估期為兩年）顯示，即使各國(guó)提交的國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)（NDCs）得到全面落實(shí)，本世紀(jì)末全球升溫仍將達(dá)到約2.5–2.9°C。因此，貝倫大會(huì)不僅是提升氣候目標(biāo)雄心的關(guān)鍵契機(jī)，更是通過(guò)實(shí)施、融資與問(wèn)責(zé)機(jī)制，將既有承諾落到實(shí)處的關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻。

Despite the momentum generated by the Paris Agreement (2015), global emissions remain on a trajectory that risks surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold. The 2023 Global Stock revealed that the commitments submitted by Parties, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), would, if fully implemented, still result in an estimated 2.5–2.9 °C of warming by the end of the century. The conference in Belém therefore represents a pivotal opportunity not only to strengthen ambition but also to operationalize existing commitments through implementation, finance, and accountability mechanisms.

國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)

Nationally Determined Contributions

到2025年，各國(guó)必須提交第三代國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)（“NDCs 3.0”），作為迄今最具雄心的氣候承諾。

By 2025, countries were required to submit their third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions “ NDCs 3.0’ representing their most ambitious climate pledges yet.

截至2024–2025年，已經(jīng)提交新版國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)的國(guó)家。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：世界資源研究所（WRI）旗下 Climate Watch 平臺(tái)的 NDC Tracker

這些覆蓋 2025—2035年的更新版國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)（NDCs），必須體現(xiàn)出與全球升溫1.5°C目標(biāo)相一致的顯著進(jìn)展。然而，推進(jìn)速度一直十分緩慢。根據(jù)Climate Watch的NDC追蹤器，截至中國(guó)在11月3日提交新版 NDC時(shí)，只有69個(gè)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體——占全球溫室氣體排放量的61%——提交了相關(guān)計(jì)劃。

These updated NDCs, covering the 2025-2035 period, must have demonstrated significant progression aligning with the 1.5°C temperature goal. But progress has been sluggish. According to the Climate Watch NDC Tracker,with China submitting on 3 November, only 69 major economies, representing 61% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), have submitted these plans.

這相當(dāng)于僅減少10%的排放量。要滿足《巴黎協(xié)定》的要求、將升溫控制在1.5°C以內(nèi)，全球需要實(shí)現(xiàn)60%的減排。盡管如此，各國(guó)的回應(yīng)依然遲緩——而這與全球綠色技術(shù)市場(chǎng)的迅速擴(kuò)張形成鮮明對(duì)比。包括太陽(yáng)能光伏、風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)、電動(dòng)汽車和電池等在內(nèi)的綠色技術(shù)市場(chǎng)自2015年以來(lái)規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)了近四倍，年產(chǎn)值超過(guò)7,000億美元，充分證明了氣候經(jīng)濟(jì)的商業(yè)可行性。

This amount to a reduction of emissions of 10%. We would need 60% of the global community to stay within 1.5°C to meet the requirement of the Paris agreement. This sluggish response is even though the global market for green technologies, including solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries (as mentioned above), has nearly quadrupled since 2015 to exceed $700 billion annually, a testament to the commercial viability of the climate economy.

COP30的期望與挑戰(zhàn)

Expectations and Challenges for COP 30

在柏林舉行首屆締約方大會(huì)后的三十年間，全球氣候治理體系已從一個(gè)以外交談判為主的論壇，演變?yōu)橐粋€(gè)由多元主體參與的復(fù)雜治理體系。COP30正是這一轉(zhuǎn)型的集中體現(xiàn)。在《巴黎協(xié)定》簽署后的十年里，美國(guó)迅速成為全球最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)和出口國(guó)。

Three decades after the first COP in Berlin, the climate regime has evolved from a diplomatic negotiation forum into a complex system of multi-actor governance. COP 30 crystallizes this transformation. Over the decade since the Paris Agreement was signed, the United States rapidly become the world’s leading producer and exporter of gas.

特朗普政府不僅放棄了美國(guó)向世界作出的控制溫室氣體排放承諾，而且作為“反對(duì)派領(lǐng)袖”，施壓其他國(guó)家放緩應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的努力。

The Trump administration not only abandoned America’s promises to the rest of the world that it would control the greenhouse gas, but as the opposition leader, is pressuring other countries to similarly back away from efforts to fight climate change.

各國(guó) LNG（液化天然氣）出口量。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：S&P Global

與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)正加倍努力，致力于成為全球領(lǐng)先的“電力國(guó)家”（electrostate）以及綠色技術(shù)供應(yīng)國(guó)，并在氣候領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮引領(lǐng)作用。

Meanwhile, China is doubling down on its effort to become the world’s preeminent "electrostate" and supplier of green and a climate leader.

去年，中國(guó)新增的風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)和太陽(yáng)能電池板裝機(jī)量超過(guò)全球其他國(guó)家的總和。如今，中國(guó)在清潔能源產(chǎn)業(yè)中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，從專利技術(shù)到關(guān)鍵原材料均具有顯著優(yōu)勢(shì)，并正大量向全球輸出相關(guān)產(chǎn)品。中國(guó)企業(yè)正在巴西、泰國(guó)、摩洛哥和匈牙利建設(shè)電動(dòng)汽車及電池工廠。

China installed more wind turbines and solar panels last year than the rest of the world combined. It now dominates clean energy industries, from patented technologies to essential raw materials, and is selling a lot of it to the world. Chinese companies are building electric vehicle and battery factories in Brazil, Thailand, Morocco and Hungary.

長(zhǎng)期被邊緣化的全球南方國(guó)家，正通過(guò)更加積極的參與，開(kāi)始在氣候議程中將自身定位為“共同制定者”。本次大會(huì)也揭示了氣候治理體系正在形成的新結(jié)構(gòu)：權(quán)力與行動(dòng)倡議不再僅由傳統(tǒng)的西方國(guó)家所主導(dǎo)，而是越來(lái)越多地由新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體、次國(guó)家政府以及跨國(guó)城市網(wǎng)絡(luò)共同分擔(dān)與推動(dòng)。

The Global South, long peripheral in decision-making by their active presence, assert themselves as a co-author of the climate agenda. The conference also reveals an evolving architecture of climate governance. Power and initiative are no longer concentrated solely in traditional Western actors but increasingly shared among emerging economies, subnational governments, and transnational city networks.

巴西的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用正體現(xiàn)出這一轉(zhuǎn)變，將全球南方從以往氣候政策的被動(dòng)接受者，轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楣餐茉煳磥?lái)規(guī)則的參與者。在COP進(jìn)程中，城市、地區(qū)和原住民聯(lián)盟的重要性不斷提升，也展示了氣候治理權(quán)力的分散化趨勢(shì)——全球環(huán)境治理正向一種更加多中心的結(jié)構(gòu)邁進(jìn)。巴西的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)正是這一變化的縮影，努力在發(fā)展需求與生態(tài)責(zé)任之間尋求平衡。

Brazil’s leadership reflects this shift, positioning the Global South not as a passive recipient of climate policy but as a co-author of its future. The growing prominence of cities, regions, and Indigenous coalitions within the COP process also illustrates a decentralization of agency a move toward a more polycentric form of global environmental governance. Brazil’s leadership embodies this shift, seeking to reconcile developmental imperatives with ecological stewardship.

將COP30置于亞馬孫雨林的象征遠(yuǎn)不止森林保護(hù)本身：它也促使人們思考如何將生態(tài)平衡、適應(yīng)能力和氣候正義的原則應(yīng)用于城市環(huán)境。城市承載著全球一半以上的人口，并產(chǎn)生超過(guò)70%的溫室氣體排放，因而正日益被視為氣候行動(dòng)的前線。貝倫的討論因此對(duì)城市政策、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施規(guī)劃以及氣候治理具有深遠(yuǎn)意義。

The symbolic power of convening COP 30 in the Amazon extends beyond forest preservation: it also invites reflection on how the principles of ecological balance, adaptation, and justice can be applied to urban environments. Cities, home to more than half of humanity and responsible for over 70 percent of greenhouse-gas emissions are increasingly recognized as critical frontlines of climate action. The discussions in Belém thus have profound implications for urban policy, infrastructure planning, and climate governance.

COP30被廣泛視為對(duì)《巴黎協(xié)定》公信力以及全球政治意愿的一次關(guān)鍵檢驗(yàn)。它不僅關(guān)乎技術(shù)層面的談判，更是一場(chǎng)關(guān)于“信任”的較量——發(fā)生在南北之間、國(guó)家與公民之間、人類發(fā)展與生態(tài)邊界之間。各方的核心期待主要集中在三個(gè)領(lǐng)域。

COP 30 is widely regarded as a test of the Paris Agreement’s credibility and of the world’s collective political will. Beyond technical negotiations, it embodies a contest of trust — between North and South, state and citizen, human development and ecological limits. Central expectations revolve around three domains.

首先，是目標(biāo)雄心的差距。各方需在 2026 年前提交與 1.5°C 路徑相一致的更新版國(guó)家自主貢獻(xiàn)（NDCs）。COP30的成敗，將取決于包括主要新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體在內(nèi)的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，能否在逐步淘汰化石燃料、擴(kuò)大可再生能源體系方面展現(xiàn)出可衡量的實(shí)際進(jìn)展。

First, the ambition gap. Parties are expected to submit updated NDCs aligned with the 1.5 °C pathway before 2026. The success of COP 30 will depend on whether major economies, including emerging ones, demonstrate measurable progress in phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up renewable systems.

其次，是氣候融資。作為東道主，巴西希望推動(dòng)承諾超越長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)每年 1000億美元的融資目標(biāo)，并建立機(jī)制，使發(fā)展中國(guó)家和次國(guó)家層級(jí)能夠直接獲得資金。這一點(diǎn)對(duì)適應(yīng)性措施尤為關(guān)鍵，因?yàn)樵谶^(guò)去的氣候融資結(jié)構(gòu)中，適應(yīng)一直相對(duì)于減緩行動(dòng)嚴(yán)重資金不足。

Second, climate finance. Brazil, as host, seeks to expand commitments beyond the long-standing USD 100 billion annual pledge and to establish instruments that grant developing nations and subnational entities direct access to funds. This is especially crucial for adaptation, a dimension historically underfinanced relative to mitigation.

《巴黎協(xié)定》的核心原則之一，是承認(rèn)各國(guó)承擔(dān)的責(zé)任不同。富裕的工業(yè)化國(guó)家理應(yīng)支持較貧窮國(guó)家向可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型，并幫助其應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變暖帶來(lái)的影響。

One of the key tenets of the Paris Agreement was an acknowledgement that countries had different responsibilities. Wealthy industrialized countries were supposed to support poorer countries on transition to renewable energy and adapt to the problems brought on by a hotter climate.

去年，各國(guó)達(dá)成共識(shí)，到2035年，每年需要籌集總計(jì)1.3萬(wàn)億美元，以幫助發(fā)展中國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)氣候損害，其中包括富裕國(guó)家每年提供3000億美元的公共資金。這一規(guī)模遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了迄今富裕國(guó)家實(shí)際提供的水平，而這些資金將從何而來(lái)至今仍不確定。

Last year, countries agreed that a total of $1.3 trillion would be needed every year by 2035 to help developing countries manage climate harms, including $300 billion a year in public monies from rich countries. That’s far more than what rich countries have so far made available. Where that money will come from is still uncertain. Expectation concerning climate finance long recognized as the cornerstone of implementation.

巴西已明確表示，“即便缺乏美國(guó)在政治和技術(shù)上的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力，世界也必須繼續(xù)前行?！蓖瑫r(shí)，它強(qiáng)調(diào)將推動(dòng)各方承諾超越長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)每年1000億美元的融資目標(biāo)，并建立機(jī)制，使發(fā)展中國(guó)家和地方政府能夠更便捷地直接獲得氣候資金。

Brazil has signaled that, “The world must be moving on, even without U.S. political and technological leadership, ” and emphasis its intentions to push for expanded commitments beyond the long-standing USD 100 billion annual pledge and to establish mechanisms that facilitate direct access to finance for developing nations and local governments.

減緩與適應(yīng)之間的融資緊張關(guān)系依舊突出：盡管大規(guī)模可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型能夠吸引投資，但用于提升韌性、基于自然的解決方案以及“損失與損害”的資金仍然嚴(yán)重匱乏。

The tension between mitigation and adaptation financing remains acute: while large-scale renewable transitions attract investment, funding for resilience, nature-based solutions, and loss-and-damage remains severely under-resourced.

2019—2023年發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家面向發(fā)展中國(guó)家的國(guó)際公共氣候資金承諾。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：聯(lián)合國(guó)環(huán)境規(guī)劃署（UNEP）

第三，是治理與公平問(wèn)題。大會(huì)將直面發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家與發(fā)展中國(guó)家在碳市場(chǎng)、“損失與損害”機(jī)制以及問(wèn)責(zé)框架方面日益擴(kuò)大的分歧。同時(shí)，大會(huì)也將檢驗(yàn)多邊主義的能力——能否容納多元形式的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)與創(chuàng)新，包括來(lái)自國(guó)家政府、城市、地區(qū)及原住民聯(lián)盟的多層級(jí)行動(dòng)主體。

Third, governance and equity. The conference will confront widening divergences between developed and developing countries over carbon markets, loss-and-damage mechanisms, and accountability frameworks. It will also test the capacity of multilateralism to accommodate plural forms of leadership and innovation, from national governments to cities, regions, and Indigenous coalitions.

在此背景下，COP30的成果可能重新定義全球承諾如何向市級(jí)行動(dòng)層層傳導(dǎo)。對(duì)適應(yīng)性融資的擴(kuò)大、更明確的基于自然解決方案指標(biāo)、以及對(duì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)的認(rèn)可，都將直接影響地方氣候戰(zhàn)略。以綠色基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、社會(huì)包容與適應(yīng)性設(shè)計(jì)為核心的“韌性城市”理念，正呼應(yīng)著亞馬孫所體現(xiàn)的“人類與自然系統(tǒng)共生”倫理。

In this light, the outcomes of COP 30 could redefine how global commitments cascade into municipal action. Enhanced financing for adaptation, clearer metrics for nature-based solutions, and recognition of ecosystem services can directly influence local climate strategies. The principle of resilient cities integrating green infrastructure, social inclusion, and adaptive design mirrors the Amazonian ethic of coexistence between human and natural systems.

巴西的實(shí)踐——如圣保羅的防洪管理、庫(kù)里提巴的城市再造林，以及累西腓的參與式住房計(jì)劃——展示了國(guó)家政策框架如何推動(dòng)市級(jí)的創(chuàng)新試驗(yàn)。

Brazilian experiences such as flood management in S?o Paulo, urban reforestation in Curitiba, and participatory housing in Recife exemplify how national frameworks can foster city-level experimentation.

因此，COP30的“亞馬孫視角”凸顯了生態(tài)韌性與城市韌性之間的一體化連續(xù)性。它呼吁一種范式轉(zhuǎn)變：可持續(xù)性不再被視為發(fā)展與環(huán)境之間的二選一，而是一種面向地球福祉與城市福祉的整體性路徑。

Thus, the “Amazon lens” of COP 30 underscores the continuity between ecological and urban resilience. It invites a paradigm shift in which sustainability is no longer framed as a trade-off between development and environment, but as an integrated approach to planetary and civic well-being.

COP30將直接考驗(yàn)多邊治理本身。自迪拜的COP28以來(lái)，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家與發(fā)展中國(guó)家在公平性、碳市場(chǎng)以及問(wèn)責(zé)機(jī)制上的分歧進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。此次峰會(huì)在全球南方舉行，既要調(diào)和這些裂痕，又必須維持其作為一個(gè)以科學(xué)為基礎(chǔ)、強(qiáng)調(diào)公平的集體行動(dòng)平臺(tái)的公信力，可謂面臨雙重挑戰(zhàn)。

COP 30 will test multilateral governance itself. Divergences between developed and developing countries over equity, carbon markets, and accountability mechanisms have widened since COP 28 in Dubai. As the summit unfolds in the Global South, it faces the dual challenge of mediating these divides while maintaining credibility as a science-based, equitable forum for collective action.

歸根結(jié)底，COP30的真正意義，將不取決于其宣言規(guī)模的宏大，而在于它是否能夠彌合關(guān)鍵裂痕：減緩與適應(yīng)之間、生態(tài)與經(jīng)濟(jì)之間、全球愿景與地方現(xiàn)實(shí)之間的鴻溝。其成功與否，系于國(guó)際社會(huì)能否將道義上的緊迫感轉(zhuǎn)化為制度性重塑，把韌性、公平與科學(xué)誠(chéng)信植入全球決策的核心。從這個(gè)意義上說(shuō)，COP30不僅是又一個(gè)里程碑，它更是在考驗(yàn)人類是否具備能力，將自身發(fā)展重新校準(zhǔn)至地球生態(tài)邊界之內(nèi)的試金石。

Ultimately, COP 30’s true significance will be measured by its potential to bridge divides: between mitigation and adaptation, between ecology and economy, and between global vision and local reality and less by the scale of its declarations. Its success depends on whether the international community can transform moral urgency into institutional redesign, embedding resilience, equity, and scientific integrity at the heart of global decision-making. In this sense, COP 30 is more than another milestone; it is a test of humanity’s capacity to realign its developmental trajectory with the ecological boundaries of the Earth.

COP30的亞馬孫場(chǎng)景將這一悖論轉(zhuǎn)化為一次道義與政治的考驗(yàn)：它提醒人們，多邊體系的有效性，衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不在于宣言措辭的優(yōu)美，而在于成果是否切實(shí)可見(jiàn)。

The Amazonian setting of COP 30 transforms this paradox into a moral and political test, a reminder that the effectiveness of the multilateral system should be judged not by the elegance of its declarations, but by the tangibility of its outcomes.

從這個(gè)意義上講，COP30不僅僅是又一次大會(huì)；它是檢驗(yàn)國(guó)際氣候治理體系公信力的試金石，也是衡量人類能否將自身發(fā)展范式重新校準(zhǔn)至地球承載極限之內(nèi)的標(biāo)尺。

In this sense, COP30 is not merely another conference; it is a litmus test for the credibility of the international climate regime and a measure of humanity’s capacity to realign its development paradigm with the limits of the planet.

梅里·馬達(dá)沙希：世界需要公平的全球治理體系

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