注：本文截取自Sean原發(fā)于北京時(shí)間4月10日晚的X推文及星球內(nèi)容，部分內(nèi)容已刪減，更多內(nèi)容可在文末獲取。

The U.S. and Iran are now negotiating the negotiations as the world watches for a resolution this weekend. I do not think the U.S. and Iran can reach a permanent peace agreement, and the market is underpricing the repercussions.

美國(guó)和伊朗目前正在就談判本身進(jìn)行交涉，全世界都在關(guān)注本周末能否達(dá)成決議。我認(rèn)為美國(guó)和伊朗無(wú)法達(dá)成永久性的大型和平協(xié)議，而市場(chǎng)目前對(duì)由此產(chǎn)生的連鎖反應(yīng)定價(jià)不足。

On Trump's side, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the top priority, even more urgent in the short term than making sure Iran does not get nukes. But as long as the current Iranian government remains in place, that is not possible. This is not about insurers refusing to insure tankers or navies lacking the capacity to escort them. It is about shipping companies knowing they could lose the ship if they sail, while barrels sitting idle on ships in the Gulf could still earn decent money. As long as the current Iranian leadership remains, the threat remains, and normal shipping will not resume the way the U.S. wants.

就特朗普而言，重新開(kāi)放霍爾木茲海峽是當(dāng)務(wù)之急，短期來(lái)看，這甚至比確保伊朗不獲取核武器更為迫切。但只要現(xiàn)任伊朗政府繼續(xù)掌權(quán)，這就無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)。這不僅僅是因?yàn)楸ｋU(xiǎn)公司拒絕為油輪承保，或是海軍缺乏護(hù)航能力。關(guān)鍵在于，航運(yùn)公司深知一旦開(kāi)航就有可能損失船只，而停泊在海灣地區(qū)的閑置油輪依然能夠賺取可觀的利潤(rùn)。只要現(xiàn)今的伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層依然在位，威脅就始終存在，正常的航運(yùn)也無(wú)法按照美國(guó)所期望的方式恢復(fù)。

On Iran's side, the past 36 years of the regime have been built on portraying the U.S. as the enemy, not too dissimilar to North Korea. Now they control the Strait and can charge tolls to offset some of the pain the West has imposed on them through decades of sanctions. It is in both the Iranian government's and the Iranian people's interest to keep the Strait in their hands. It is a better weapon than nukes because tanker passage can be traded for diplomatic gains, restored relations, and the removal of decades-long sanctions. Oil is still the single most wanted commodity in the world, and not many countries produce more than they consume.

就伊朗而言，過(guò)去36年來(lái)，該政權(quán)的根基一直建立在將美國(guó)描繪成敵人的基礎(chǔ)之上，這與朝鮮的情況頗為相似。如今他們控制了海峽，并可通過(guò)收取通行費(fèi)來(lái)抵消西方數(shù)十年來(lái)實(shí)施制裁所造成的部分創(chuàng)傷。將海峽控制權(quán)掌握在自己手中，符合伊朗政府及伊朗人民的雙重利益。這是一個(gè)比核武器更好的籌碼，因?yàn)橛洼喌耐ㄐ袡?quán)可以被用來(lái)交換外交利益、恢復(fù)雙邊關(guān)系以及解除長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)十年的制裁。石油依然是全球最受追捧的單一商品，且產(chǎn)大于銷(xiāo)的國(guó)家屈指可數(shù)。

That is why I think the U.S. has already lost this war. Iran can choke the U.S. stock market, Treasury yields, inflation, and Trump's approval ratings without even playing all of its cards: several Iran-backed groups have either held back or entered only in a limited way so far. These are the only four things Trump truly cares about. If he keeps fighting Iran, he will lose control of all four. And lucky for Iran, all four are heavily influenced by oil prices. That is why Trump is so desperate to pull out. He will keep portraying this as a huge win even though the U.S. has in fact lost the war.

這就是為什么我認(rèn)為美國(guó)已經(jīng)輸?shù)袅诉@場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。伊朗甚至不需要打出所有底牌，就能扼住美國(guó)股市、美債收益率、通脹以及特朗普支持率的咽喉：迄今為止，幾個(gè)受伊朗支持的組織要么按兵不動(dòng)，要么只是進(jìn)行了有限的介入。這四點(diǎn)正是特朗普真正關(guān)心的全部。如果他繼續(xù)與伊朗交戰(zhàn)，他將失去對(duì)這四者的控制。而對(duì)伊朗有利的是，這四者都深受油價(jià)影響。這就是特朗普如此迫切想要抽身的原因。他會(huì)繼續(xù)將此粉飾為一場(chǎng)巨大勝利，盡管事實(shí)上美國(guó)已經(jīng)輸?shù)袅诉@場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

I see Trump with only two options.

我認(rèn)為特朗普目前只有兩個(gè)選擇。

1. Leave and declare victory.

撤退并宣布勝利。

He can try to tweet the market higher while Iran continues to hold de facto control of the Strait. Trump may feel pressured to go this route as the midterms approach. This would create short-term upside risk for equities, and we would likely see a sharp drop in crude futures as the market reprices stabilization. But by doing so, the U.S. hands Iran the button to push inflation higher whenever it wants. It also tells the world that the U.S. picked a fight with a seemingly much weaker opponent and lost. The U.S. has already lost many allies over the past year because of tariffs alone, and NATO countries have shown little willingness to help Trump in this war. This path means short-term gain and long-term pain. The dollar gets sold, Treasuries get sold, yields spike, and confidence in U.S. power erodes further.

他可以試圖通過(guò)發(fā)推特推高市場(chǎng)，同時(shí)任由伊朗繼續(xù)保持對(duì)海峽的實(shí)質(zhì)性控制。隨著中期選舉臨近，特朗普可能會(huì)感到有壓力要走這條路。這將為股市創(chuàng)造短期的上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并且隨著市場(chǎng)對(duì)局勢(shì)企穩(wěn)進(jìn)行重新定價(jià)，我們可能會(huì)看到原油期貨急劇下跌。但這樣做的話(huà)，美國(guó)等于把隨時(shí)推高通脹的按鈕交給了伊朗。這也向世界宣告，美國(guó)挑起了一場(chǎng)與一個(gè)看似弱小得多的對(duì)手的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，并最終落敗。過(guò)去一年里，單是關(guān)稅問(wèn)題就已經(jīng)讓美國(guó)失去了許多盟友，而北約國(guó)家也幾乎沒(méi)有表現(xiàn)出在這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中協(xié)助特朗普的意愿。這條路徑意味著短期利益與長(zhǎng)期痛苦。美元將被拋售，美債將被拋售，收益率將飆升，而外界對(duì)美國(guó)實(shí)力的信心將進(jìn)一步被侵蝕。

2.Permanently remove the threat.

永久性消除威脅。

That means a ground invasion, a bloodbath, and the removal and replacement of the Iranian leadership. If Trump manages to do this successfully, he saves his presidency and extends the life of U.S. power by reinforcing the idea that America is still militarily formidable. Confidence returns, crude falls, inflation eases, bonds rally, and equities recover.

這意味著地面入侵、一場(chǎng)血戰(zhàn)，以及推翻并替換伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層。如果特朗普能成功做到這一點(diǎn)，他就能挽救他的總統(tǒng)任期，并通過(guò)強(qiáng)化“美國(guó)在軍事上依然強(qiáng)大”的觀念來(lái)延續(xù)美國(guó)霸權(quán)的壽命。信心將回歸，原油下跌，通脹緩解，債券反彈，股市復(fù)蘇。

But if the U.S. invades and fails to accomplish its goal quickly, the consequences will be devastating. Oil will make new highs, inflation will make new highs, bonds will get crushed, and global risk assets will reprice violently lower. The world could become chaotic within one or two months.

但如果美國(guó)發(fā)動(dòng)入侵卻未能迅速實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)，其后果將是毀滅性的。油價(jià)將創(chuàng)下新高，通脹將創(chuàng)下新高，債券將遭到無(wú)情拋售，全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)將慘烈地向下重估。世界可能會(huì)在一兩個(gè)月內(nèi)陷入混亂。

Given all this, I think the U.S. will invade Iran, but the invasion will likely turn into a very long war. My base case is that this conflict is far from over, and that the market is still underestimating how hard it will be to get from a temporary ceasefire to a durable settlement. I therefore continue to think crude can move back higher, and that the broader macro path remains much more fragile than the current relief rally implies. I think this rally provides a very attractive setup for shorting equities. The upside is limited because the market has priced in far more peace than war, while the downside risk is even bigger than Trump’s lies. I could be very wrong, but the risk-reward is asymmetric, and it would be a shame not to take this trade.

鑒于上述所有因素，我認(rèn)為美國(guó)會(huì)入侵伊朗，但這場(chǎng)入侵很可能演變成一場(chǎng)曠日持久的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。我的基準(zhǔn)情形是，這場(chǎng)沖突遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束，而市場(chǎng)依然低估了從臨時(shí)?；鹱呦虺志媒鉀Q方案的難度。因此，我繼續(xù)認(rèn)為原油價(jià)格將重拾漲勢(shì)，且更廣泛的宏觀路徑依然比當(dāng)前釋然性反彈所反映的要脆弱得多。我認(rèn)為這輪反彈為做空股市提供了一個(gè)極具吸引力的入場(chǎng)時(shí)機(jī)。其上行空間有限，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)對(duì)“和平”的定價(jià)已遠(yuǎn)超對(duì)“戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”的定價(jià)，而下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)甚至比特朗普的謊言還要大。我可能會(huì)大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)，但這里的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益比是不對(duì)稱(chēng)的，如果錯(cuò)過(guò)這筆交易，那將是非常遺憾的。

另外補(bǔ)充兩則來(lái)自深度星球的問(wèn)答：

1. Q: I have followed you for a long time and understand you are mostly a macro-based trader. So I want to know how you see current market and what strategy at high level you plan to trade. Have you been through a period like this? The market basically has become ignorant to all bad news in my opinion. Vix has dropped to the pre-war level and oil still below 100 today. It's hard to believe if there is no some kind of institutional market manipulation.

我關(guān)注您很久了，也知道您主要是一位宏觀交易員。所以我想請(qǐng)教您如何看待當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)，以及在頂層策略上您計(jì)劃如何布局？您經(jīng)歷過(guò)類(lèi)似當(dāng)前這樣的時(shí)期嗎？在我看來(lái)，市場(chǎng)目前基本上對(duì)所有利空消息都已經(jīng)完全鈍化。Vix已經(jīng)回落至戰(zhàn)前水平，而今天油價(jià)依然徘徊在100美元下方。很難讓人相信這背后沒(méi)有某種機(jī)構(gòu)級(jí)別的市場(chǎng)操縱行為。

Sean:If you mean volatile markets, yes, I've been through countless ones. If you mean constant tweet bombs lifting the market every 15 minutes,no,this is a first for everyone.The market learned Trump's tactics last year: maximum pressure before negotiations to extract as much as possible, and almost every time,he got a deal.But I doubt that is the case this time. The number of troops deployed to the Middle East is still increasing. I don't think he is bringing that many Marines just to accept a truce. I could be wrong, but if I'm right, all the gains from the last two weeks could be wiped out in two days.

如果你指的是高波動(dòng)的市場(chǎng)，是的，我經(jīng)歷過(guò)無(wú)數(shù)次。但如果你指的是每隔15分鐘就有連番的“推特轟炸”來(lái)拉升市場(chǎng)，沒(méi)有，這對(duì)所有人來(lái)說(shuō)都是頭一遭。市場(chǎng)在去年就已經(jīng)摸透了特朗普的套路：在談判前進(jìn)行極限施壓以攫取最大籌碼，而且?guī)缀趺恳淮嗡寄苋缭高_(dá)成協(xié)議。但我懷疑這次的情況并非如此。部署在中東的軍隊(duì)數(shù)量仍在不斷增加。我不認(rèn)為他調(diào)動(dòng)這么多海軍陸戰(zhàn)隊(duì)過(guò)去，僅僅是為了接受一紙停戰(zhàn)協(xié)議。我可能會(huì)看錯(cuò)，但如果我對(duì)了，過(guò)去兩周積累的所有漲幅都可能在兩天內(nèi)被悉數(shù)抹平。

2.Q: hi,Sean,regarding your ES short position, are you planning to hold it over the weekend or close it before today's market close?

嗨，Sean，關(guān)于你的 ES空頭倉(cāng)位，你是打算持倉(cāng)過(guò)周末，還是在今天收盤(pán)前平倉(cāng)？

Sean:Depending on the tape,I may add NQ shorts or partically close the ES short before the weekend. Markets are volatile,and risk management is paramount.It's okay to sit on the sidelines until things becomes clearer. That is ,in my view, holding all cash is perfectly fine. For those who are in the trade,a smaller position size will be easier to manage in this environment.

這要取決于盤(pán)面表現(xiàn)，我可能會(huì)在周末前加倉(cāng)做空 NQ，或者部分平倉(cāng) ES 的空頭。目前市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)劇烈，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理至關(guān)重要。在局勢(shì)明朗之前，選擇退居場(chǎng)外觀望是完全沒(méi)問(wèn)題的。也就是說(shuō)，在我看來(lái)，全倉(cāng)持有現(xiàn)金是非常好的選擇。對(duì)于已經(jīng)在場(chǎng)內(nèi)交易的人來(lái)說(shuō)，在這種市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下，保持較小的倉(cāng)位規(guī)模會(huì)更容易管理。

Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

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